The bear market is officially over. $BTC made it's first higher high ($25,212) since the all time high . That confirms a new bullish trend. Price can still go down, but that would be a new trend, not a continuation of the previous bear market. Congrats everyone. For reference, from 2019.

https://twitter.com/scottmelker/status/1113064886777544704?s=20

The WSJ just released an article moments ago, stating that Tether and Bitfinex banked with fake documents and shell companies, and that executives discussed way to evade bank scrutiny.

The article is behind a paywall, so I asked chatGPT to summarize.

wsj.com/articles/crypt… A report by The Wall Street Journal has revealed that crypto companies behind Tether used falsified documents and shell companies to obtain bank accounts.

"For An Angel" by Paul van Dyk just randomly played in my car.

I will never forget the first time I heard this song.

It changed my life.

It was 1999, and I was in my senior year at the University of Pennsylvania. I was already a rap DJ.

My friends and I went to New York City to hear PVD play at Twilo. At around 6 AM, there was a massive rush to the dance floor, and I heard someone next to me scream "for an angel, for an angel!"

I had somehow never heard the song.

I crashed a meeting with 3AC in Dubai.

My first question to Kyle was, "what did you say to the guys at Voyager to get them to give you $700M with no collateral."

My assumption was that they provided something fake to the creditors to compel them to give a loan. I said as much. This is what Kyle said...

His claim is that Voyager reached out to them directly and said they had $700M that they NEEDED to loan out.

Voyager was on a hunt for yield and were in a crunch to loan out their entire book to be able to continue offering yields to customers.

Interest Rate Swaps are the largest market in the world.

And most people have seemingly never heard of them. 🧵 Interest rate swaps are financial instruments that allow two parties to exchange a stream of payments based on a specified interest rate. They are commonly used to hedge against changes in interest rates, manage interest rate risk, or to obtain a more favorable interest rate.

1/ The meaning of life is a question that has puzzled philosophers for centuries. Some believe that the meaning of life is to seek happiness, others believe it is to achieve some sort of enlightenment or understanding of the world. 2/ Some people find meaning in their relationships with others, while others find meaning in their work or their personal accomplishments. Still others find meaning in their spiritual or religious beliefs.

1) W 2) A

An incomplete list of stupid and dangerous things that I did as a child of the 80s and 90s that would horrify parents today.

A thread. 🧵 1. Cow tipping
2. Mailbox baseball
3. Sneaking out and smoking cigarettes and chewing Levi Garrett tobacco
4. Bottle rocket fights
5. Roman candle fights
6. Throwing M80s
7. Shooting each other with BB Guns
8. Toilet papering houses

Engagement on my account has dropped from thousands of likes per tweet to under a hundred. I add new followers daily but the total number never increases. People tell me they don’t see my tweets.

Perhaps it’s the algorithm because of the bots.

Twitter currently is useless. Obviously a huge part of this is the bear market and the fact that people are sick of my tweets.

But there’s clearly something else contributing.

Maybe @elonmusk will fix it. Maybe we need to move onto greener pastures. Maybe we just need the number to go up.

$BTC Monthly Channel

I have posted this chart 100 times over the years. As you can see, every time for years that the EQ (center dashed line, equilibrium) was broken, price visited the top or bottom of the channel. This was the case being made for 200K Bitcoin when it broke to the upside in January of 2021.

The top never hit, the EQ was broken as support, and now we are looking at the bottom of the channel as support.

Almost touched here. Close enough?

Everything is going lower!

Do I have your attention?

Good.

I get the sense that almost everyone is expecting the market to go lower. Every time I turn on the financial news, open twitter or read an article, it feels like a deluge of bad news and negative expectations. There is a camp that reasonably believes we are long overdue for a relief bounce or reversal, but it feels like the majority is convinced that we are going much lower.

I don’t blame them, the world is in a rough state.

They may very well be right.

Bitcoin solves the Biyzantine Generals Problem

There are many people who remain skeptical about Bitcoin, believing that it is a scam or Ponzi Scheme.

Next time you encounter a doubter, talk to them about the Byzantine Generals Problem. The Byzantine Generals Problem is an age-old thought experiment rooted in the idea that cooperating generals and their armies surrounding an enemy city need to agree on when to attack.

Bitcoin is our life boat. Let me tell you why.

There’s a famous quote about boats that I love.

“Do you know the two happiest days in a boat owner’s life? The day they buy the boat and the day they sell it…”

For many people, buying a boat signifies the realization of a dream. It’s a milestone that many owners work their whole life to achieve. The first few months of owning a boat always live up to the hype. You fly a flag, take your family out, wave at strangers, go skiing, relive your childhood and catch dinner. It’s everything you ever wanted.

Wealth = Time

Wealth should be measured in time rather than money.

To take it a step further, wealth should be measured in choice. The choice to use your time as you see fit, and for the betterment of humanity and self. The ability to use your time as you see fit is the ultimate expression of freedom and wealth. If you have money but spend all of your time on tasks that make you unhappy, then you are not wealthy.

You are simply rich.

Stupid things that traders do, an evolving thread.

1. Remove their stop loss - do you enter a trade with a plan, but then panic and remove your stop when it's close because you fear price will bounce?

This is how you become an investor or "community member" instead of a trader. The ONLY time you should change your stop loss is when price rises and you are moving it up to lock in profit. If you are changing it on the way down, it's because you are emotional and are more concerned with being "wrong" than with protecting your capital.

Don't be a jackass.

$BTC Divergences

Here is the progression that I am watching for, from 30 minute to 12 hour. Remember low time frame divs mean small moves, not compelling. I jumped in early in case the larger ones confirm, but we can see quite a bit of movement down and still confirm them. $BTC 30 Minute

The larger div is somewhat irrelevant, over a long time period. Smaller one hit oversold and popped out, better for a scalp.

$BTC

As usual, the wick went a bit deeper than expected, but it's following the plan. Swept the range lows into the box, bullish SFP and movement up. Solid volume on the SFP.

I drew this yesterday and shared it live, don't @ me about hindsight.

Not out of the woods yet. $BTC

We had confirmed hourly bullish divergence with oversold RSI, which has been followed by a 4 hour bullish divergence with RSI, albeit an ugly one. Need to avoid a hidden bearish div.

Also drew this yesterday and shared long before it happened, don't @ me about hindsight.

$BTC Hourly

$37,402 has been a tough nut to crack locally, with 5 wicks breaching that swing high and closes below. Safest longs are above this line.

Price is at local support. You can long a bounce (good R/R, but not great odds of success) or short a breakdown and retest. $BTC

This is how I drew it this morning in the newsletter, for reference.

I am VERY bullish on longer time frames - this was specific for scalpers looking for opportunities in either direction.

Moment of truth here at support, IMO, on small time frame.

Good Vs. Bad Trades, a thread.

This was the introduction to yesterday's newsletter. I am going to share it in a thread, because it's never been more appropriate than now, with coins dumping 25% past stop losses in minutes.

Stopping out today was a GOOD TRADE. (1) I have talked many times about the definition of a good and bad trade, but once again want to hammer this point home.

The RESULT of a trade is irrelevant. Most beginning traders believe that a good trade is defined by the amount of profit secured.

I shared my thoughts on the election in the introduction of today's "Wolf Den Newsletter." Although it was written for paid members, I thought it appropriate to share it on Twitter as well for election day.

Here is the thread, I hope it helps you remain calm. 1/ Keep Calm And Carry On.

This phrase was emblazoned on a motivational poster produced by the British government in 1939 in preparation for World War II.

Past few days have seen the largest draw down ever across my accounts (crypto + equities), just because of the amount of gains accrued over the past few months.

Never fun, but part of the game we choose to play.

Helps that I take profit very regularly, but still hurts. This is where trading and investing psychology is key.

I am up 100s of % this year, it's been life changing gains.

It's ridiculous to compare my portfolio to the top a few days ago rather than to appreciate the amount that I have actually made.

I'm still very happy.