Here’s a snap poll we took at a swing booth in one of the battleground PCs of K’taka:

Total sample- 118 (fairly representative sample wrt gender, age & caste)

BJP+JDS- 52 (44%)
INC- 44 (37%)
NOTA- 3
Undecided-19

I will write a more detailed analysis from this sample below

1/n This is a pure swing booth in Chitradurga PC

It overwhelmingly goes with the party that wins the PC

In 2014 when INC won, there was a 65-30 split in favour of INC in this booth

In 2019 when BJP won, it was 70-30 in favour of BJP

Now lets look more closely at the sample

2/n

What is likely to happen in Maharashtra?

A thread Shivsena is claiming that they would dissolve the assembly. Politically it makes sense for them as a last ditch effort to prevent BJP’s rise to power

But is it possible?

Technically, yes

State cabinet can pass a resolution and recommend the governor to dissolve the house

1/n

What is unfolding and what’s coming (if 🇺🇦 loses), can send chills down your spine

Read the propaganda in preparation of a systematic genocide- coming straight from the top Kremlin Ideologues

The kremlin dog whistle of of “Nazism” is reminiscent of the actual Nazi play book! The way Russia under Putin is dehumanising Ukrainians is eerily similar to how the actual Nazis dehumanised “Non-Aryans”, “communists” etc

“Special military operation” Kremlin calls the GENOCIDE that it is overseeing

Don’t we all remember the biggest Nazi collaborator Stalin?!

GOP will probably take this race irrespective of who’s their gubernatorial candidate

Even the Senate seat held by Pastor Warnock (D) is vulnerable

https://twitter.com/CrowdWisdom360/status/1512611569515266049

Of the 34 senate seats that are up for re-election in 2022 Nov, Dems hold 14 and GOP 20

Even defending 20 seats, GOP is at an advantage to retake the Senate control

They just need to flip 1 D held seat (GA, AZ, NV are vulnerable)

Spare a thought for millions of people suffering from Obsessive Compulsive Disorder, which can often be so chronically distressing that many attempt to end their lives

Years of therapy & meds help them functn optimally

Now with the frenzy about handwashing, many are worsening:( The incessant information overflow is also causing severe anxiety in people, especially in those with preexisting conditions

People who already suffer from Anxiety disorders are having worsened symptoms

Now with lesser availability of mental health care, things may get worse!

While
@rssurjewala
was releasing forged and fake diaries out of desperation, Kolar Congress MP KH Muniyappa’s multi-1000 crores disproportionate assets were exposed by Dalit leaders of Kolar!

And
@RahulGandhi
has renominated him to fight from Kolar, the day after the expose! @rssurjewala @RahulGandhi 100s of acres of land, in multiple locations of the state, cumulatively worth over 2500 crores!

This is what KH Muniyappa, the disgraced Congres MP from Kolar has amassed in the 28 years as an MP & a union minister!

Meanwhile Kolar remains as one of the most backward districts!

Karnataka BJP list: initial take

No sitting MPs dropped so far
Chikkaballapur, Hassan, Chamarajanagar, Bellary really good choices
Chitradurga, messes up choice(was a seat with best chances to flip from Congress to BJP) Former MP and tall Lingayat leader G S Basavaraju gets nominated from Tumkur, yet again. He had lost to Congress’ Muddanume Gowda in 2014.

This time with Cong giving up the seat for JDS, BJP can hope to win this seat with Lingayat-Brahmin-ST-Right hand SC consolidation!

My projections for the upper northern states for upcoming LS polls:

JK
BJP 3
UPA 2
PDP 1

PB
INC 9
NDA 4

HR
NDA 8
INLD 1
INC 1

UKD
BJP 5

HP
BJP 3
INC 1

DL
BJP 7

CG-BJP

Total 46
NDA 31
UPA 13
Oth 2 My Uttar Pradesh projections as things stand today:

BJP+ 49
MGB 30
INC 1

BJP’s base is rock solid in Purvanchal and Harit pradesh. Rohilakhand and Awadh are the problem areas. It can go up and down from here based on how campaign shapes up.

In the next few tweets, I will highlight some of the great steps taken by Indian govt since 2014 towards improving the health status of the population. Much has been said about how little we spend, but no one is interested in looking at the great progress that is being made. A disproportionate number of people who needed heart/vascular surgeries and joint replacement either avoided surgeries to end up with dire consequences or underwent surgeries to end up in poverty! Despite my initial skepticism with capping prices, this seems to have woked well.

The new protem speaker of Karnataka assembly, K G Bopaiah has been 4 times BJP MLA from Virajpet in Kodagu. He has served as speaker during BSY’s tenure, was instrumental in saving the BJP govt when BSY faced imminent loss of trust motion in 2010-11 In October 2010, 11 BJP MLAs including Balachandra Jarakiholi, Belur Gopalkrishna, & S K Bellubbi along with 5 independents(including Gulihatti Shekhar who is now a BJP MLA) who had been dropped from the cabinet had rebelled against BSY & had withdrawn their support to Govt!

A small statistic from yesterday’s results:
BJP lost 26 seats with less than 6000 votes. 13 of those with margins less than 4000. It lost Maski with mere 213 votes, Hirekerur with 555 votes, Kundagol with 634 votes. If it had won even a few of these seats, it would’ve touched 113 Along with this, in some of the seats, BJP lost purely due to its rebel candidates.
1. Bailahongala in Belgaum. Ex MLA Jagadeesh Metgud rebelled against official candt V I Patil. Metgud polled 42k votes while Patil got 37k. Cong’s Kaujalgi won the seat by polling 47k votes!