Policy Researcher @RANDCorporation. Work on nuclear weapons and warfare, Russia, and artificial intelligence. Retweet ≠ endorse. Opinions my own.
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Nov 9, 2022 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
The "localized" or "tactical" EMP strike in Ukraine envisioned by this article is a *physical impossibility* 1/10 ft.com/content/d6ecbf…
To get a meaningful high-altitude (HEMP) effect, the nuclear burst has to take place at an altitude of at least 30 kilometers--and generally significantly higher for a strong effect 2/10
Oct 23, 2022 • 25 tweets • 7 min read
With the reputed carrier of Russia's "doomsday torpedo" on the prowl in the Arctic, do we need to worry about cobalt bombs on top of everything else? 1/25 news.usni.org/2022/10/05/rus…
The good news is that cobalt bombs aren't very effective doomsday machines. The bad news is that from a radiological standpoint, "regular" thermonuclear weapons are *worse* than cobalt bombs. 2/25
Oct 16, 2022 • 24 tweets • 5 min read
Folks are asking about the electromagnetic pulse (EMP) effects from the battlefield use of nuclear weapons. TL;DR-if you're close enough to a near-surface nuclear burst to worry about its EMP, you're probably going to be killed by something else--but there are exceptions 1/24
While every nuclear explosion produces an electromagnetic pulse of some kind, not every nuclear EMP is a militarily significant effect. 2/24
Oct 9, 2022 • 23 tweets • 5 min read
With anxieties running high about possible Russian limited nuclear use, we have to ask whether Russian military planners would perceive the likely effects of such an attack the same way we would. Soviet military manuals suggest that the answer to this question may be "no." 1/23
When I was a grad student in Saint Petersburg 15 years ago, I happened upon a curiosity in a used bookstore on Vasilyevsky Island: a Soviet military manual on nuclear weapons effects from 1987 2/23
Oct 3, 2022 • 25 tweets • 6 min read
Russia's reverses in Ukraine and Putin's nuclear saber-rattling have stoked anxieties that Russia might use its non-strategic nuclear weapons. An under-appreciated consideration is that we can't predict the physical consequences of such an attack confidently. 1/25
What we think of as "nuclear weapons effects" such as blast and fallout are incredibly complicated physical phenomena that result from the interaction of the radiation and materials emitted by the detonating weapon with the matter in the surrounding environment. 2/25
