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Seun Smith Profile picture
Seun Smith
@seunsmith
@enaroenergy | Nigeria-phile. | RT ≠ Endorsement
Oct 17, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Deficit numbers for Q1 2023 have been out for a while but just taking a look.

Some interesting points:

1) Budget office changed the way the actual spending was calculated. I'm not sure if its an error/oversight but the impact is material. Difference is >1.5tn.
Image So what changed? They included the CAPEX spent in Q1 2023 on 2022 budget projects and left out the CAPEX spent on 2023 budget projects in the same period.

Very odd but I think it was just an error. However, the reported deficit is now useless.

So let's look at 2 other numbers:
Oct 13, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
A reminder that the only job of a central bank with regard to promoting competitiveness of domestic firms is to promote orderly functioning of FX markets and bolster liquidity in them.

This allows inputs to be imported by those domestic firms and also allows them to pay…..

1/4 ...domestic suppliers from export proceeds (safeguarding supply chains).

This also forces the domestic firms to keep their domestic prices stable by facilitating imports of substitutes (promoting competition). Not only is this consistent with the central bank’s …

2/4
Oct 23, 2022 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
If the next administration is to succeed at increasing individual prosperity, the selection of the Minister of Industry, Trade, and Investment will be equally as important as the Minister of Finance.

They will have to reform Trade policies that have been in place for >200 years! It means shifting away from the widespread mindset that trade is an extension of fiscal policy & trade policy is formulated to extract maximum revenue for the govt.

This has been the mindset since the slave & palm oil trade in the 19th century. It will be difficult to change.
Aug 24, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Great thread. However some of sectorial suggestions appear to imply the dominant growth model of the OBJ/YAR/GEJ admins is still possible. i.e. Petrodollars fueling Household Consumption driven growth + Structural Reforms delivering some Investment led growth. However, I’m not sure that same model will be possible today given oil’s outlook.

My view is that while additional structural reforms are required to drive new investment, these new investments should be focused on driving exports (not household consumption which is 60% of GDP).
Aug 27, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Three steps that Madam needs to take to immediately regain control of fiscal policy: 1. Get the approval of the President to sell NAPIMS monthly USD denominated surplus for NGN in the I&E window via an auction. NAPIMS is an exporter and should be able to use the I&E window too. The extra liquidity helps harmonize FX rates which helps meet WB loan conditionality.
Jul 23, 2020 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
So the MTEF is up on the Budget Office website.

Some very, very interesting things in there.

budgetoffice.gov.ng/index.php/2021… Official admission that the 3% of GDP limit for deficit financing in the Fiscal Responsibility Act is no longer achievable.

This was always going to happen but it should be done legally by amending the FRA.
Jan 1, 2019 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Some data on fiscal and quasi-fiscal intervention in financing for SMEs in 2017:

Fiscal interventions first. Government Enterprise and Empowerment Program - GEEP (AKA MarketMoni/TraderMoni/FarmerMoni)

₦11.1 Billiion disbursed by BOI to 205,863 beneficiaries.

Average of ~₦54,000 per beneficiary to less than 0.3% of 77 million SMEs in Nigeria.

Source: BOI 2017 Annual Report.
Feb 14, 2018 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Don't agree with this position. Concession and tolling our most important highways may be the only "nationally scalable" way to get our roads fixed.

That roads are public goods does not mean financing their construction from taxes is possible or even optimal. Just to put some legs to this point, I did a rough estimate of what it will cost to properly reconstruct the most important highways in the country. I started out with this graphic from the good folks @sbmintelligence

cc: @StearsBusiness