Europe 🇪🇺 significantly lags the US 🇺🇸 and China 🇨🇳 as a tech power.

Data-rich 🧵 below on the economic consequences of tech stagnation for Europe’s prosperity and beyond (1/25)

Cc: @GerardAraud @Noahpinion @erikbryn @paulg Europe 🇪🇺 is still a major R&D spender, but it was recently surpassed by China 🇨🇳 whose spending has skyrocketed in recent decades (2/25)

China 🇨🇳 solar mega boom 💥

➡️ China installed 3x solar capacity in Q1 than in the same period in 2022

➡️ China is on track to add more solar in 2023 than the entire cumulative total in the US

(1/4) Overall, China 🇨🇳 is adding more renewables each year than the EU 🇪🇺, US 🇺🇸 and India 🇮🇳 combined (2/4)

Global trade is under increasing pressure from protectionist policies (1/4)

Cc: @balajis @Noahpinion @BrankoMilan @erikbryn We may be living through a period of “slowbalisation” (2/4)

China 🇨🇳 is now the world’s largest auto 🚙 exporter

Short 🧵 below on China’s rise as an automotive superpower 📈 (1/9)

Cc: @Noahpinion @ElbridgeColby @NickKristof @Brad_Setser @PekingMike China is now number 1️⃣

➡️ China 🇨🇳 exported 1.07 million vehicles in Q1, up 58% y-o-y

➡️ Japan 🇯🇵 exported 950,000 vehicles during the quarter

➡️ 35% of EVs 🔋 exported globally came from China last year, compared with 25% in 2021 (2/9)

wsj.com/articles/your-…

Red states are huge winners of the new Green Industrial Revolution.

Short thread 🧵 below on how the IRA will be a huge economic driver of investment and job creation in Red America (1/15)

Cc: @JesseJenkins @dwallacewells @Noahpinion @ramez @NickKristof Overall, an incredible $200bn in new clean tech and semiconductor investments has been announced since the passage of the IRA and the Chips Act (2/15)

ft.com/content/61431f…

China 🇨🇳 has a 2-part strategy to dominate the global auto industry.

1️⃣ Make massive investments in upstream EV supply chain
2️⃣ Subsidize local demand to create market for domestic automakers

Step 3️⃣ is to export EVs to ROW. And it will work (1/4)

Cc:@ElbridgeColby @Noahpinion China 🇨🇳 is already the Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 of EV batteries 🔋

🔹 6 of top 10 companies are Chinese

🔹 Top 2 Chinese producers, CATL & BYD, control 50.7% of global market (2/4)

Cc: @jacobhelberg @russellgold

It’s official. India 🇮🇳 is now the world’s largest country surpassing China 🇨🇳

A 🧵 below on what India’s explosive growth means for wealth, power and politics in Asia and around the world 🌏

(1/22)

Cc: @Noahpinion @ElbridgeColby @GerardAraud @davidfrum @erikbryn India’s 🇮🇳 population is much younger than China’s 🇨🇳 with a large and growing labor force (2/22)

There’s a massive boom in US manufacturing 🏭 thanks to the Chips Act, the IRA and the Infrastructure Bill 💥

Short 🧵 below on industrial policy, trade, clean energy, globalization and deglobalization (1/19)

Cc: @Noahpinion @erikbryn @JesseJenkins @ElbridgeColby @RanaForoohar The US 🇺🇸 manufacturing boom is driven by a new commitment to industrial policy (2/19)

Corporate America is concerned about deglobalization 🗺️

Evidence from corporate reports 📄 (1/4) Corporate America is concerned about deglobalization 🗺️

Evidence from earnings calls 📞 (2/4)

Microsoft, Google, Apple, Meta and Amazon are racing to hire AI talent 🤖

(1/5) Big Tech companies like Google, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon are huge publishers of academic research on AI 🤖

(2/5)

Top podcasts of the week 🎧

🎙️ @BillGates on @kevin_scott

🎙️ Sam Altman on @lexfridman

🎙️ @BillAckman on @HarryStebbings

🎙️ Martin Wolf on @Yascha_Mounk

🎙️ @tylercowen on @bariweiss

🎙️ Sam Harris on @lexfridman

Links below, happy listening

And consider following me! 🎙️ @BillGates talks about GPT-4 and the AI revolution on the Microsoft podcast with @kevin_scott

- “It was stunning. It was mind-blowing” - talking about GPT-4

- discussing AI’s impact on future of computing, economy, public health, education and more

Tim Cook described Apple’s 🍏 relationship with China 🇨🇳 in Beijing today:

“Apple and China . . . grew together and so this has been a symbiotic kind of relationship.”

🧵 on a complex relationship (1/18)

Cc: @erikbryn @Noahpinion @ElbridgeColby @ylecun @NickKristof @ryanl_hass Apple 🍏 has been a huge contributor to and beneficiary of China’s 🇨🇳 rise as a manufacturing superpower 🏭 (2/18)

Cc: @DavidBarboza2 @PekingMike @JKynge @GerardAraud

Africa will remain poor unless it uses more energy.

Short 🧵 below on the causes and consequences of Africa’s energy poverty (1/10)

Cc: @erikbryn @NickKristof @dwallacewells @JesseJenkins @Noahpinion 590 million people, or about half of sub-Saharan Africans, currently do not have access to electricity (2/10)

The IRA is a true game-changer for the energy transition in the US 🇺🇸

Short 🧵 below on the impact of the IRA in the US and beyond 🌏

Cc: @Noahpinion @dwallacewells @JesseJenkins @ramez @ylecun @RoKhanna @DeanBaker13 @erikbryn @RonaldKlain @NickKristof @Richard_Florida Overall levels of US government 🇺🇸 spending on clean energy are surging 📈

EV range has radically improved 🚙

✅ In 2011 Nissan Leaf was only EV available in US with range of 73 miles

✅ Today 50 EV models available in US with avrg. range of 291 miles

✅ Lucid Air Grand Touring’s range is 516 miles

Cc: @Noahpinion @JesseJenkins @dwallacewells @ramez Partially as a result of the rapidly improving technology, EV sales 🚙 are exploding 🚀

The generative AI 🤖 revolution is here 💥

Total value of generative AI startups hit $48bn, up 6x from 2020

Short 🧵 below on the Next Big Thing (1/23)

Cc:@Noahpinion @erikbryn @amcafee @balajis @Jason @DavidSacks @ylecun @Scobleizer @GerardAraud @gilliantett @bgurley @msuster The generative AI revolution has been built on a foundation of academic and corporate research (2/23)

India 🇮🇳 is dramatically underperforming peer nations in terms of manufacturing 🏭

(1/5)

Cc: @Noahpinion @balajis @tejeshwi_sharma @RMantri @wadhwa @azeem With better policies, India 🇮🇳 could leverage its massive and youthful population which gives it a growing demographic advantage against China 🇨🇳

(2/5)

Demographics is destiny.

China 🇨🇳 has lost 40 million workers since 2020. And its population is forecast to be cut in half by 2100.

Short 🧵 below on hugely consequential demographic developments in China. (1/9)

Cc: @Noahpinion @ElbridgeColby @nfergus @PekingMike @balajis 2022 was the first year where Chinese 🇨🇳 deaths surpassed births (2/9)

Vietnam 🇻🇳 is booming 💥

Since 2000, Vietnam’s GDP has grown faster than any Asian country bar China, averaging 6.2% per year.

🧵 below on the rise of a new Asian economic powerhouse (1/15)

Cc:@Noahpinion @ElbridgeColby @DavidBarboza2 @pstAsiatech @jacobhelberg @elonmusk Vietnam 🇨🇳 is now an electronics export powerhouse.

In 2020 electronics made up 38% of Vietnam’s goods exports, up from 14% of a much smaller pie in 2010 (2/15)

Cc: @ryanl_hass @greg_ip @balajis @TrungTPhan

economist.com/asia/2022/09/2…

Intel went from complete domination of advanced semiconductor design & manufacturing to being far behind.

Short 🧵 below on Intel’s fall from tech grace (1/12)

Cc: @Noahpinion @erikbryn @amcafee @paulg @ElbridgeColby @gilbert @djrosent @crmiller1 @GerardAraud @pstAsiatech Despite its dominance in the traditional GPU market, Intel missed almost every new massive semiconductor market opportunity.

❌ It missed out on mobile to ARM

❌ It missed out on the AI wave to Nvidia and AMD

❌ It never built a foundry business to compete with TSMC

(2/12)

Tesla was responsible for an incredible 65% of all EV 🚙 sales in the US 🇺🇸 in 2022.

Below a short 🧵 on Tesla, the state of the US EV and progress on clean energy more generally (1/17)

Cc: @elonmusk @FutureJurvetson @Noahpinion @JesseJenkins @dwallacewells @Jason 2022 was a breakthrough year for EV availability in the US market (2/17)