I try to stay away from unnecessary debates but let me offer my own view from a purely technical & economist perspective (for education purposes only) to recent debates that were really unnecessary.

When economists says “an economy is now stable”, they usually mean that the 1/10 economy has reached a point where it is no longer
experiencing major fluctuations/ disruptions. In practical terms, it suggests Macroeconomic Indicators are Steady; Predictability and Confidence where Businesses, investors, & consumers feel more confident making long-term 2/10

So much for the informal sector workers were never captured lie. Lying unintelligently. All that changed is allowable hours. Informal workers often tend to even work longer hours than formal workers.They are usually up before and often close after we formal sector people are home

https://twitter.com/drrafiqraji/status/1695726715203403925

And so much for not following ILO standards and we are forced to adopt ILO guidelines. This shows the list of the Committe(not Yemi Kale 😌)that actually recommended the previous review in 2015 including the ILO. When you tell these lies do you assume no records to refute exist?

Extract from my just concluded presentation at 2023 BusinessDay CEO Forum

So Assuming Friedman”s theory for controlling money supply led inflation holds where money supply should grow at pace of GDP growth to keep inflation low then this was largely maintained on Nigeria. 1/6 After covid money supply grew at similar pace as GDP but inflation kept surging despite adopting arguably the most intense monetary tightening in the world to combat inflation.MPR rose by almost 100%, CRR from 15% to over 35%, Asymmetric corridor widened & Intense Fx demand 2/6

Growth without Development: It is estimated that there are over 50k uncompleted/abandoned projects. Littering your economy with uncompleted or less desirable projects will grow your GDP but won’t cause your nation to develop or will develop at a much slower rate. How so? 1/4 Simple eg: You spend N1bn on a school/health center but it’s not finished because you need say N3 bn to complete it. That 1bn is added to your GDP so it grows by N1b but since school/health center isn’t completed it can’t be used & has made no contribution to development. 2/4

Unpopular opinion but do all MDAs have to be given capital in every budget cycle? Why can’t we as part of MTEF, come up with a system of budgeting over 4+ years that says re capital allocation, we will focus on this 3/4sectors/mdas first,then another set next year or so etc. 1/4 This way by using a more systematic plan you give almost all of the capital budget to just a few MDAs at a time based on priority tied to whatever you want to achieve. Be done with them before moving to another batch next year etc. Rather than spreading limited funds thinly. 2/4

We often advocate boosting Manufacturing in Nigeria re exports etc.But global production value is changing such that the higher value in firms value chain nowadays is more from the frontend (technology, patents etc) & backend(Marketing/sales) 1/3 & less from actual production 1/3 Less of the economic gain is coming from the middle phase which is the actual production itself we always focus on. (smile curve theory). Where does this leave us Re our growth& development strategy going forward? What lessons should we learn now as the World keeps evolving? 2/3

Understanding the trade off dilemma in choosing Policies through Phillipa Foot’s “The Trolley Problem”:

You are standing beside some tracks & you see a runaway trolley hurtling down the tracks towards five workers who cannot hear it coming. They won’t hear you shout. 1/3 As this disaster looms, you glance down & see a lever connected to the tracks. & realise if you pull the lever, it will be diverted down a second set of tracks away from the five unsuspecting workers. But down this side track is one worker, just as oblivious as his colleagues.2/3

I am estimating a reduction in Q1 2023 nominal GDP by between N10-15 trillion due to challenges sourcing cash in Q1 2023 This is because about 40% of Nigeria”s N198tn GDP in 2022 is informal of which about 90% is cash based. Further 30% of formal sector GDP is cash based. This means N106.9tn of total GDP is cash based.

Q3 2020 GDP report published @ nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/1191.

Information &Communication under Services GDP grew 14.56% compared to 16.52% in Q2 2020 & 9.88% in Q3 2019.

Telecoms real GDP grew by 17.36% compared to 18.1% in Q2 2020 & 11.3% in Q3 2019. Q3 2020 GDP report published @ nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/ 1191

Motion pictures, sound recording & Music Production under Information & Communication real GDP grew by 1.61% compared to -4.60% in Q2 2020 & 1.03% in Q3 2019.

Q2 2020 GDP report published @ nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/1191.

Services real GDP contracted by -5.49% compared to -6.78% in Q2 2020 & 1.87% in Q3 2019. Q2 2020 GDP report published @ nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/1191.

Trade under Services real GDP contracted by -12.12% compared to -16.59% in Q2 2020 & -1.45% in Q3 2019.

Q2 2020 GDP report published @ nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/1191.

Industry real GDP contracted by -6.12% compared to -12.05% in Q2 2020 & 3.21% in Q3 2019. Q2 2020 GDP report published @ nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/1191.

Mining & Quarying under Industry real GDP contracted by -13.22% compared to -6.60% in Q2 2020 & 6.19% in Q3 2019.

Q3 2020 GDP report published @ nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/1191

Q3 2020 Real GDP contracted for second consecutive quarter by -3.62% (-6.10% in Q2 2020 & 2.28% in Q3 2019).

Cumulative GDP for the first 9 months of 2020 therefore stood at -2.48%. Oil GDP contracted by -13.89% (-6.63% in Q2 2020; 6.49%% in Q3 2019).

Non-Oil GDP contracted -2.51% (-6.05% in Q2 2020; 1.85% in Q3 2019)

Half year 2020 States Internally Generated Revenue Report published @ nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/1167: Total 2020 Half year IGR: -11.77% Year on Year(Jan- July 2019 vs Jan -July 2020) Half year 2020 States Internally Generated Revenue Report published @ nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/1167:

Abia H1 2020 was -21.8% Year on Year

Adamawa H1 2020 was -25.2% Year on Year

Akwa Ibom H1 2020 was -20.8% Year on Year

Anambra H1 2020 was +9.9% Year on Year

Q2 2020 GDP report published @ nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/1143

Q2 2020 Real GDP contracted by -6.10 % compared to 1.87% in Q1 2020 & 2.12% in Q2 2019.

Oil GDP contracted by -6.63% (5.06% in Q1 2020; 5.15%% in Q2 2019).

Non-Oil GDP contracted -6.05% (1.55% in Q1 2020; 1.64% in Q2 2019) Q2 2020 GDP report published @ nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/1143.

Agric real GDP grew by 1.58 % compared to 2.20% in Q1 2020 & 1.79% in Q2 2019.

Crop Production under Agric real GDP grew by 1.44 % compared to 2.38% in Q1 2020 & 1.94% in Q2 2019.

Q2 2020 Unemployment/Underemployment report published @ nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/1135 Q2 2020 Unemployment/Underemployment report published @ nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/1135: Unemployment by age 1/2

2018-19 National Living Survey Published @ nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/1123: Table of contents 2018-19 National Living Survey Published @ nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/1123: SELECTED INFOGRAPHICS(see full report for more details as shown in table of content)- Average household size, dependency ratio, share of female headed households

Q1 2020 Foreign Trade in Goods report published nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/1112: Trade declined quarter on quarter by 17.9%(grew year on year by 0.8%)as exports& imports declined by -14.4% & -21% Qtr on Qtr respectively(13.9% & 46.7% YOY). Q1 2020 posts negative trade balance of -N138.9b Q1 2020 Foreign Trade in Goods report published nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/1112. Q1 2020 Total Trade at N8.30t compared to N10.12t in Q4 2020 & N8.24t in Q1 2019. Exports at N4.08t (N4.77t in Q4 2019 & N4.54t in Q1 2019). Imports at N4.22t (N5.35t in Q4 2019 & N3.70t in Q1 2019).

2019 Household consumption expenditure report has been published @ nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/1094: National expenditure on major food and non food categories in 2019 2019 Household consumption expenditure report has been published @ nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/1094: Urban sector expenditure on major food and non food categories in 2019

Q4 2019 GDP report published @ nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/1066. Q4 2019 GDP grew by 2.55% compared to 2.28% in Q3 2019 & 2.38% in Q4 2018, to end the year with a 2019 GDP growth of 2.27% compared to 1.91% in 2018, 0.82% in 2017 and -1.58% in 2016 Q4 2019 GDP published @ nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/1066 Q4 2019 Oil GDP grew by 6.36% from 6.49% in Q3 2019 & -1.62% in Q4 2018. Q4 2019. Non oil GDP grew 2.26% from 1.85% in Q3 2018 & 2.70% in Q4 2018.Oil GDP at 4.59% for 2019 (0.97% in 2018).Non oil GDP at 2.06% for 2019 (2.0% in 2018)

Q3 2019 Foreign Trade in goods report published @ nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/1033. Agric imports ⬆️ 7% & exports ⬆️ 7% Y on Y. Raw materials imports ⬇️ 4% & exports ⬇️ 5% Y on Y. Solid minerals imports ⬆️ 7% & exports ⬇️34% Y on Y. Manufactured imports ⬇️3% & exports ⬆️ 1000% Y on Y. Q3 2019 Foreign Trade in goods report published @ nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/1033. Total Trade in Q3 2019 ⬆️6.8% Q on Q & ⬆️1.3% Y on Y. Imports ⬇️ 2.7% Q on Q & ⬇️7.4% Y on Y, while exports ⬆️15% Q on Q & ⬆️8.9% Y on Y. Trade Balance ⬆️to N1.38tn from N0.59 in Q2 2019 (N1.08 in Q3 2018)

Q1 2019 Trade in Goods report published @ nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/953 Agric exports ⬇️ 11.8% Q on Q but ⬆️17.5% Y on Y; Raw materials exports ⬇️ 10.6% Q on Q but ⬆️11.5% YOY; Solid Minerals exports ⬆️16.8% Q on Q but ⬆️ 66.6% Y on Y; Manufactured exports ⬆️511% Q on Q & ⬆️6.4% Y on Y Q1 2019 Foreign Trade in Goods report published @ nigerianstat.gov.ng/download/953 Summary of Trade. Exports up 1.78% Q on Q but down -3.9% YOY; Imports up 3.39% Q on Q and up 29.8% Y on Y. India, Spain and Netherlands top export destinations while China, Swaziland and USA top imports