Global Geopolitical Shifts
Did you miss these?

1. Tariffs against China - Trump has gone back on the trade war with the Chinese, and it a big W for Xi Jinping. China didn't blink, and that upgrades its strategic positioning hugely on the global power table.
चीन से कट्टी ख़तम, और बुच्ची की ओर कदम।

2. War on terror - Trump has gone back on the fight against Yemeni Houthis, and has pulled away. Armed forces issued order to move out. The Houthis have won. Read that again.
और नहीं लड़ना मुझे हूथी से, बहुत हुआ। कट्टी ख़तम।

3. Netanyahu left high and dry - Trump is completely bypassing Netanyahu, while he goes to the Middle-East and tries cutting deals with big powers there. He perhaps realizes Netanyahu has used the US to his private advantage.
बहुत हुआ तेरा खेल नेतू अब मैं अपना खेल खेलूंगा।

4. Trump saunters into subcontinent - Trump is casually making comments on the most strategic aspects of the India-Pakistan issue, fully aware that India cannot do much in retaliation. Dhandhos.
चलो मेरे साथ ट्रेड करो, लड़ाई बंद। और हाँ, वो घूसखोरी वाला केस भी तो है।

5. Trump goes socialist - He is actively pushing lower prices on everything he can, most strikingly drug prices, which he wants to be down by an average of 60%. This is extraordinary.
अमेरिकी लोगों खुश हो जाओ - मैं सब सस्ता कर दूंगा।

India's strategic game from here on has to factor each of these into account, if we do not wish to be shortchanged as a nation. Of course if the goal is something else, fine and dandy.

#geopolitics #Houthis #Netanyahu #DonaldTrump #China #TradeWar #IndiaPakistanWar #Modi #Ceasefire #Pharmaceuticals He is setting clear limits for the military-industrial complex (that dominates US politics), and will most likely redirect it towards the Pacific region eventually, to take on China militarily (in theory and perception, at least). But I think he may not get involved even if China takes over Taiwan (unlikely in next few years).

Modi agrees to a nationwide CASTE CENSUS
(alongwith pending decadal census 2021)

1. Modi agrees - Due to constant demand by almost all political parties except BJP (RSS) camp, finally Modi has agreed to do a Caste Census alongwith long-pending Decadal census. (I am assuming he will also order a proper economic mapping in it, without which it's meaningless)

2. 1931 - The last time such a census happened was in 1931, when all castes were enumerated. Then, in all later decadal censuses, only SCs/STs have been properly enumerated (but not OBCs or EBCs or upper castes).

3. Problem with Indian society - It's a proven fact, visible to the eye, that massive concentration of opportunities, incomes and wealth (assets, lands) is with the upper castes of India. A proper Caste Census that also lists economic parameters, will for the first time, officially show the extent of concentration. It's going to be eye-opening (for those who pretend otherwise).

4. Congress tried in 2011 - Due to its social justice impact, the need for a detailed caste census was felt all along. The Congress (UPA) govt. tried doing it, in 2011, via the SECC (Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC) 2011). It was a separate, one-time survey (not part of Census 2011) covering rural poverty and including caste data, done by Ministry of Rural Development, not the Census office. Very strangely, SECC data was never officially released. One can understand why. Sad.

5. How many castes - The more than 2000 year old caste system of India showed up in "full glory" in SECC 2011 when over 40,000 caste names were reported! Many may have been vague, and estimates now are that the actual no. may be around 7000 or so. Matching self-reported castes with official caste categories (especially for OBCs) requires administrative effort. It will now be done by Modi govt.

6. Evidence-based policy making - The Indian governments run a large number of programmes, schemes, scholarships and grants that are social-justice driven. They can be meaningful with exact data of communities and castes. That will happen now, and with the data in public domain (like that of Bihar Caste Census 2023), anyone can crosscheck and verify. Note that many states have started (or done) their own respective Caste Censuses already (e.g. Telangana).

7. What Judiciary says - The Indian judiciary has repeatedly asked the government to back up any social justice policy like job reservations with actual census data. For the first time since 1950s, that will now be done. Any social justice policy will now have exact numbers with which to back it up. Thus, a Caste Census has full backing of Indian judiciary if "data justification" is considered.

7. Rohini Commission Report - A major issue now is OBC reservations, and which caste group in OBCs gets what per cent of benefits. The Rohini Commission (Commission to Examine Sub-Categorization of Other Backward Classes) 2017 under Justice G. Rohini examined sub-categorization of OBCs for equitable distribution of 27% reservation for OBCs. Frequent grouse is a few dominant OBC castes cornering majority of the benefits. Modi govt's idea was to divide the 27% OBC quota into sub-categories (e.g., (i) backward, (ii) more backward, and (iii) extremely backward) so all OBCs get a fair share. Despite the final report submitted in 2023 (reportedly with 4 sub-groups proposed), Modi govt. has not made it public or taken up in Parliament. Now, that cannot be postponed any more.

8. What Next -
(a) Decadal census 2021 is to be done, and Caste Census will be part of it. The dates are not yet declared. {If Census is done now, then Delimitation cannot happen before 2029 Lok Sabha elections. If Census happens after 2026, then it can.}
(b) Economic asset mapping (economic census) must be a core part of Caste Census for it to be meaningful.
(c) BJP RSS have staunchly opposed caste census all along, as politics of Hindutva is the polar opposite of this idea. But given the ground reality, Modi did a volte-face.
(d) The coming politics of India will now strongly focus on social justice, as the ground reality of Indian society, the huge concentration of wealth and incomes, and the need for better distribution becomes numerically transparent and apparent.
(e) Remember, talking about caste realities is not casteism. Ignoring caste realities as you may be a privileged one, is casteism.

#CasteCensus #DecadalCensus #PopulationCensus Telangana update -

https://x.com/revanth_anumula/status/1917542799010156833

Every time there's a young delivery boy/man coming to my home, I cannot help but wonder how different India would have been, had he been working at a proper factory, earning formal sector wages, with a hope for the future. A huge manufacturing job push could have changed India's destiny. Nothing happened. That bus too left. A significant part of demographic dividend just being wasted in gig economy, and the vast informal sector with no mobility at all. Even now, not one political leader or party has any manufacturing vision for India. Jobs at scale is not even a pipedream now. Steady decay has set in. That settles it, then, right?

The Empire has struck again.
Syria liberated by ISIS chaps, rebranded by US as liberators. The country to be fragmented and controlled by Israel and US and Turkey. Next Libya or Iraq. Or Afghanistan?
If you are keen to know exactly what happened and what's likely to happen, I have compiled some sharp insights. Do take a look. Download and bookmark.

#SyrianCivilWar #Syrian #Israel #Iran #USA #Russia #BasharAlAssad #Ukraine

1 / 6 - A quick look at the history #SyrianCivilWar #Syrian #Israel #Iran #USA #Russia #BasharAlAssad #Ukraine

2 / 6 - Assad is out, and what is to replace him?

If you are an Indian
and/or an Infosys shareholder

Read this -

Infosys was this close 🤌 to getting a large stake in a firm that now is the AI bellwether globally.

OpenAI.

In 2015, then Infy CEO Vishal Sikka was about to make a huge investment in an unknown firm (OpenAI) because he saw the massive potential in what it was about to achieve (ChatGPT and more).

Then just as suddenly, Vishal Sikka was thrown out of Infosys by its promoters (Nilekani, Murthy and co.) in a strange manner.

They didn't even bother to assess OpenAI.

Continued doing what they did all along - dull, boring, backend support work for the world.

And with it, the opportunity of an Indian company to own a large share in a foundational AI model was lost. And so was lost value worth billions. Soon maybe hundreds of billions.

Begs the question - why did they commit this harakiri?

Satya Nadella of Microsoft didn't. He invested. He saw what Vishal Sikka too had.

Meanwhile, Murthy still believes value is created by working 70 hrs per week. No doubt!

Poor Infy shareholders. Victims of strategic myopia.

#OpenAI #VishalSikka #NandanNilekani #NarayanaMurthy #AI Had Vishal Sikka continued, and could have invested $500 m back then (he had large plans), that stake alone may have been worth tens of billions of dollars today for Infosys! In addition to becoming a firm with a solid eye on future.

All lost.

After 2024 General Elections, and after today's Budget

who is supporting Modi and BJP?

1. Liberals - ❌
2. Seculars - ❌
3. Minorities - ❌
4. Federalists - ❌
5. Progressives - ❌
6. Free thinkers - ❌
7. Honest taxpayers - ❌
8. Families of exam aspirants -❌
9. Capitalist-minded middle-class - ❌
10. "India ko superpower bana denge" - ❌

11. Crony capitalists - ✅
12. Abdul ki choodi tight karni hi hai - ✅
13. Modi ji se mohabbat karte hain bhai - ✅

#UnionBudget2024 #IndianEconomy
#IndianPolitics

Wealth Redistribution
Five Facts

1⃣ The first-ever middle class of India was created in the 1950s, 60s and 70s due to the PSU employment, built by the socialist governments of the day. Their kids are now at the forefront of abusing socialism, and any proactive policies to help the poor. Many of those folks are now full-time WhatsApp Unkils.

2⃣ The massive wealth transfer that has happened after 1991 till date (33 years) from the bottom rungs of Indian social pyramid to top 10%, is unprecedented. This is neoliberalism's direct fallout. Documentation exists.
(same trouble in US too)

3⃣ Every time a crony capitalist bags another airport, another port, another jungle and another big company at low prices, it's wealth transfer happening before our eyes. Every time the NPAs were written off, and NCLT settlements happened at throw-away haircuts, that was wealth transfer on a giant scale.

4⃣ A middle class person paying extortionate taxes on fuel and highway tolls is an involuntary participant in wealth transfer to the super-rich (who control the corporates of India that control those roads and refineries, and even the government!). Ask yourself - if cheap crude was sourced from Russia after 2022, why did pump prices not reduce substantially for you and me? Why did refineries (including private ones) made a killing exporting refined petro products to Europe? Was that not wealth transfer to the top chaps? [micro-gains that could come to you and me went in a macro way to the Seths of India]

The next time you pay that extortionate toll at that shiny new highway, made from your own taxes, ask - "Why this toll at all"?

5⃣ No middle class person need worry about any inheritance tax, or any "wealth transfer scheme" at all, because frankly, all of us are quite "unwealthy". In fact, anyone not having wealth upwards of Rs.100 crores (a rough figure) does not even matter. But the way we are being whacked by taxes, with poor returns, while the corporates make hay by way of lower taxes, is worth watching. If any inheritance tax is ever brought, the super-rich will remain super-rich even after that.

Since the 1980s, the world has turned upside down. The top 1% elite now literally own everything, even as middle class folks like me and you slog and some of us hyperventilate to protect those 1% elite. Pointless.

Ask for a debate. A well-informed one. And let right policies be made. Do not fall prey to nonsensical fear-mongering by media controlled by that very 1%.

Ask yourself
Who owns the government via funding?
Who bought those electoral bonds?
Who owns the Godi Media?

--------
Who holds the wealth in India?
(Total population = 140 cr)
1⃣Top 1% -- holds 40.1% of total wealth
Top 10% -- holds 65% of total wealth
So 14 crore people hold wealth equal to 126 crores (which hold just 35%)!
2⃣Bottom 50% -- holds 6.4% of total wealth
(a life of permanent slavery, almost)
3⃣ Middle 40% -- holds just 28.6%
-------

#WealthRedistributionPlan #InheritanceTax
#LokSabhaElections2024 BJP supports Inheritance Tax of 55%, Jayant Sinha, MP.
Please share widely.

https://twitter.com/sandeep_PT/status/1783097528331735317

ELECTORAL BONDS SCAM
The Government tried its best to scuttle the Electoral Bonds final details disclosure (i.e. unique numbers) and the Supreme Court said "nothing doing". Give everything immediately. Wonderful and precise.
Deadline for all pending details - 5 pm, Thursday
ECI to upload it - Friday.

#ElectoralBondScam #ElectoralBondsCase
----- Corporates are spooked, and want unique nos. to not be disclosed at any cost, as then - QUID PRO QUO can be established fairly quickly. Yes, that's the real fear, not "privacy of donation", because anyway max donations have gone to BJP only.
#ElectoralBondScam #ElectoralBondsCase

STATE OF INDIAN MEDIA
(1/5)

The Rahul Gandhi episode has brought 5 truths of Indian media out in the open. Here they are

TRUTH 1.
Mainstream media is completely captured by rich industrialists now. Journalists /anchors are just paid hitmen, waiting to run down Modi opponents. (2/5)

TRUTH 2.
Modi supporters are perfectly happy with his not taking any press meets.

"Who takes a press meet? If you are working hard, why do you need a press meet?"

"Who has the faltu time to take press meets?"

The whole idea of media and accountability is destroyed.