1/ New Nuclear/Solar Blog.

Highest Level Takeaway:
1)There is a wide range of possible outcomes for nuclear from game changing cost declines to status quo.
2)Solar's trajectory is pretty clear, it's declining in costs (maybe not declining so much relative to what's possible for nuclear) and growing.

Keep scrolling for nuance... 2/Had we not over regulated nuclear it may have been the lowest cost source of electricity today.

BUT, that's not the world we live in. Nuclear costs skyrocketed while solar kept declining.

Now we are at an interesting point in time where regulation headwinds could become tailwinds.

1/Here's a thread to send to people when they quote the media saying there is an EV slowdown. Add your comments/takes so it can be a useful resource.

Why is the media claiming an EV slowdown?
It's a case of missing the forrest for the trees. 2/Year over year EV sales growth is decelerating.
113% in 2021
59% in 2022
28% in 2023
That's the trees. It's the wrong thing to look at.

What should you look at?

1/A lot of people talking energy storage/megapack so here is a quick thread for those wanting to follow along/if you want to contribute:

ARK's 2019 analysis sizing the energy storage market at $800 billion, but bigger if battery prices go below $150/kWh ark-invest.com/articles/analy… 2/Another good resource to look at is Lazard's levelized cost of storage: lazard.com/media/451882/l…

It has their key assumptions:

1/Do we live in a linear world?

This is global battery electric vehicle sales.

The question is where do we go from here? 2/You can fit a diffusion curve to EV adoption quite well:

1/@VitalikButerin Would love to discuss and share our modeling.

It ultimately comes down to a different business model and lower/negative electricity prices.

https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin/status/1552945774060703746

2/One instructive analogy could be a Hollywood Studio vs Amazon Prime.

Hollywood studio needs hits b/c that's its whole business. Looks at Amazon Prime spending as irrational on cost per viewership. But Prime is part of a suite of services.

1/What is current demand for vehicles?

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey asks: Do you think the next 12 months or so will be a good time or a bad time to buy a new vehicle?

More people than ever said "Bad Time" going all the way back to 1961. 2/But automakers claim demand is strong and point to low inventory on dealer lots.

But is inventory on dealer lots? How much inventory is in people's driveways after buying a car to avoid public transport during COVID?

1/2021 battery electric vehicle(BEV) thread with data from ev-volumes

The BEV market grew 112% yoy. It hasn't grown this quickly since 2012, which is pretty much the start of the modern BEV era

and it looks clear that incremental demand is for electric not gas powered vehicles. 2/There were roughly 4.8 million BEVs sold in 2021.

1/Applying Wright's Law to LFP batteries:

Cumulative LFP battery production appears to be where cumulative more nickel-dense chemistry production was in 2016.

If LFP ramps in the same way the battery industry did over the past 5 years, it would suggest an LFP price of $41/kWh. 2/The learning rate for LFP cells appears to be roughly the same as other lithium-ion batteries at ~28%. So for every cumulative doubling a 28% cost decline.

The difference is that a lower cumulative production base means a doubling should be easier/can occur faster.

1/Cool things I learned today:

One of the first implementations of suspension for coaches in the 17th century was two giant straps of leather.

Instead of having the coach body directly connected to the frame it hung on two leather straps. 2/It wasn’t until about 200 years later that coaches started using steel pincer springs for suspension.

1/Tesla won over California early. In 2020 it seems to have started winning over the rest of the US. 2/In 2020 Model 3 sales seem to be less concentrated in California than similar cars from competitors.

It's worth noting Tesla only has stores in 31 states.

1/ Apple EV Thread...aka Apple's project "Titan"

Was "Titan" short for Lithium TITANate battery (SCiB)?

...and how would it compare to Tesla? 2/ credit to @Gfilche who mentioned this type of battery in his video.

What is the tradeoff with a lithium titanate battery vs lithium iron phosphate or nickel based chemistries?

Lower energy density, higher cost, but higher power density.

1/Broadly speaking automation brings non-market activity into the market.

Every year in the US there's over $3 trillion of
non-market driving activity.

What does "non-market" activity mean? 2/The washing machine took unpaid time spent cleaning clothes and monetized it through washing machine manufacturers and service providers.

1/ Daimler just had their strategy update.

I think the EV portion can be summed up as: "Everyone keeps telling us the future is electric, but we're not fully convinced." 2/ Their first EV built from the ground up comes out next year

...just 9 years after Tesla's Model S.

1/ Tesla is creating and killing the electric vehicle competition.

Tesla’s battery day affirms Wright’s Law and spells trouble for the competition. 2/ Wright's Law states that for every cumulative doubling of production costs fall by a fixed percent.

This applies beyond batteries, but we will start there.

Note the X axis is cumulative kWh not time. That is, time doesn't guarantee lower costs, increased production does.

1/ I think Tesla just announced its plans for a
400 mile range $25,000 electric vehicle.

If delivered in 2023 this would put Tesla ~3 years ahead of our original cost curve. 2/ Batteries typically make up ~20% of the cost of the car. $25,000 x 20% = $5,000 to spend on batteries.

A 56% cost reduction on a $/kWh basis likely gets Tesla to around ~$56/kWh. $5,000/$56=~90kWh

4.5 miles/kWh * 90kWh = 405 miles

Let's dive in:

Neuralink presentation starting soon:

Post questions and thoughts as replies here. Remember, before the cyborg future, the first step is to be better than the Utah Array deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/hand…

1/ Why does Musk keep hinting at his excitement for an electric jet?

In the past he has said that electric flight starts to get interesting once you hit 400wh/kg

https://twitter.com/WholeMarsBlog/status/1297765413153992704

2/ Doubling energy density in an EV is beneficial, but the car is on the ground so it's relatively marginal. Removing 150 kg from the Model 3 probably adds ~15 miles of range. Though it furthers its lead relative to the competition.

But for a drone or something airborne...

1/ Labor productivity in the US education industry has been falling for decades, but technology could reverse this trend. 2/ Go from 1 teacher reaching 20 students at a time to superstar teachers, or practitioners in the field, reaching millions.

1/ A look at the interconnectedness and fragility of the traditional auto system.

The system is built on two key tenets:
1. The car as necessity
2. Incremental tech improvement

...and both are being challenged by ride-hailing and autonomous electric vehicles. 2/ The car as necessity.

Post 08/09 people prioritized auto loans over their mortgages because they relied on cars to keep their jobs.

Today, ride-hailing is far more ubiquitous, people are working from home, and default rates are approaching financial crisis levels.

1/Today's brainstorm topic: VW software issues

It could cost >$800M to fix, or roughly the cost to develop a whole new car.

Is this unique to VW or will others face the same problem? 2/The vehicle is in production and test drivers are finding hundreds of bugs. electrive.com/2020/02/25/sof…

1/ Super interesting article out today about a Utah Array implant being used to help a blind woman see. technologyreview.com/s/615148/a-new…

The Utah Array is what Neuralink aims to be better than.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1224171371003097088

2/ The 100 electrode implant allowed for 10x10 pixel resolution.

If they implanted 6 they say it could have enabled vision at 60x60 pixels.

Neuralink is ~3,000 electrodes.