Traders often ask about "Confirmation"

Here is an Educational Thread about it

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To make sure we're talking about the same thing, I'll quickly define "Confirmation" for you:

• Confirmation means waiting for X to happen before entering.

• No Confirmation means entering early without all criteria met.

"Is it better to trade Breakouts or Reversals in this coin?"

Here is a Thread explaining the concept of M.O.E.

It includes:
- defining M.O.E. (margin of error)
- ideal breakout/reversal trading conditions
- real price action examples

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Let me first define "Margin of Error".

It is referring to "how many mistakes you can make and still get away with a win."

My favorite analogy to explain this concept is the Kite-Flying analogy.

Example 1: There is a hurricane outside.
• it doesn't matter what you are using for your kite.
• you could have a literal washing machine attached to a rope as your kite and it would still fly in the sky!
• You don't need a perfectly designed kite to make it fly if there is a hurricane outside.
• Whatever object you choose will successfully work.
• here you have HIGH MARGIN OF ERROR

Example 2: There is no wind outside.
• If you attach a washing machine to rope in this situation... unfortunately it will not fly!
• Even if you try to fly a normal kite... it still won't fly!
• Even if you use a super professional aerodynamic kite, the only way it will fly is if you have a high technical skill of knowing how to fly it with no wind.
• here you have LOW MARGIN OF ERROR

Visualized ↓

VWAP

(Volume Weighted Average Price)

Mini Thread🧵with some educational resources

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Using VWAP for a directional bias

https://x.com/spicyofc/status/1974522913501192638

Here's a THREAD 🧵on 78 places that a Trader can have an advantage over other Traders.

Enjoy ↓ (1-9) Information & Knowledge Edges

→ The advantage of seeing more, seeing sooner, or seeing more clearly than competitors.

---------------

1. Having greater quantity of data than competitors.

2. Having higher quality or cleaner data (less noise, fewer errors, more consistent data).

3. Accessing data faster than others (lower latency).

4. Having exclusive data sources competitors can’t access. (insider info or proprietary info)

5. Processing raw data into insights more effectively. (how good you can look at data and find meaning from it)

6. Holding more historical data for deeper pattern recognition. (this is slightly different to point #1)

7. Identifying data relationships others don’t see (cross-market correlations).

8. Being able to filter irrelevant data faster than others. (how good u can clean data basically)

9. Integrating multiple datasets to form composite indicators.

how I trade "fast spike reversals" on the 1 minute timeframe

a thread 🧵 Step 1.

Price has to first do a "fast/vertical" spike into a level, accompanied with an abnormally high volume spike as well.

This shows that a lot of market buy orders were suddenly executed.

The order book is often "thinner" on the way down than it is on the way up after a move like this.

In this THREAD I will explain "Using Trade Duration to exit Bad Trades faster"

I will cover:
• Findings from my own trades
• How to get these findings on your own
• Practical Tip to cut "outlier trades" early to prevent unnecessary losses

🧵 1) Average Trade Duration data is an Unexpected place to look for Edge.

My best trades tend to pop towards my target fairly quickly while my worst trades will slowly bleed towards my stoploss.

I kept experiencing this again and again.

So I went and collected some data on it.

Want to get into a "Flow State" for Trading more often?

Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi is giga brain Psychologist who studied this specific mental state.

He figured out what the Main 7 Conditions are for entering this state: 🧵 1) Clear Goals

Focus on Inputs (actions in your control) rather than Outputs (the uncontrollable result of your actions)

Good: Collect 100 Trade screenshots for future review
Bad: Try make at least $10k this month

I've been Trading for 7 years.

if I had to start again from scratch, this is how I would do it

Thread: 🧵 1.
Load up an account with $100.

Focus on learning, not earning.

Keeping the risk as low as possible.

1)
A Lesson on Partial Fills:

sometimes there's going to be some player advertising a big sell at a key level, such as a daily or weekly high or just a big fat round number.

Here's a strategy that I take advantage of when I notice that this big sell was only partially filled 🧵 2)
Let's pretend that price has reached the resistance level and then $4.5mil in market buys come through.

That big order absorbed it all and now there is $4.5mil in longs opened up at the highs.

So there's $500k left in sells up at the top.

5 steps I took to level up my Trading: 🧵

Step One:

Focus on ONE setup from ONE strategy
- will increase rate of learning Step Two:

Make the execution as consistent and as easy as possible
- one simple entry, one stop, one target.
- no limit chasing
- no twap

1)
Most traders work very hard but their time is wasted on the wrong things.

Example:
- Trying to find the perfect parameter for their indicator
- Spending hours watching livestreams chart up coins

A terrible use of time. Here's what you can do instead: 2)
Review your trading journal

- Open up every single winning screenshot in 1 window
- Open up the losing screenshots in another window.
- Start with a simple memory refresh by going through all of them one by one.

1)
How to build a trading strategy🧵

First you need to accept the reality that no complex profitable strategy started as complex, it started as simple first THEN complexity was added later

Building something complex initially and hoping it works is a fool's game

Start simple 2)
The hypothesis pt1.

I will start with a "long only" strategy and look into adding shorts later.

Why?
Because longs are easier to trade than shorts.

Why?
USD constantly printing so USD value constantly goes down over time. I would rather be long any asset rather than short.

1)
Having a process to judge market conditions is far more important than your entry/stop/target placement

Your actual strategy means jack shit.

Your process for identifying conditions is everything. 2)
Why?

Ideal market conditions for a particular strategy means the environment gives you the MOST margin for error.

I made 124% in 2023

For context: I trade breakouts on the 1min timeframe on high volatility altcoins.

Here are the biggest mistakes I made that year: 🧵 Mistake #1: Trading with 6hrs or less sleep increases the chances of making mistakes DRAMATICALLY

Sleep deprived trading was leading me to more mistakes and would result in me going on tilt faster which compounds into a series of bad trades OR forcing myself to go on break.

1) This made me a better Trader:

Simplifying my strategy = Made it easier to execute
Easier to Execute = Less mistakes made
Less mistakes made = Less money Lost
Less Money lost = More total Profit

Example below: 🧵 2) Example:

"After price breaks out of resistance, try to enter a long.

But then how do you define:

"Breaks out"
"Resistance"
"Try to Enter"

These are actually vague terms which are open for interpretation. There's many ways to define them.

Solution? To simplify.

1)
I was stuck for a LONG time with trying to learn how to trade.

Here's how I got myself UNSTUCK: 🧵 2)
I had to recognize the fact that my problem wasn't actually anything to do with trading at all.

No it wasn't the strategy/indicators I was using. It couldn't be.

I knew it couldn't be because there are Pros out there with just S/R lines and nothing else, printing stacks.

Just hit into a $SXP long

this market is insane.

If I cop the L then my bias and opinion on this coin was wrong. the chop is making me nervous, will probs be cutting soon.

Got long $SXP

This shitcoin is going crazy.

The structure of this looks ridiculous. Added More.

1) IT'S TIME

For my February 2023 Performance review thread.

Ended the month with +51.64% PNL, which is absolutely outrageous.

Markets have been overly generous this month.

I'm going to assume moving forward from here it's going to be ALOT harder. 2)

I've posted every single trade here on twitter.

I do this because before I'm about to hit into a trade, I know in the back of my mind that others are gonna see it.

I have less probability of entering into a dumb/tilt/boredom trade if I'm being transparent about my entries