A brutal regime falls. But there’s a problem: the UN and several countries say the victorious rebels are terrorists. What to do? There’s no playbook for Islamist insurgents faced with the challenges of running a country. But there is a precedent, in Afghanistan. 1/ Of course, the rise of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Taliban’s return to power in 2021 are two very different situations. Still, some of the Taliban’s difficulties in recent years will also confront HTS because of how the international system works. 2/

Draconian misrule by a small coterie of clerics is driving Afghanistan deeper into isolation, oppressing half the population while making it harder and harder for the entire country to survive the humanitarian crisis. (THREAD) hrw.org/news/2022/12/2… The Taliban claim they are focused on rebuilding the country after the war, but who will work in their hospitals if they shut women out of universities? Who will teach in the schools? Who will invest in the country's economic recovery?

1. The U.S. plans to send $3.5 billion into a trust fund as the first step in putting Afghanistan’s frozen assets back to work for the recovery of the war-ravaged economy. I’ve been talking to those involved; this is a thread about their hopes and fears. home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel… 2. Diplomats have been working on this plan for months, to mitigate the world’s biggest humanitarian crisis. Prices for food and other basics are rising in Afghanistan: a day’s labour buys about one third less wheat flour as compared with recent years. docs.wfp.org/api/documents/…

The Taliban’s decision to prevent girls from attending secondary schools is terribly disappointing, and could have far-reaching consequences for Afghanistan’s relationship with the world. This thread offers some initial analysis and context. 1/ Afghan schools opened and shut several times in recent years as the COVID-19 pandemic swept the country. All schools were closed for health reasons in June 2021 and further disruptions resulted from the Taliban takeover in August 2021. 2/ aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacifi…

As the world focuses on the Ukraine crisis and people fleeing their homes because of war, a new report from @IOMAfghanistan about displaced Afghans got almost no attention. The survey tells two dramatic stories about war and its aftermath. 🧵1/ @IOMAfghanistan The first thing that leaps off the page is the good news. The conclusion of major conflict in Afghanistan has allowed an unprecedented number of Afghans to return home after fleeing war. Millions of people are going back to their villages. 2/