The PCR positivity map is out, and UKHSA have finally deigned to describe covid activity as "medium".

UKHSA national positivity is 13.23%.

Adjusted for non-reporting we make it 15.27%.



1/ jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog… Hospital stats have been updated to the end of September - so, ten days ago.

As with positivity, there are many hospitals that aren't reporting.

One indicative figure is hospital staff off sick with covid: 3-400 most of the year, but climbed to nearly 700 over September.

2/8

The PCR positivity map is out, and it's evident that everywhere is seeing a significant surge.

UKHSA positivity has risen to 11.83%.

Adjusted for non-reporting areas, we make that 13.77%.



1/8 jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog… Most areas that weren't reporting in the south have started again, except Kent and E Sussex.

Even Southampton (who issued an avoid A&E notice on Tuesday) have reported.

In fact, this week they've reported all their data going back to March - it confirms what I suspected.

2/8

The PCR positivity map is out, and you'll see we've added a new feature this week.

A National Average (adjusted) is displayed at the top of the map, below the banner.

What is it?

1/14 This national average is our attempt to compensate for the number of areas that are not reporting.

UKHSA's published average is calculated counting all the 0% areas as genuine 0s, which means their national average is skewed downwards.

2/14

I know I don't often post except for Thursday's map updates, but there's something I need to discuss with you about the national PCR positivity rate.

That's the rate shown here.

🧵👇 At the height of the October wave last year, every single area in England bar one was reporting test results regularly.

The map had no shaded areas.

The PCR positivity map is out, and while things may have calmed a little in Cumbria, and in Devon, everywhere else looks to be rising.



1/7 jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog… National positivity started climbing again 10 days ago and was 9.25% as of last Friday.

Unfortunately that rise was before schools went back, so we're yet to see the usual start-of-term boost.

2/7

The PCR positivity map is out, with national positivity holding at 9%.

I'm a bit dubious about that 9%, because most of the areas dropping out of reporting this week are ones that were heading for very high rates.

1/6 Last week Thurrock & Medway were headed for 20%+; this week they're reporting 0%.

But Havering & Bexley, testing solidly are now on 20%+, so I suspect the drop-outs are too.

2/6

The PCR positivity map is out.

National positivity has rebounded very suddenly to the highest level it's been all year.

It looks like most areas are seeing the yoyo effect this week.



1/7 jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog… The upturn has been particularly sudden and sharp, from 5.9 to 7.26% over the last week.

We haven't seen sudden & rapid growth like this since the autumn wave last year.

12% of areas aren't reporting, so 7.26% is an underestimate.

2/7

The PCR positivity map is out, and weekly surveillance is reporting quite a large increase from 5.3 to 6%.

There's a higher level across all areas, but some are worth pointing out.



1/7 jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog… In the north, Teeside, Tyneside, and Cumbria all look quite alarming.

Gateshead is trying to get through it by testing very little, hence is the outlier. But Sunderland's testing is good - I'd take their rate as a guideline.

2/7

The PCR positivity map is out, and this week national positivity has risen to 5.2%.

With a sharply increased number of areas not reporting this week, and with very visible outbreaks elsewhere, the average is likely to have been skewed downwards.



1/9 jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog… We're now seeing the cluster that was in Oxfordshire spread very widely and in all compass directions.

Oxon has dramatically reduced testing, but that can't hide the levels shown by normal levels of testing in surrounding counties. Gloucs. is a good example.

2/9

The PCR positivity map is out.

Last week national positivity was up from 4.2 to 4.6%.

This week it's risen to 5%.

Where are the rises?



1/12 jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog… (By the way, I'm aware that UKHSA say it's at 4.9%.

The rolling average is 4.987%.

Let's just say I now have my concerns about their maths, as well as their basic grasp of English: words like 'baseline' and 'stable'.)

2/12

The PCR positivity map is out, reflecting a rise in national positivity from 4.2% to 4.6%.

If we compare last week's map with this week, we see that the rise isn't concentrated in one area.

Rather, the rise is more evenly spread across the country.



1/7 jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog…
The peak outlier is Medway, but when we check the data it seems they've just decided to start reporting again, based on few tests, after nearly 3 months.

Kent is higher than the average, and you can see (of the London areas that are reporting) Lambeth and Lewisham on 12%.

2/7

The PCR map is out and national positivity has risen again to 4.2%.

The number of patients in hospital with covid, which was under 1,000 for most of February, has gone above 1,200 this week.



1/9 jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog… A good amount of the rise has been in the North-East and Yorkshire.

Beds in Durham and Darlington have risen rapidly, as in Harrogate; York has remained at its elevated level.

2/9

The PCR positivity map is out for this week.

Given a plateau at 3.3% national positivity for the last week, I expected the map to correspond exactly to trusts having problems.

I wasn't prepared for just how accurate it is.



1/13 jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog… First the good news.

Gloucestershire, Worcestershire, Birmingham have all calmed down, with admissions dropping in all areas.

(Every week I cross-check the map data with the current hospital stats before I post.)

2/13

The PCR positivity map has updated.

This week's data shows us where the increase in positivity is focused. All the hotspots correlate with rising hospital admissions.



1/6 jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog… There's rising positivity across the Midlands, with admissions doubling over the last week in Birmingham, Leics., Worcs., Derby and also further SW in Gloucs.

Wolverhampton shows the most rapid rise, with admissions tripling.

2/6

There was an article in the FT this weekend, purporting to discover that there has been no increase in illness in Britain - merely an increase in people claiming more generous health benefits.



1/16

https://x.com/FT/status/1864965532614602982

I was surprised to see it's by the normally reality-based @jburnmurdoch.

In some ways, the 'mirage' he's arguing against is one of his own making. He candidly admits over-estimating his 2022 view that Britain's ill health made it an outlier in Europe.

2/16

We've been working on a few changes to the UK Covid PCR positivity map.

One of the changes is quite dramatic, so I wanted to give people an advance view and an explanation before tomorrow's data drops and the map updates.



1/9 jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog… If you've been following me the last few weeks, you'll know I had concerns about one area misreporting.

This meant the colour scale of the whole map was being distorted by that single anomalous area.

This is what it looked like last Thursday.

2/9

The PCR positivity map has updated again today, and it takes a bit of deciphering this time.

I'll talk (tweet? twalk?) you through it.



1/11 jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog… Initially it looks as though the map reflects the reduced positivity reported by UKHSA this week, down to 11.32%, in line with the decline shown by NOIDs on Monday.

But as always the devil is in the detail.

2/11

The UKHSA dashboard has been 'refreshed'.

This is what it looks like now.

1/6 The first thing I want to note is that the refresh has broken all the links on the Covid PCR positivity map.

Please note, the data is still there; it just requires a bit of work to get it easily accessible again.



2/6 jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog…

This week's UKHSA data is out, and so our Covid PCR Positivity map has automatically updated with the fresh data.

We've also added a couple of features; I'll explain how they work.

🧵 >>>

1/8 When you click on an area now, you're shown a trendline for over the last 7 days, so that you can determine if prevalence is rising or falling locally.

2/8

I've been working with @atomless on a new public tool to help people in England work out what's going on in their local area covid-wise.

It's an interactive map of PCR positivity. 🧵>>>

1/11

jamestindall.info/skeuomorpholog…
@atomless You might remember the old UKHSA dashboard had maps of case rates, useful for estimating local risk.

Those maps were one of the tools to help us "live with covid". Alas they're gone, and owing to lack of testing, case rates are next to useless.

2/11

A few points about the data underpinning the research this article is about.

A🧵

1/10

theguardian.com/society/articl… I use this data routinely for all sorts of purposes, not just LC. It's a huge survey that's run every year, about 5 times the size of the ONS/UKHSA infection survey, but with much more range and granular detail, and the data goes back to 2007.

2/10