Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Blue Check Brandon Profile picture
Blue Check Brandon
@semperfidem2004
Low status beliefs; accurate forecasts The guy who said in 2016 that Brexit wouldn't dethrone the City 👍🏻 #RayEppsCIA #FreeJulianAssange
Apr 28 • 30 tweets • 8 min read
This is classic waffly, vague, unempirical Remoaner spin from Tony Blair fanboy Cohen. New hires are now "strongly focused." What's the evidence? In this THREAD I will show the real numbers & add some topical details 1/ First some context. Cohen was debating an article by perma-Brexit bore @JeremyWarnerUK with @DerrickBerthel1 & @Danjsalt. But for once, Warner acknowledges his predictions were wrong & correctly identifies the problem as too much regulation 👏
Dec 30, 2022 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
Friends, from time to time I check up on industry statistics to check my predictions of a minor impact of Brexit on the UK financial services industry. Today I look at UK fund management (short) THREAD 1/ Back in 2016 I explained that third country fund managers, including UK fund managers, could manage money for EU clients - according to the EU's own rules
wordpress.com/view/semperfid…
Nov 24, 2022 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Back in 2017 I used BIS international bank lending data to forecast the impact of Brexit on the City. Here is an update THREAD
semperfidem2004.wordpress.com/2017/09/28/lon… 1/ I predicted 4k job losses in banking and 1k elsewhere, against predictions of 75k (Oliver Wyman) - 220k (Wirecard's auditors, EY). The latest EY tracker has been revised *down* to 7k from a peak of 12.5k
Dec 26, 2020 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
A lot of noise about this #brexitdealdone as being a victory for one side or the other. It isn't THREAD 1/ Unless there is a sting in the tail it looks exactly like the Canada+ deal which was the only possible deal compatible with what most Brexit voters wanted:
Regulatory freedom
No EU Freedom of Movement
Control of fishing waters
May 17, 2020 • 47 tweets • 8 min read
The EU’s insane attempt to sue the UK for retroactive payment of VAT on derivatives transactions (see quoted THREAD) exemplifies the radical difference & incompatibility between EU & UK law. NEW THREAD 1/ The UK’s legal system (particularly English contract law) is one of its fundamental competitive advantages, which EU membership was designed to erode
May 14, 2020 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
VAT on derivatives is weapons grade stupid. EU banks that trade derivatives in London will be praising Brexit This is even more crazy than I thought THREAD
Dec 10, 2019 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
General Election THREAD. I think this will be a replay of 2016 disguised as a replay of 2017 1/ Conservative campaign is timid, doesn't hammer the fact that Labour want to keep FoM & bring Shamima Begum back to UK 2/
Jul 28, 2019 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Media is reporting an electoral pact between @brexitparty_uk. This is false & would be a huge mistake THREAD @brexitparty_uk 1/ Brexit Party has most to gain from the Labour Party in the North. They will fail to do so if they are seen as Tory allies
Dec 18, 2017 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
THREAD 1/ Such warnings have repeatedly been issued but are hollow. 99% of what the City does is wholesale, which has no need for SM membership
wp.me/p6sAEp-iN 2/ Only activities needing SM are RETAIL & that is mostly domestic. Exceptions: retail & private banking