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Stanislaus County Registrar of Voters Stan 🌉 Profile picture
Stanislaus County Registrar of Voters Stan 🌉
@schlagteslinks
RIP the Washington primary indicator (2008-2024). 24x7 monkey's paw of polling analysis. Should've doubted the college-educated white crosstabs also. He/him.
Sep 13, 2024 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Trump has never sounded intelligent but he wasn't always as bad as he is now. In 2016 he sounded way more normal & smarter (relatively speaking) & had way more messaging discipline

Also note the respect he affords Hillary: "I want you to be very happy. It's very important to me" -Attempts to sound presidential/competent

-Focused on his message and campaign theme of "Outsider vs establishment) enough to score some points: "I'll take the admirals and the generals any day over the political hacks"

-Bipartisan appeal: "Secretary Clinton and I agree"
Aug 10, 2024 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
[REPOST TO CORRECT INACCURACIES]

Secretaries of State who will certify final statewide election results in the top swing states:

1. AZ: Adrian Fontes (D)
2. GA: Brad Raffensperger (anti-Stop the Steal R)
3. NV: Cisco Aguilar (D)
4. PA: Al Schmidt (anti-Stop the Steal R) Michigan:
Aug 5, 2024 • 26 tweets • 7 min read
To all those shivering in the cold of the veepstakes: Gather round the fire. Pull up a chair. It's time for a briefing session on the WASHINGTON PRIMARY

Let's look back at over a decade of history, going back to 2008 when the Washington primary's current iteration was born: Image For those new, the Washington primary has developed a reputation as a "leading" indicator for the national mood will be, because it's been predictive of turnout and vote choice.

Used @SplitTicket_ SHAVE data for national environment estimates (see below)
Jul 2, 2024 • 19 tweets • 7 min read

Image "75% of voters say Biden would have a better chance with someone other than Biden as the nominee"

Image
Jun 16, 2024 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Image What's ironic is Biden actually has accomplished fundamental change to some degree, way more than any of us thought he would. So people are trying to attribute his poor polling to the group that *doesn't* want fundamental change because of their priors. But the polls disagree!
Jun 4, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
This story is definitely surreal, in that I can't believe someone allowed this garbage to be published ImageImageImageImage Republicans everywhere say this, you idiots Image