Outside the clinical "white light" of financial models, quantitative thinking, and contrived stress tests, lies the open vast *dark*, from which the animal called Risk periodically pounces into this light. (1/n)
This proverbial animal - Risk, can see us, wait for us, patiently stalk us, while we go about our lives completely blind to it, only faintly remembering that this black beast hunts our civilization every once in a while (2/n)
Nov 3, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
A mini-thread on my investing style:
My investing style focuses a lot on catalysts. At their essence, catalysts 'reset' market expectations.
So I am actually trading expectations more than anything, sometimes successfully, sometimes not so much.
Lest this be mistaken as an active trading style (and it certainly has elements of that), my exits are not based on "expectation" analysis explicitly, only my entries.
Nov 2, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Taking inspiration from @_ThirdSide_ , making my models public. Pray for me.
Here is the annual projections that I am forecasting for Equitas SFB. Incidentally I made this model at the beginning of the year, giving the final touches to this "view" by July this year. (1/6)
a. Q2'23 results are completely in line, with a decent NII growth of 26%YoY and a softening of the NIM
This is very close to the growth of 27% which I am anticipating on a yearly basis
Speaks more of the franchise strength than my forecasting ability...(2/6)
Dec 26, 2021 • 40 tweets • 11 min read
As NuBank, went public on Dec 9th, we at The Gray Swan, hunkered down into research.
The focus? "Can Indian neo-banks disrupt?"
Its Sunday noon, and a day after Christmas.
With hot chocolate by your side, read this thread.
A mini-fortune could be made and lost here. [1/n]
If you are already a subscriber, open your email - the piece is sitting on your inbox (if you haven't done yet).
If you already have - this is a companion piece [2/n]
Nov 27, 2021 • 29 tweets • 7 min read
⁉️ Quick Quiz :
CONNECT THE FOLLOWING -
Microsoft, Sweden, Credit Cards and Basel 3
🤔🤔
Ladies & gentlemen, if you are puzzled, settle in, and let me take you through a thread 🧵weaving through history, eCommerce, regulations, banking and the world of startups [1]
Stay with me. I promise you by the end of this thread, either of the following 3 will happen: 1. If you are a public market investor: you might rethink your thesis 2. If you are a VC: you will certainly grow cautious
and 3. if you are neither, you will definitely be wary. [2]
May 17, 2021 • 32 tweets • 8 min read
Are you an Indian investor who has missed the ongoing rally in steel, graphite and copper?💹
What if there is a cyclical story that no one is looking at?
Put down your most urgent work, let your deadlines breathe🕐, and join me for a thread.🧵
Unlike commodity plays, infrastructure is not fungible.
That is, building infra in 🇨🇳 is not the same as building infra in 🇮🇳.
Big deal! That everyone knows.
But think deeper. It means, you as an investor is protected from global supply side threats.
Confused? Read on
Jan 9, 2021 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
On Jan 6, 2021, the always stellar Mr @deepakshenoy tweeted, this:
Innocuous 1 sentence, but its a full economic theory at play.
Let me break it down for you. (1/n)
On September 30, 2020, I wrote an article for @CFASocietyIndia where I explained that RBI is all set to lose its ability to set interest rates if it continues to fiddle with the exchange rate (2/n)
Jun 29, 2019 • 37 tweets • 18 min read
The guru of gurus, Sanjoy Bhattacharyya is up on podium and this is going to be one rollicking session #MAW@CFASocietyIndia
"The tragedy of behavioral finance, is there is no grand theory of equilibrium“, starts Mr. B
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