It’s hard to cut through the noise right now but here’s some very encouraging news. The U.S. has submitted questions to European governments about Ukraine’s security: how will they back Ukraine's security & with what forces, for how long & what will we do if Russia attacks.

1/6 What other sanctions on Russia and help are the Europeans prepared to commit to & enforce? What should the US do in short and long term to participate in these security arrangements?

These are right questions to ask & are consistent with changing intra-NATO burden sharing.

2/6

I want everyone celebrating cuts to NIH and NSF and other government agencies that fund research to pause for a second and look their smart phone.

Anywhere between 75% and 85% of the technology it uses comes from government-funded research: GPS (DOD), touch-screen (NSF)…

1/4 …lithium-ion battery (DOE and Japanese govt), Siri (DARPA), microprocessors (early funding by DARPA), internet & wifi (ARPANET, NSF, Australian govt). Apple and the rest build on this and commercialize it.

2/4

The Russian (gas) terrorists are at it again. Gazprom halted deliveries of gas to the breakaway region of Transnistria, sparking a crisis there that might lead to a humanitarian catastrophe and economic collapse. What's going on?

1/12 Transnistria broke away from Moldova with Russian help right after the end of the Cold War, and has been a Russian-controlled outpost since. Because it has no real economy to speak of, it has been reliant on Russian gas for all its energy needs.

2/12

Why are people surprised that the Russian economy can't take the strain of the war?

In 1968, at the height of the Vietnam War, the US spent about 25% of the federal budget and 2.5% GDP on the war. Russia is now spending about 40% of its budget and 8% of GDP on the war.

1/3 In 1968, the US GDP per capita was about $13,817. Adjusted in chained 2023 dollars, it is equivalent to $31,500 today. In 2023, the Russian GDP per capita was $13,817, or barely 44% of the US income half a century ago.

2/3

This sounds inflammatory but really needs some parsing to understand the context. According to the Reagan Institute survey, the top reasons Americans support arming Ukraine are its need to defend itself (25%), need to counter Russia (20%), risk of conflict expansion (16%).

1/8

https://twitter.com/FromSteveHowell/status/1860581239876399469

Among the top reasons for opposing sending weapons are costs too high (18%), America First (17%), conflict does not concern US (16%). You can see the full slides at

2/8 reaganfoundation.org/media/362664/r…

Russia is in very deep trouble because its economy cannot sustain the war expenditures on the scale it needs to be able to advance for much longer. Even Moscow-based analysts now warn that 2025 would be dire indeed. But don't take my word for it. Here's an overview.

1/15 The ruble has sunk to 104 to US$. With the exception of the brief period right at the outset of the invasion, it has not been so weak since the dreary years after the collapse of the USSR. Back in 2022, the Central Bank intervened to prop the value of the ruble & it worked.

2/15

Putin has ordered the liberation of Kursk before the Jan inauguration of Trump. The Kremlin is pouring troops by the thousands there but they have stalled again. Losses are incredible because commanders know that if victory is achieved nobody will ask them about the cost.

1/8 The Russian economy is tanking faster than I expected, and now even state-affiliated economists in Moscow report that 2025 is probably going to be absolutely dire, with things getting worse after that.

2/8

As the dust settles after the election, everyone is processing the results. I have seen people call for scrubbing of all their social media accounts (because the coming "fascist" regime is going to be using these to "get them")...

1/n I have seen people talking about "internment camps" and "mass deportations" including of US citizens, I have seen people saying they are breaking with family and friends who voted for Trump because they must be evil and immortal to have selected a person like him, and so on.

2/

Biden is said to consider advancing Ukraine's NATO bid on the West German model (which did not require the territorial integrity of Germany and only extended the security guarantees to areas under the control of the West German government).

1/8 With Rutte, a strong pro-Ukrainian voice, as the new Secretary General of NATO who was appointed today, this is an eminently possible development provided Biden isn't dissuaded at the last moment.

2/8

This is a thoughtful article by @e_sarotte who argues that Ukraine can become a member of NATO even with part of its territory under Russian occupation. A few thoughts:

1/7

foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/better… I also believed that NATO membership is the only real security guarantee for Ukraine, and that it’s essential to obtain it. I also think that Russians will occupy parts of Ukraine for the foreseeable future, and that this shouldn’t stop it from becoming a member.

2/7

Sanctions Don’t Work, Right? Right?

The Deputy Head of the Russian Central Bank Chistyukhin warned that the new wave of Western sanctions that blocked payments in dollars and Euros threatens the Russian economy with “death.”



1/6moscowtimes.ru/2024/06/26/v-t… Setting aside the melodrama (the economy won’t “die” — I don’t even know what this means), he points out to considerable problems that will greatly increase Russia’s economic woes.

2/6

From the series “Sanctions Don’t Work and Russia’s Finances are Stronger Than Ever”

Several weeks ago, the Russian Ministry of Finance stopped issuing government bonds needed to fund the victorious war & booming economy due to “market volatility.”

1/7
moscowtimes.ru/2024/06/19/obo… Since the Kremlin is desperate for money, they decided to try selling these bonds (called OFZs) on June 19th.

The first auction for 500 billion rubles at fixed rates until 2035 was canceled by the Ministry due to “lack of offers at acceptable prices”…

2/7

While I agree with the conclusion of this article, the analysis is flawed in several aspects. It suggests that Russian society is unified in mobilization for war and things are going great for Putin. The evidence & logic, however, are… meh.

1/11

theatlantic.com/international/… I’ll just go ahead and say that the 75% support for the regime cited from polls is utter nonsense. Too many people have discussed this so I won’t belabor it. We just don’t know & can’t really know. So let’s look at other indicators.

2/11

Very interesting article, "At Any Cost: How Ukrainians Think about Self-Defense Against Russia" that is coming out in the American Journal of Political Science, with very important implications for the prospects for peace / diplomacy / terms in Ukraine.

1/8

https://twitter.com/JaninaDill/status/1795529877145423914

It is a survey experiment conducted in Ukraine in July 2022, so before the ZSU successes in Kharkiv and Kherson. It finds that Ukrainians are overwhelmingly NOT willing to trade territory or political autonomy for peace.

2/8

A hundred or so @UCSanDiego students and two faculty marched to Chancellor's residence. This is over the line & I take exception to "Faculty Demand" posters as they do NOT speak in my name, or in the name of vast majority of faculty.



1/14 The University also gave the faculty a fact sheet about the encampment, and it contains some relevant details that I did not know about. Here are the highlights:

2/14

I went to my campus at @UCSanDiego to see the protests and offer some help to students who need to talk to someone about what's going on here and in the Middle East. Here are some observations.

TL;DR: Both protesters & police are keen on keeping the protests peaceful.

1/13 The campus is closed to vehicular traffic. I parked at the Glider Port, along with students who were heading to the protest (wearing keffiyehs). It was sort of funny to see what people describe as revolutionaries look for a legal parking spot, but that's what they did.

2/13

The Myth of the Lost Peace of 2022

This claim that the warring sides "almost finished an agreement" is entirely unsupported by the evidence. In fact, this article points to precisely the opposite: there was NO agreement to be had in the spring of 2022.

Let me explain.

1/9

https://twitter.com/DrRadchenko/status/1780096239716995327

It is clear that Ukraine tried to negotiate in good faith: their basic proposal was to offer neutrality in exchange for Western security guarantees and Russia withdrawing to pre-invasion lines, with status of Donbas/Crimea to be resolved later (implying concessions).

2/9

A Quick NATO Explainer

NATO was founded in 1949 during the first major crisis over West Berlin when the Soviets blockaded the city in an attempt to force the West to abandon it.

1/ Located deep inside Soviet-controlled East Germany, West Berlin was nightmarish logistically, indefensible militarily and useless strategically. It made good sense to abandon it so as to not to tempt the Soviets into provoking a crisis the West could not handle.

2/

Some (speculative) thoughts on Prigozhin's demise: Who did it?

TL;DR: FSB, maybe (maybe not).

1/19 Everyone on twitter seems to be certain that Putin killed Prigozhin and, this is important, that this was 100% foreseeable. I have been trying to reconcile this with what we know of his behavior and put a coherent story together... and it just does not work.

2/19

The movie Oppenheimer seems to have revived the debate about the role of the nukes in ending the Pacific War. They did, but not in the way people seem to imagine.

A thread.

1/14 At the time of surrender, Japan had over 2 million men ready to fight. The incendiary raids on major cities (firebombing of Tokyo killed as many as a nuke) had not undermined morale. The dogged defense of Okinawa showed that invasion could be exceedingly costly.

2/14

Prigozhin live update from the HQ of the Southern Military District in Rostov.

- we have taken under control military installations in Rostov, including the airport
1/6 - planes participating in the war continue to depart on schedule, we’ve only assumed control to ensure that the fighters attack the Ukrainians and not us
2/6