#HurricaneRiskCalculator is showing some eye-popping wind probabilities for potential #Hurricane #Helene for #Tallahassee, including Cat 1 (50%); Cat 3 (21%); and Cat 5 (1.7%).

BUT - should these be believed?

Let's delve into the forecast scenario!

@GovRonDeSantis

1/ 2/ The wind speed probabilities that drive the location-based output of #HurricaneRiskCalculator () come from Forecasts of Hurricanes using Large-ensemble Outputs (#FHLO), a wind hazard model that considers the flow-dependent uncertainty of the atmosphere using global ensembles.

It's important to note that #PTC9 hasn't actually formed yet. Until it becomes a tropical depression with a well-defined wind center, there will be more uncertainty than normal.

Here are the GEFS ensemble member tracks (red) and a 1000 physically-plausible synthetic tracks that have been bootstrapped up from the GEFS ensemble tracks. There is still considerable spread at this point.wxrisk.io

As promised, here's an update on my experience now that I'm 36 hours past my #Novavax vaccination. All in all, it's been very good.

In this thread I'll compare the side effects I experienced from @Novavax to my previous #Moderna vaccinations.

1/ 2/ First, the shot itself and arm soreness. I won't lie - the initial shot stings quite a bit, more than a flu shot. My arm was moderately sore by later in the day, but not as bad as the deep arm soreness I had after my Moderna shots.

@NWSAlbuquerque @Bewickwren I understand the current constraints, but this is where I'd suggest a change is needed: the public have a right to be alerted if there's an evacuation order anywhere in their county/S.A.M.E area. Such an alert could simply be a general "There's a wildfire in X County ..."

1/ @NWSAlbuquerque @Bewickwren 2/ "... and local evacuations have been issued. Please go to <website of agency having jurisdiction> to get more information."

That's all that's needed. People just need to know and they have to have a way to know when all other comms are out (e.g., internet, cell phones,