The Reckoning šŸ’„ Profile picture
Time to unify around Trump!
EricStoner Profile picture JB Clayton Profile picture kcrouch Profile picture Arthur F Lange Profile picture Joseph Behan ā­ļøā­ļøā­ļø (Text TRUMP to 88022) Profile picture 74 subscribed
Sep 12 ā€¢ 8 tweets ā€¢ 2 min read
1/ I want to piggy back off of this to explain a fundamental dynamic that has changed since 2020.

Reels.

These are the mini snippet videos that people consume on platform like Tik Tok, Instagram, Facebook and even on X.

Although this existed in 2020 they are now ubiquitous. 2/ These mini videos consumed over and over throughout the day, day after day alters the impact and value analysis of events particularly video based events like a debate.

In the past snap polls had more significance because it was likely the only time the majority of people would consume the debate video content.
Jul 18 ā€¢ 14 tweets ā€¢ 3 min read
1/ Letā€™s talk about what we know about the entire career of Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. and how that informs this moment that he finds himself in. 2/ Joe Biden has spent a career leveraging his office to bring in money to his family.

Heā€™s corrupt.

But heā€™s corrupt in a very particular way.

He sends his son and his brother out into the world to negotiate ā€œbusinessā€ deals.
Jul 12 ā€¢ 4 tweets ā€¢ 1 min read
Listen, itā€™s been fun mocking Biden.

And yes heā€™s old and decrepit.

But the media is lazy.

They want to pin where the race is on the debate and Bidenā€™s mental decline.

Even if you accept the story about a progression that started 6 months ago, Trump was already ahead then. Image So the debate is not the why.

Trump is ahead for other reasons.

Like immigration.

Like economic issues like inflation, energy and interest rates.

Like foreign policy.

Trump is ahead because the electorate wants a return to a Trumpian reality.

And Biden is decrepit.
Sep 14, 2023 ā€¢ 6 tweets ā€¢ 3 min read
It is possible that a tape exists that makes clear that Biden was fully aware of what Hunter was doing and reveals that at a minimum Joe was aligned with him.

In that scenario, it is possible that the powers behind the scenes are effectively already conceding the Presidency. If that tape truly exists, it is my speculation that Trump knew it existed way back in 2020. But at that time, after the impeachment and in the middle of Covid, there wasnā€™t any real way to effectively prosecute the case. At that time, it would have been perceived as Trump abusing his power to hurt Joe. Now itā€™s not a story about Trump abusing power because Trump isnā€™t at the helm. Instead it is properly received and understood as a story about Bidenā€™s corruption.
Aug 23, 2023 ā€¢ 16 tweets ā€¢ 3 min read
šŸ§µ

Letā€™s discuss what each candidate needs to get done at the debate tonight.

For each person the expectations and goals is mostly a function of their current position and their short term and long term goals. /1 Given the amount of media consumed with Trump coverage, this may be their only chance to get their message out to a broader audience.

Only a few, like Tim Scott and DeSantis, have the means to put up ads in volume.

Tonight is crucial if they hope to break out from the pack. /2
Aug 16, 2023 ā€¢ 10 tweets ā€¢ 2 min read
The ā€œunite the countryā€ theme is exactly wrong for this moment in time.

Both tactically and politically.

You donā€™t unite with people who support the corrupt abuse of power to destroy you.

This is a political war. Weā€™re in the midst of battle.

You unite when the war is done Does anyone believe that as you tear down the administrative state and reform the FBI/DOJ with the media pitching a daily fit that the 50% of the country that supports Democrats are going to seek to unite with you?

We need to fight.

We need a fighter.
Aug 7, 2023 ā€¢ 17 tweets ā€¢ 3 min read
Since Bill Barr has been in the media so much lately, I think this is a good time for me to write my wrap up on my Spygate speculation.

Iā€™ll say this right up front, I stand by everything I wrote.

Not just the predictions but also the analysis.

Letā€™s go through it. /1 Early on, after Trump fired Comey and when everyone was screaming how Mueller would destroy Trump, I speculated that Trump actually was hoping to receive what I termed a ā€œclean bill of healthā€. Meaning he saw value in a person like Mueller proclaiming there was no collusion. /2
Aug 2, 2023 ā€¢ 6 tweets ā€¢ 2 min read
I found this article from @NYMag titled ā€œTrump Could Win Another Lesser-of-Two-Evils Electionā€. I think itā€™s important to understand the dynamics driving the current tight race that can and I believe will result in a clear electoral Trump victory. /1

nymag.com/intelligencer/ā€¦ The reality is that Trump overperformed amongst the crowd who ā€œhate ā€˜em bothā€ not just in 2016 but also in 2020, winning them by 17%. The problem? Their share of the electorate dropped from 18% to 3%. In 2020 voters mostly just hated Trump. /2 Image
Aug 2, 2023 ā€¢ 10 tweets ā€¢ 3 min read
The reality was that courts refused to actually hear cases for technical reasons based on standing and timing. None of them assessed the actual merits.

Trumpā€™s desire to send the question back to the legislatures FOR THEM TO DETERMINE, was both reasonable and legally possible./1 The Special Counsel is attempting to turn a Presidentā€™s right to lobby Congress into a crime.

Trump never forced Pence or any Congressperson or Senator to do anything.

He lobbied them. A completely legal endeavor. /2
Jul 19, 2023 ā€¢ 13 tweets ā€¢ 3 min read
It has long been my theory that the real reason Garland was convinced to raid Mar-a-Lago is that someone tipped them off that there were documents stored in Trumpā€™s safe that in some manner connected him to the January 6 riots.

But when they got to the safe, it was emptyā€¦

1/
That kind of documentary evidence of Trump personally involved in the riot would have severely damaged Trump. But it wasnā€™t actually there. So Garland was, at the end of that day, left to confront that he had no evidence to end Trump politically.

2/
Jul 17, 2023 ā€¢ 10 tweets ā€¢ 2 min read
From day one DeSantis lied to the publicā€™s face about something so basic and transparently true that it set the stage for everything else.

ā€œIā€m not runningā€ ā€œIā€™m on a book tour.ā€

The consultants told him
that the misrepresentations would help build momentum. 1/ Instead the primary base nationwide quickly soured. Why? If he will be this insincere about this what else will he misrepresent?

Well, sadly heā€™s misrepresenting a lot.

He would have fired Fauci. āŒ

Trump only built 40 miles of wall. āŒ

Ukrain is a territorial dispute. āŒ

2/
Mar 26, 2023 ā€¢ 4 tweets ā€¢ 1 min read
The three-act structure: Act 2: (Sound familiar?)
Mar 7, 2023 ā€¢ 4 tweets ā€¢ 1 min read
Fact 1: Trump was a total outsider in 2016 and was forced by the nature of our government structure to work with and hire people that were part of and therefore acceptable to the entrenched politicians. Fact 2: Seven years after he was initially elected and after many elections have passed more politicians are aligned with Trump but the leadership particularly on the Senate side is vehemently opposed to Trump and his policies.
Mar 2, 2023 ā€¢ 13 tweets ā€¢ 4 min read
šŸ§µ

Our system is built on the idea of the secret ballot.

Itā€™s an important principle.

For it to function, it requires that we trust the officials in charge of the electioneering process.

Unfortunately the extreme tribalness of modern politics makes trusting very difficultā€¦ In the past when most of the laws and case law were created, we did not have the technology to verify election outcomes. Now we do.

But there is an ingrained hesitation to pierce the vail out of a fear that individualā€™s voting records will become public.
Mar 2, 2023 ā€¢ 4 tweets ā€¢ 1 min read
Even if you donā€™t believe they used fraud to elect Biden, itā€™s impossible to deny that the entrenched powers used Covid to change historic electioneering norms and intervened in the free flow of information to rig the 2020 election and still only beat Trump by 40,000 in 3 states. But Seth but Seth if they did it last time then theyā€™ll just do it again.

Iā€™ll say this. It worked last time because people were still living inside the Covid panic and were living under four straight year of the most intense Trump deranged propaganda campaign ever witnessed.
Feb 2, 2023 ā€¢ 4 tweets ā€¢ 1 min read
Not that I think @ScottAdamsSays actually cares about my process but here it is. It was simple. It was grounded in my analysis of the data. Not vaccine data which was very limited. No it was based on understanding Covid data and itā€™s minuscule threat to a healthy person under 60. Against that near zero risk backdrop I was being asked to take a vaccine developed using a technology that had never previously been used. So the risk of a novel vaccine with limited data outweighed the risk of a bevel virus that had been producing data for nearly a full year.
Jan 24, 2023 ā€¢ 4 tweets ā€¢ 2 min read
What is unsaid?

That the composition of the minority Republican caucus changed dramatically in January with the new Senators that were seated.

While they were telling you Trump failed, in reality 2022 was a huge step in reshaping the Senate.

politico.com/news/2023/01/2ā€¦ Would it have been even more dramatic with Masters, Oz and Laxalt? šŸ’Æ

But donā€™t ignore the transformative affect of guys like Budd and J. D. Vance. These arenā€™t chameleons ready to do McConnellā€™s bidding.

It just isnā€™t going to be as easy for McConnell to play his games now.
Jan 12, 2023 ā€¢ 4 tweets ā€¢ 2 min read
Imagine referring to six years woth documents as immediately turned over.

Ridiculous. Also Iā€™m interested if the process by NARA that had them audit if there could be missing documents after Trump left office is a protocol or something they only did for Trump.

If in fact loose documents are such a threat then why isnā€™t there always an audit?
Dec 3, 2022 ā€¢ 7 tweets ā€¢ 1 min read
1/ We know from all of the revelations during the Spygate investigations and the IG reports that FBI agents regularly meet and talk with journalists. We also know that many journalists are effectively political campaign operatives. 2/ Clearly there was a ton of buffering and pre planning to deflect the Hunter laptop story. They knew they were going to effectively be interfering in an election. They strategized to use the Russian disinformation op as the excuse.
Dec 2, 2022 ā€¢ 4 tweets ā€¢ 1 min read
Elon mocked old Twitter for overreacting and permanently banning accounts.

His primary argument was that the world needs a platform where all people can present their views.

He said if an account was out of control the appropriate remedy was limiting exposure and a time out. He knows his action yesterday violates his fundamental principle.

So he argues incitement to violence.

Except of course that never actually happened.

How is this different from ā€œTrump incited an insurrectionā€?

Are insurrections not violent?
Nov 27, 2022 ā€¢ 4 tweets ā€¢ 2 min read
In November 2020 right before the Capital riot my tweet impressions peaked around 25 million.

While I was getting less than 1 million profile visits.

1/3 By March 2021 my account was fully throttled down and somehow I had less overall tweet impressions than total profile visitors which makes no sense.

2/3