Lord of SMD Capital. No new followers allowed. $TSLA Legend. Leeroy Jenkins of TSLA calls. ⚔️ Gang Leader (600+) I mainly post in private group, DM to join
May 15 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
since i always say fuck corporations
here’s a couple mini hacks you can use at whole foods (self checkout):
1) BOGO free pizza slice: at the hot bar, they have individual pizza slice boxes that you scan. put two slices in a box and only scan it once at checkout
2) 50%+ off brazil nuts: at the nut aisle, they let you fill up a bag and notate the barcode number for the respective nut type to charge per pound. use cheapest code from different nut, so instead of $13/lb it’s more like $5/lb
back in college, whole foods had a loyalty card for burritos/sandwiches (buy 9 and get 10th free or some shit)
i found the barcode they use to scan online
and then always scanned 10 before going in so i redeem free burrito
after they stopped offering that, what i did was i would order guac which comes with a separate barcode (eg $1-2) and you were suppose to scan the burrito barcode AND the guacamole barcode. i’d only scan the guac
people, like stocks, are subject to mean reversion
people who are naturally losers will experience temporary wins
but eventually, they will mean revert back to their true state
people who are naturally deceitful scumbags will be able to pretend they’re nice and trustworthy
but eventually they reveal themselves in certain circumstances
relationships are also subject to mean reversion
so in general, i’m never surprised or caught off guard when a person crashes out and mean reverts
i just simply pluck them out of my life. because people don’t really change. life’s not a movie or a book with a nice ending
people are destined to mean revert back to their true level of capability, of character, of integrity, of trustworthiness
it’s just a matter of time until the truth emerges
whereas the winners and good people also have periods wherein they’re on a soul crushing bad luck streak
but like a great movie, eventually that winner prevails and mean reverts back to their true state of dominance and purity. the story doesn’t end in failure and despair like the natural losers. because the winner fights until the death - he either wins or he dies.
the loser breaks the line and flees the battlefield - to save no one but himself during his one defining moment - only to hide forever in fear and shame
it’s just a matter of time as well
it takes extraordinary levels of dedication, willpower, focus to break the chains of mean reversion
in the aggregate, vast majority simply cannot do it
they eventually give up and let fate take hold
in some facet of life
we’ve all been through it and see it, esp as we get older and begin to choose the battles we take on, and the ones we let go of trying
when young energetic and no ties/responsibilities, it’s easy to simply run through every single wall. you can take on the world in its entirety and view everything as the enemy and conquer them one by one
but that changes as you age. you realize there are growing constrains - time, energy, relationships, dependencies, risks
but the beautiful part is that you don’t need to take on 50 battles. you naturally choose a handful
and like Guts, fighting against destiny fate and evil, you somehow pull off the impossible to rage against the gravity of mean reversion and time
those are the kind of people worthy of respect and admiration. because they pulled it off while fending off mathematical gravity and time. they did it while no one watched. they cared for the minute details that are overlooked and forgotten. they chose every single day to fight
so choose your battles, dedicate yourself and become who you are destined to be
Oct 24, 2024 • 11 tweets • 8 min read
Q3 2024 TSLA Earnings Report
Key quotes organized by topic, pulled from both the transcript and the presentation deck. Feel free to bookmark for future reference:
1. Financial Performance
[Transcript] "Tesla achieved record Q3 deliveries despite a challenging automotive environment." - Elon Musk
[Transcript] "We generated record operating cash flows of $6.3 billion, and automotive revenues grew both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year." - Vaibhav Taneja, CFO
[Presentation] "Total revenue increased 8% YoY to $25.2 billion, driven by growth in vehicle deliveries, energy storage, and services." (Implied Growth: $23.4 billion in Q3 2023 to $25.2 billion in Q3 2024)
[Presentation] "Operating income rose to $2.7 billion, yielding a 10.8% operating margin, up 54% YoY from $1.8 billion in Q3 2023." (Implied Growth: 7.6% margin in Q3 2023 to 10.8% in Q3 2024)
[Presentation] "GAAP net income was $2.2 billion in Q3, with non-GAAP net income reaching $2.5 billion, up 17% and 8% YoY, respectively."
[Transcript] "We observed a reduction in average selling prices (ASPs) due to financing incentives, impacting upfront revenue recognition."
[Transcript] "Regulatory credit sales topped $2 billion this year, reflecting elevated levels of demand."
[Presentation] "Free cash flow reached $2.7 billion in Q3, up 223% YoY from $848 million in Q3 2023, contributing to a total cash position of $33.6 billion." (Implied Growth: $26.1 billion in Q3 2023 to $33.6 billion in Q3 2024, up 29%)
[Presentation] "COGS per vehicle reached a record low of ~$35,100, down from an average of ~$38,000 in Q3 2023." (Implied Improvement: ~7.6% reduction in COGS YoY)
2. Production and Deliveries
[Presentation] "Total vehicle deliveries increased 6% YoY to 462,890 in Q3, setting a new record." (Implied Growth: 435,059 in Q3 2023 to 462,890 in Q3 2024)
[Presentation] "Model 3/Y production reached 443,668 units, a 6% YoY growth." (Implied Growth: From 416,800 units in Q3 2023 to 443,668 in Q3 2024)
[Presentation] "Other model production increased 91% YoY to 26,128 units in Q3 2024." (Implied Growth: From 13,688 units in Q3 2023 to 26,128 in Q3 2024)
[Transcript] "We are targeting a 20% to 30% vehicle growth next year, barring major external disruptions like wars or extreme interest rate hikes." - Elon Musk
[Presentation] "Cybertruck production increased sequentially and achieved positive gross margin for the first time."
[Transcript] "We're on track to deliver more affordable models in the first half of 2025."
[Presentation] "Tesla's 7-millionth vehicle was produced on October 22, 2024."
[Transcript] "We aim to achieve 2 million annual Cybercab production by 2026 across multiple factories."
Oct 5, 2024 • 18 tweets • 7 min read
$TSLA 2025 outlook (bookmark this)
yesterday i shared a walkthrough of my technical and fundamental outlook with @herbertong and @R6Alex
below in this thread are all of the discussion slides, which were pulled from my latest 4-hr video series on the technical indicators i plan to use to manage the upcoming breakout -- and i post about them daily in my 400+ private X group to keep us all on track (link in bio)
let me know your thoughts!
first we discussed about core tailwinds, including the fact that we're now in a fed easing cycle
bonus: 2nd picture is from Tom Lee / FS Insight - and it shows that stocks go higher 1/3/6/9/12 months after first cut (FYI: i post their daily updates in my private group; their subscription costs $200/month)
Apr 5, 2024 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
i just received an invitation to invest into xAI at a $20bn valuation
Should I post the investment memo here?
We’re incredibly excited to launch this opportunity to invest into xAI, Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company.
Musk has played a key role in leading the top AI applications/companies. He co-founded OpenAI ($86B+) and Tesla is leading the world in autonomous driving and soon in humanoid robotics ($1.2T in 2021).
He has now started xAI and is raising $3B. We understand the round is already oversubscribed by top-tier funds and institutional investors.