The PCR positivity map has updated.

This week's data shows us where the increase in positivity is focused. All the hotspots correlate with rising hospital admissions.



1/6 jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog… There's rising positivity across the Midlands, with admissions doubling over the last week in Birmingham, Leics., Worcs., Derby and also further SW in Gloucs.

Wolverhampton shows the most rapid rise, with admissions tripling.

2/6

There was an article in the FT this weekend, purporting to discover that there has been no increase in illness in Britain - merely an increase in people claiming more generous health benefits.



1/16

https://x.com/FT/status/1864965532614602982

I was surprised to see it's by the normally reality-based @jburnmurdoch.

In some ways, the 'mirage' he's arguing against is one of his own making. He candidly admits over-estimating his 2022 view that Britain's ill health made it an outlier in Europe.

2/16

We've been working on a few changes to the UK Covid PCR positivity map.

One of the changes is quite dramatic, so I wanted to give people an advance view and an explanation before tomorrow's data drops and the map updates.



1/9 jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog… If you've been following me the last few weeks, you'll know I had concerns about one area misreporting.

This meant the colour scale of the whole map was being distorted by that single anomalous area.

This is what it looked like last Thursday.

2/9

The PCR positivity map has updated again today, and it takes a bit of deciphering this time.

I'll talk (tweet? twalk?) you through it.



1/11 jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog… Initially it looks as though the map reflects the reduced positivity reported by UKHSA this week, down to 11.32%, in line with the decline shown by NOIDs on Monday.

But as always the devil is in the detail.

2/11

The UKHSA dashboard has been 'refreshed'.

This is what it looks like now.

1/6 The first thing I want to note is that the refresh has broken all the links on the Covid PCR positivity map.

Please note, the data is still there; it just requires a bit of work to get it easily accessible again.



2/6 jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog…

This week's UKHSA data is out, and so our Covid PCR Positivity map has automatically updated with the fresh data.

We've also added a couple of features; I'll explain how they work.

🧵 >>>

1/8 When you click on an area now, you're shown a trendline for over the last 7 days, so that you can determine if prevalence is rising or falling locally.

2/8

I've been working with @atomless on a new public tool to help people in England work out what's going on in their local area covid-wise.

It's an interactive map of PCR positivity. 🧵>>>

1/11

jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog…
@atomless You might remember the old UKHSA dashboard had maps of case rates, useful for estimating local risk.

Those maps were one of the tools to help us "live with covid". Alas they're gone, and owing to lack of testing, case rates are next to useless.

2/11

A few points about the data underpinning the research this article is about.

A🧵

1/10

theguardian.com/society/articl… I use this data routinely for all sorts of purposes, not just LC. It's a huge survey that's run every year, about 5 times the size of the ONS/UKHSA infection survey, but with much more range and granular detail, and the data goes back to 2007.

2/10

It's become very difficult for the clinically vulnerable to judge when might be a safe - or at least safer - time to access healthcare.

That's partly because the tools have been taken away from them. The data is poor and now often comes too late.

A short 🧵

1/6

https://twitter.com/SalWitcher/status/1825864521493172660

Case data and admissions data are indicative but both are now misleading given the lack of testing.

Look at cases on the UKHSA dashboard, and you'd have no idea that we're still in a much bigger wave than last Christmas.

2/6

I've been trying to make sense of the reasoning of the JCVI in its decisions about the Autumn 2024 covid vaccination offer.

(JCVI's the UK authority who recommend who to offer vaccinations to).

1/21 This year, the vaccine is restricted to over-65s, residents in care homes, and very narrow high risk groups.

JCVI recommended against it being offered to frontline healthcare workers, carers, family of the immunocompromised, and every else under 65.

2/21

It is depressing to see so much misinformation crammed into one article, @BBCNews, @AureliaAllen.

I barely know where to begin, so full is it of mathematical impossibilities, self-contradictions, and inaccuracies.

1/9

bbc.co.uk/news/articles/… @BBCNews @AureliaAllen 1 in every 25000 would be a total of 2704 people with covid in the whole of the UK.

2/9

There's something a bit off about this norovirus story doing the rounds today. /1 There's no question that there's been a sharp rise in the number of adult beds occupied with diarrhoea & vomiting symptoms over the last week. /2