Ever wondered why when it comes to the indyref voting intention that IPSOS are such outliers?

Well it's all really simple, they weight their results to Yes votes. It's an open and deliberate strategy by them.

Mini THREAD First thing to do is look at the 2014 results.

Yes were on 38% of the electorate, No were on 47% and 15% didn't vote.

@JamesMacEachern So James I know you have to substitute volume for substance but here’s your chance to actually engage in a debate.

Your contention is that there is a fiscal transfer but it is not EXACTLY known.

Your focus is on the allocation of debt and specifically a population share. @JamesMacEachern Your claim that this is unproven, but that’s the wrong language entirely. It’s not unproven because it’s stated.
What I think you mean is that it’s inappropriate.
To some extent I agree with that, because as we both know and you’ve agreed a population share is flattering to us.

Ash Regan goes from car crash to pile up.

After the disaster of her previous answers she makes it even worse.

The scripted answer (which you can see her reading) starts with a quiet “OK then”… Then jumps into the 65 countries have left the British empire line… but none of that was secession!

Only Ireland has ever left the UK and that was after an Act of the UK Parliament.

1/ A thread on the Taylor Perpetual Pretendyref

Sam Taylor called out this remarkable exchange between James Cook and Ash Taylor.

https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1629172935406632962?s=61&t=p7IP6OkTtWSwd9sVa7Uo7Q

You can listen to the whole exchange here but it’s so much more remarkable when you see it written down. 2/

https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1629185232946569217?s=61&t=p7IP6OkTtWSwd9sVa7Uo7Q

1/26 NEW RESEARCH

Covering the latest "poll" from @ScotNational using the FindOutNow methodology.
TL:DR 2/26 The FON method is more like a self selecting survey, that doesn't mean it is wrong, but it is VERY different from the existing approaches, the evidence shows nationalist bias.

So yesterday we got two very strange results in respect of polling.

1/18 Bit of NEW RESEARCH so here's
A THREAD

For some time now there has been a nationalist myth that smaller countries are wealthier, better off or happier than larger countries.

TL:DR it's wrong, there is no correlation between size and happiness. 2/18 This then is of course the basis for independence: if Scotland was independent it would be small and therefore happier than as part of a large 'sad' country like the UK.

1/ THREAD on debt and the questions @NicolaSturgeon now has to answer.

Following @NeilMackay thread on @drqvortrup new book I was able to get myself a copy and reviewed the section on debt in some detail. 2/ The position in the book is much more nuanced than the original thread would suggest.

For a start the book openly recognises that under international law Scotland does not have a right to leave the UK debt free.

THREAD
Had a bit of time to digest the Fiscal Commission's report into our long term demographics.

It's no exaggeration to say that this is one of the most important pieces of work about Scotland and it's future in many years.

And it is jaw dropping.

fiscalcommission.scot/publications/t… Firstly, over the next 50 years the UK population is expected to decline by 1.2M, 900,000 of which is due to a reduction of Scots!

That means we’ll end up being 7% of the UK.

So our friends at @PhantomPower14 have made much of their video of "10 ‘Economists’ (sic) on Scottish Independence."

https://twitter.com/PhantomPower14/status/1439404621018112017?s=20&t=-sGyxfAuuZMuJZgmPAX-eQ

As ever with nats they just throw up chaff and hope no one actually looks beyond the headline.

Trouble is, I did. A thread. When you look actual comments you really don’t get a case for independence you get a case for pain, disruption and the fact that the SNP really haven’t thought any of this through, especially on currency and debt.

@PhantomPower14 has no clue & cant see the contradictions.

1/ The levers - a thread.
Within "Independence in the Modern World. Wealthier, Happier, Fairer: Why Not Scotland?"

We finally get the much sought after levers from the SNP.

Why would independence make us a little bit better off... after making us poorer 2/ Well the bad news for nationalists is that all of these levers (which are often a repetition of the same thing) are available to the Scottish Government with devolution.

THREAD This is quite serious.

@NicolaSturgeon has just lied to the Scottish Parliament at least twice.

Firstly @stevewebb1 did not confirm that "People with accumulated rights would continue to receive the current levels of state pension in an independent Scotland."

https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1489224674991091717

Webb did muse to the Scottish Affairs Committee that accumulated pension service (he clarified that legally they were not rights) would be retained by Scots post independence, but he never said that they would continue to receive them in an independent Scotland.

Last night @Ianblackford_MP was on @ITVBorderRB and was tackled on the switch in SNP pension policy. Firstly this is not a slip of the tongue, this is a change in SNP policy. The specific point was put that this is a full 180 on the 2014 policy and Blackford doesn’t deny this.

2021 OECD pensions report, a THREAD
I'm sure you'll all be familiar with this line from @YesScot

https://twitter.com/YesScot/status/1411596390229188612?s=20

The trouble is that this comparison has always been one of apples and spanners (yes you aren't even comparing fruits with one another). This has been pointed out to nationalist publications and accounts such as @BelieveInScotland @ScotNational and @YesScot on several occasions however they stuck to their guns that the OECD analysis was fair and relevant.
thenational.scot/news/19148278.…

1/21 So it's a bit of a random collection of tweets of extracts from the new IFG papers on currency and borrowing for Scotland.

So I've consolidated them into one long thread.

TL:DR
None of this is good for anyone claiming independence won't be exceptionally painful. 2/21

https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1438710708905168902?s=20

Big papers on currency and borrowing from the IFG.

Basically says Scotland would have no choice but to try to use Sterlingisation. Here’s the far too innocent sounding passage from it.

You have to run a trade AND fiscal surplus to make this work.

The pain would be terrible. instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/…

Borrowing

TLDR it’s more expensive

1/12 So @RichardJMurphy did a post on pensions but stuck it behind the @Scotnational paywall.

Fortunately there are other ways to see what he's arguing, and it's about as bad as you can get.

A THREAD 2/12 The man knows very little about pensions and this becomes very clear in the post.

timesnewsnetwork.com/news/world/uk/…

It starts off with probably the most discredited pensions claim on the separatist side.

The old ex-pat fallacy.

Some choice Mark Blyth quotes, the nationalists new favourite economist. A mini thread.

In what possible way do nats thing retweeting this entirely accurate tweet helps their cause?

https://twitter.com/uk_together/status/506899714923843584

I mean if you want lies about EU membership then it’s the nats that are on very shaky ground.

Enter @afneil stage right.

1/33 The SNP and their detailed prospectus for the next independence referendum.

A long thread, but I promise you it's worth it. 2/33 On #MARR @NicolaSturgeon stated:

So Nicola, why is Scottish education failing in your own terms? Why are you still lying about your welfare powers to avoid using them?

1/ The inevitable #Sturgexit and what happens next.

A thread on the election and the position of First Minister. 2/ The SNP are in a real dilemma. With an election so close they can’t contemplate losing Sturgeon.

But the current First Minister is finished. That much is obvious.