State Senator Ghazala Hahmi officially launches her bid for the 2025 Dem nomination for Virginia Lt. Gov.

Hashmi was first elected in 2019, flipping a seat in the Richmond suburbs

She is first South Asian and first Muslim State Senator in Virginia

https://twitter.com/bluevirginia/status/1785974065628315703

Aaron Rouse, Levar Stoney, and Babur Lateef have also announced on Dem side for Lt. Gov.

There could more joining what will likely be a crowded field

The race for Virginia Senate might come down to SD-31 between Democrat Russet Perry and Republican Juan Pablo Segura

It is a sprawling district with a mix of suburbs, exurbs, and rural areas

It went Youngkin +.5% in ‘21 to Wexton +5.5% in ‘22

Here are the different parts

1/6 The key for Democrats is to run up the score in what I call the “blue arm”

This is an affluent stretch of suburbs stretching from the Fairfax border to Leesburg

The odd shape comes from being bound by Route 7 in the South and the Potomac river to the North

2/6

🧵 On some numbers that jumped out on State Senate side now that we have all the reports

There were some big numbers for competitive primaries and general

Some challengers out raised sitting Senators…

1/10

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1648258654808809476

In terms of Democratic primary challengers

SD-13 Lashrecse Aird heavily out raised Joe Morrissey and has more COH

SD-35 Heidi Drauschak out raised Dave Marsden, but Marsden has more COH

SD-35 Stella Pekarsky out raised George Barker, but Barker has more COH

2/10

Here are updated early voting numbers for the Special Election to replace Jen Kiggans now that in-person early voting ended

55% of early votes are by mail/drop off v. 45% in-person

2022 in VA Beach saw 65% of early votes in-person v. 35% by mail

Why is that important?

1/4 In 2022, Luria won mail votes almost 3-1 in VA Beach

In-person early voting was closer, but Luria won 54%-46% in VA Beach

So Democrat Aaron Rouse will have big early vote lead bc mail ballots are majority now

Republican Kevin Adams has to make that up on Election Day

2/4

The 2022 results for the VA General Assembly districts are out thanks to @vpapupdates

If Democrats can replicate these results, then they would have a majority in both chambers

But state and Federal races can be different so have to keep that in mind when analyzing

1/4

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1594691097405571073

2022 results in most competitive VA State Senate seats:

SD-16 (Western Henrico): 54-44 D

SD-31 (Loudoun/Fauquier): 53-47 D

SD-27 (Fredericksburg/Stafford): 51-48.5 D

SD-24 (Williamsburg/Newport News): 50-49 D

SD-17 (Southside/Portsmouth): 50.2-49.8 D

2/4

Ok Virginia, take a few days off and recharge your batteries

But next year there are state elections with every State Senate and House of Delegates seat up for election

It is the first one since Roe was struck down

Abortion access and so much more will be on the ballot Democrats currently hold a 21-19 seat majority in the Virginia State Senate

If GOP take full control of state government, they can pass any bill they want and Glenn Youngkin will sign it

That includes abortion restrictions up to a full ban

After the end of in-person early voting, there are now 941,710 early votes in Virginia

More mail votes will push that above 950K by Tuesday

VPAP has not updated yet, but numbers from Dept. of Elections suggest 130,259 voted in-person last 2 days

1/4

results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/20… These numbers are below last year’s Governor’s race, but that’s expected with no statewide race this year

But 130,259 in-person votes in the last 2 days was higher than I expected and represents 20% of all in-person early votes

This suggest late interest in the Election

2/4

Voting will not change everything, but it can have huge impacts

Democrats had complete control of Virginia government for 2 years in 2020 and 2021

There was a lot passed that was easy to miss

It changed Virginia into most progressive state in the South

Some highlights…

1/7 In terms of abortion

Eliminated:

- 24 hour waiting period

- Ultra sound and counseling requirement

- Need to be hospital to perform more than 5 abortions a month

Allowed:

- Nurse practitioners to provide services in first trimester

2/7

nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1…

State elections are more important than ever

The only reason no new abortion restrictions are likely in Virginia is bc Dems won a 1 seat majority in the State Senate in 2019

BUT all of Virginia’s State Senate and House of Delegates seats are up for election in 2023…

1/6

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1540341933448495113

If Dems don’t win either State Senate or House of Delegates in 2023, GOP could pass any abortion restrictions they want

Governor Youngkin supports at least a 15 week ban

There would be nothing preventing a ban much earlier either

So here’s the state of play…

2/6

So Hung Cao surprises everyone and is the VA-10 GOP nominee

Time for a 🧵

Changes some assumptions about the General Election match up with Rep. Wexton

This is still a seat Biden carried by 18% and McAulliffe by 2%

Hard to argue Dems don’t start off as favorites

But…

1/7 Clearly Cao ran a strong campaign, although this was not a traditional primary and only the most diehard Republicans vote in these contests

His immigrant and veteran story resonated

At same time, he is right on social issues and Dems will remind voters of this

2/7

Better Dem response to CRT

We should be proud of how much America has overcome in its history

We are not all the way there, but have made real progress

Need to teach good and bad so children have full appreciation of how far America has come and the work still to do

Then…

https://twitter.com/theplumlinegs/status/1460277827220221952

Pivot to saying CRT distracts from bigger issues our schools face

Children come to school hungry, Dems want to make sure those kids get quality meals

Children go to schools that are falling apart, Dems want to fix those schools

Will debating CRT solve these problems?

Here’s the thing about infrastructure bill, it didn’t just randomly happen to be bipartisan

It had to be bipartisan bc Manchin would not support it through reconciliation

So there is a whole legislative strategy by Biden that is largely missed

More 👇

forbes.com/sites/andrewso… After COVID stimulus passed by reconciliation, Manchin said next bill had to be bipartisan

Given 50-50 Senate, Biden had to listen to Manchin

He could have gotten mad at Manchin, but that would not have accomplished anything

So Biden had multiple round of negotiations w Rs

Tangier Island is one of the most fascinating places in Virginia and the country

It is a small island in the middle of the Chesapeake Bay closer to mainland MD than VA w no road connection

Its inhabitants are very religious and very pro-Trump…

https://twitter.com/chesbayjournal/status/1458151676397989890

Unfortunately the island faces major challenges as it is slowly reclaimed by the Chesapeake and may not survive the 21st century

Many point to climate change as the main culprit and rising sea levels

Most people living there are skeptical and blame natural erosion

Here is something on how each side wins and ?s

For Democrats, familiar formula

Drive up margins in NOVA and get African-American vote to turn out in healthy numbers

Don’t want to ignore latter bc African Americans make up 20% of population and break ~90% D Similar to Georgia formula and like there African-Americans are backbone of Democratic Party

Give Democrats huge base of voters in multiple parts of VA

Important not to take for granted and GOTV

Virginia wouldn’t have had blue streak without them

Here is VERY rough estimate of the Democratic early vote lead right now

Please don't quote this as 100% accurate, it is just a guess

Any estimate of the early vote lead is a guess

Feel free to disagree

Also math is back of envelope so lots of rounding

Let's get started...👇 First, mail ballots are easy because general consensus they break 75-25 Dem

This is because Rs largely don't vote this way and most of these votes come from D areas

There are currently 284K mail ballots (but this will still grow)

Right now Democrats net 142K just from these

So I will need some time for deep dive into data for final early vote analysis

For now, some big picture stuff

I don’t see narrative Dems lack enthusiasm

Maybe 2 weeks ago? but not now

People need to adjust their priors as things change Polls may be off because a lot are assuming low Dem enthusiasm and am not seeing that

For sure, Republicans also have enthusiasm too, but narrative of just one side enthused is not showing up in early vote

It shows late upsurge of voting in Dem areas

People are curious who is up in the early vote

I can’t do full analysis until in person early voting ends on Saturday

I will do very very very conservative (literally and figuratively) estimate right now

There are 600K+ in person votes

240K mail ballots

Follow for math 👇 Let’s assume in person is 50-50, this is almost certainly underestimating Democrats bc SW lagging so much

Let’s assume mail is 75-25 D bc Republicans don’t vote this way and mainly from D areas

Democrats would still be up 120K net votes from early vote