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Tracking how stuff evolves
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Feb 6 13 tweets 3 min read
APHIS has confirmed that cattle herds are infected with avian influenza genotype D1.1 in Nevada.
this is a more significant event that worth our attention. Join me here with a short analysis... Image Wild birds across the Americas (and globally) facing an avian flu panzootic in recent years, from a European origin. And as the load is high in birds, we see more and more spillovers, even to places hosts we wouldnt guess before.
Jan 24 14 tweets 3 min read
I'm excited to share a new tool I developed for visualizing pathogen genomics—currently focused on SARS-CoV-2. It overlays epidemiological data on phylogenetic trees, revealing insights beyond standard phylogenetics. >> I first proposed this idea two years ago. Now that I've built some more coding and modeling skills, I'm thrilled to present a working prototype. It's open to feedback—please share your thoughts! >>

Nov 26, 2024 22 tweets 5 min read
In the past year, concern about avian flu has risen, mainly due to outbreaks in cattle in the USA. The spread is described using different names like
H5N1
2.3.4.4b
B3.13
A/Texas/37/2024.

All these names are correct but can be confusing.

1/22 Image In this thread, I will review the different methods for taxonomy and nomenclature of flu lineages and strains, and provide my suggestion for the first step to create a standardized informative system.

2/22
Jul 17, 2024 8 tweets 2 min read
Will H5N1 in cattle in the USA disappear soon?
TL;DR - Chickens are cheap, cows are expensive, this thing is here to stay.
1/8 Image We have three important factors in understanding why H5N1 in cattle will disappear:
1. Herds infect herds.
2. Cows are not a cheap business.
3. The disease in its current form is not very severe for humans and cows.

2/8
Jul 7, 2024 15 tweets 6 min read
I created a new tool to track SARS-CoV-2 development (+retrospectively).
This thread explains its capabilities and show some initial results.
I'm keen to know your thoughts on the next steps in its development. Image This tool is based on a method I previously presented, implementing the transition in SARS-CoV-2 to massive 🧬which allows for extensive coverage in many countries and enables setting a high standard for data quality.
May 27, 2024 12 tweets 4 min read
An important @NathanGrubaugh project aims to establish a framework for higher resolution dengue virus genotyping, enhancing epidemiological insights, analyzing prevention measures, and vaccination strategies

1/12
Image Genomic background: Dengue virus has 4 main serotypes, likely from different historical events. High diversity exists between and within serotypes. In the 1990s, lineages were defined using partial sequencing of the envelope protein (E).
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May 7, 2024 20 tweets 4 min read
This research is extremely important, and its significance is multi-layered.
I will go over the insights I draw from some of the points that arise here. main importance here is from the essence of this paper. a collaboration of a real 🌎all stars of this matter, published less than 2 weeks after USDA released the🧬 an analsys beyond any authority's capabaility by itself.
This is exactly why authorities need to publish data asap.
Apr 28, 2024 9 tweets 3 min read
Several points regarding avian influenza in U.S. cattle.
TL;DR -
It doesn't seem like a fleeting event; the implications are broader than just milk. If we share data on time, we can improve preparedness.

1/9 Image So - There are two risks to address:
an immediate risk related to consuming milk, and a longer-term risk that has been intensifying over recent years from H5N1.

2/9
Apr 10, 2024 9 tweets 3 min read
Following @EmilyAnne_Smith thread, I am sharing here an advanced analysis I conducted on the genetic variations of the H5N1 viruses that surfaced in the Texas area, with hints of reassortment events and an idea for improvement in the future.

1/9

Image First lets revisit the phylogenetics. Here is a RAxML build of the🧬for the HA segment.
latest cattle 🧬 from TX (in 🟦).
The latest TX area branch with 🐄 and 🐦‍⬛in 🟪.
The human sample from TX in🟧 (claimed to be linked to 🐄).

2/9 Image
Jan 9, 2024 7 tweets 3 min read
JN.1 update :
One of the strongest indications of a connection between a specific variant and an increase in morbidity is the correlation between its rise and an increase in case number. As even if a variant dominates the overall landscape, it does not necessarily mean it enhances the number of patients (it only indicates its success in competing for patients compared to other variants).

And while it's true that correlation does not imply causation, a lack of correlation here would significantly hinder the conclusion that a variant increases morbidity. To delve deeper into this topic, I utilized case numberfrom Owid and JN.1 proportion from CovSpectrum, focusing on countries with sufficient information in both databases for the recent period.
This led me to 18 countries.
Dec 18, 2023 16 tweets 6 min read
I'm back to viral evolution after a long break. Because JN.1.
To get straight to the point – yes, there's cause for concern. When we will start seeing the variant ratio linked to case numbers, in many countries in parallel, that's when we will know that a another wave is on the rise JN.1, for those unfamiliar, is a subvariant of BA.2.86. Due to Pango's naming system, after three divergences, we transition to the next letter sequence. Therefore, JN.1 is essentially BA.2.86.1.1. It has several mutations beyond its parent (BA.2.86.1), with the one at position 455 in the RBD drawing the most attention. Without delving too deep into biochemistry (others are more hands on than I am on this), it's important to note that concerns about mutations at this specific position were raised even before JN.1 emerged. Hence, after a few sequences with a non-suspicious pattern of JN.1, it started to attract significant attention.
Oct 4, 2023 12 tweets 4 min read
Where BA.2.86 came from?
Contrary to the idea of saltation, variants like BA.2.86 are stepwise evolving, but they are under sequenced in this process. The main source for such 'saltation-like' variants are agreed to be Chronic COVID patients with compromised immunity
1/12 Image Monitoring prolonged cases is key to predicting variant evolution and potential. Ideally, nations should focus on immunocompromised patients for this tracking and share their complete data on those. Without such targeted data, we'll have to make do with what's available.
2/12
Sep 15, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
3 Points on BA.2.86.
TL;DR :
Circulation means success, Whether it'll outcompete others is TBD.
Its rise validates the Pi scenario. Huge Saltations can still yield competing strains.
Its presence increases risk, as recombination could yield more potent variants.

1/4 Image 1.
BA.2.86 is successful, without a doubt. 128 smples on @GISAID from 15 countries from all around the world. Whether it will outcompete current variants remains to be seen, but it's circulating and unlikely to disappear. Based on past events—like Alpha vs. WT, Delta vs. Alpha, Gamma vs. Alpha, and BA.2 vs. BA.1—it's clear that it can take a considerable amount of time (up to several months) for one variant to outcompete another. Don't overlook the unique kinetics of BA.1.
Image
Sep 5, 2023 9 tweets 3 min read
And now – convergence.

If you follow my work, you know I'm flagging convergence as a big clue of positive selection since B.1.1.7.
This is key when found in successful circulating variants (in contrast to terminal branched, chronic cases etc.).

In this thread, I'll show data on BA.2.86 convergence. I'll concentrate only on Non Spike as its neglected in the analysis of this virus, although the other 90% of the genome isn't just a filler. and we will see that using convergence clues.
Image So lets start with the data.
I manage a mutations database that covers 1,106 variants, sub-variants, and key branches. This project began post the emergence of B.1.1.7 in Dec 2020 and is ongoing. While it started as a manual effort, it's now mostly automated, thanks to valuable data of USHER phylogeny from @AngieSHinrichs (without her help – nothing in this analysis would be available and I would not be able to spot on tine BA.2.86. Angie, thank for all your help).
So here is the defining mutations data :

For access to the latest database, reach out if you're a researcher or lab staff. I'll keep you updated.
Aug 25, 2023 23 tweets 8 min read
BA.2.86 may or not become a threat, but what’s for sure is that the π scenario is a real.
In π I refer to a huge saltation successful variant based on past variants such as Δ,Omicrons or something even previous. which may lead to rise in case numbers.

Let's dive in... Image Two routes in the virus evolution:
Stepwise- small accumulating mutations due to genetic drift from small infecting size.
Saltation- genetic leaps cause most probably in chronic infection in immunocompromised patients, shaped more by selection (from the intra host environment)
Aug 18, 2023 11 tweets 4 min read
As BA.2.86 keeps on poppin, I'll outline key insights on its prevalence, genomic features, potential impacts, diagnostic advancements and highlight for areas requiring immediate focus.

For ongoing updates, please follow my page.

Let’s go: Image Most important note :
Only 5 BA.2.86 cases verified so far by sequencing. that's not much.
We must analyze with caution to prevent overinterpretation. With such limited data, We can easily make more noise than data. Nevertheless, these few cases could signal an emerging concern, requiring continued vigilance and alertness.
Aug 13, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
How wild can it gets?
One of our labs in Israel just uploaded a sample to @GISAID (EPI_ISL_18096761) from a patient which is not chronic nor infected by one (mans able to transmit inter host).
It's so wild I had to consult with some colleagues(*) to analyze if it's not BA.6... https://t.co/IXXjAnjwrktwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Image @GISAID If were taking it as a BA.2 2nd gen, it means it got :
18 RBD mutations (incld 3 reversions and a deletion)
69-70,144&211 dels, 4 AA insertion and plenty of mutations in the NTD
681 turn to R

This thing went far from BA.2 more than it went from the WT. https://t.co/jCNQ6ta3ivtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Image
Jun 30, 2023 9 tweets 3 min read
So where SARS-CoV-2 is going?
I'm sharing an analysis I've undertaken, looking at RBD SNPs in variants as a marker for antigenic drift, and synonymous SNPs as an index for time since the pandemic's onset. I took the definitions of 526 Omicrons sub-variants (from a DB i maintain and will share in the end here). This entailed assessing the count of synonymous SNPs against RBD SNPs in each varaiant. Averaging # RBD SNP's for each # of synonymous SNP's.
Jun 11, 2023 6 tweets 4 min read
Here is a variant definition DB I'm maintaining.
its includes an upgraded type of VCF with Aliases dict, mutations added relative to previous branches, mediator branchpoint (when such are not defined) and more for main @pango variants (842 so far).

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

1/6 Image Every entry goes through an analysis includes statistical examination of mutations, verification against USHER's Mutational path, study of parent's defining mutations, and analysis of mutation positions, including Ambiguous nucleotide and discontinuous regions.

2/6
May 31, 2023 13 tweets 5 min read
In 2021, I analyzed mutation rates in various variants, considering only samples with defining mutations. I then grouped these in consecutive time frames.



1/13 Prof. @richardneher later published a similar analysis yielding significant insights.

biorxiv.org/content/10.110…

2/13
Dec 11, 2022 11 tweets 2 min read
Are there more variants now?
Geneticwise, mutations are constantly added to the genome as the virus passes between hosts. Until May-June 2022, it was thought that these stepwise additions of mutations were not a result of selection-based evolution, but rather genetic drift.
1/10 In the last half a year, the trend has changed. Now there are stepwise (and saltation) variants accumulating convergent S1 mutations, which seems to give them an advantage. So there is not necessarily an increase in diversity, but rather that this diversity is beneficial.
2/10