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Olúṣeun Onígbindé Profile picture
Olúṣeun Onígbindé
@seunonigbinde
Director: BudgIT, ForeFront, Kwerty. Highly unrepentant about the primacy of public accountability. Democracy & Civictech Strategist.
Jan 29 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
I don’t know why Nigerians think they can give Dangote the crude they don’t have.

“The daily average of the Federation’s share of crude oil was 414,463 barrels
in 2020, 292,198 barrels in 2021, 290,649 barrels in 2022, and 205,184 barrels in 2023 (Figure 6).
These are far below the daily average of one million barrels per day that accrued to the Federation
between 2004 and 2014”

If you are feeling interested, read this brilliant work:

agorapolicy.org/wp-content/upl… Because you hear that Nigeria produces 1.3m barrels per day doesn’t mean everything belongs to Nigerian Federation.

For most PSC deep offshore, companies take a larger percentage.

Nigeria’s Federation component has shrunk in recent times to less than 400kbpd. Also, NNPC gets a priority allocation of 445kbpd for swaps related for domestic supply.

So where’s the sustainable plenty crude for Dangote except the ones used for swaps are diverted to the complex?
Jun 4, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
My single argument for subsidy removal is that the Nigerian Government can no longer afford it from a fiscal perspective.

We have used Federation receipts, Excess Crude account, Eurobonds, NLNG dividends etc. to pay for subsidy and the whole inefficient arrangement needs to… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… And for the record, I am for exchange rate unification with exception for fuel. I believe applying the twin approaches can be overwhelming.

That's why I asked for a discounted rate for fuel imports and crude swaps for verified importers. Final pump price will still have no… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Apr 3, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
It's important to state for record purposes.

The GEJ 2015 budget was a transition budget with barely a capital component. Oil prices started falling in late 2014 and the pressures were very evident.

Rather than understand the precarious situation, Buhari came in without a plan. Since CAPEX was not spent by GEJ, Buhari not appointing Ministers for six months meant nothing could be done.

Even 2016 budget was delayed till June because of budget padding and other untoward scenarios. You have public procurement turned off for literally one and half years.
Oct 19, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
With the N20tn to be offloaded at an unrealistic 9% coupon, Buhari govt is setting a big trap for the next govt.

That's putting a burden of at least N1.8tn annual debt servicing on govts for next 40 years. Crisis. FG got N20tn with CBN with no questions on efficiency of spending. In its final minutes, it wants to be offload it on future generations.

Posterity won't be kind to us if we keep quiet.