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Stephen Rooke Profile picture
Stephen Rooke
@srookejd
I don't tweet often, but when I do it's about #malaria, #law, #cricket, and #jeopardy
Nov 6, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/3 UPDATE (2:30am ET): PA SOS ballot totals haven't updated since my 12am ET post, but # of uncounted ballots has decreased. This could reflect:
1. Vote totals haven't uploaded
2. The status of ballots is lagging and are now catching up

#ElectionResults2020 #CountEveryVote 2/3 While I suspect it is #1, without knowing for sure I don't want to publish misleading or inaccurate model results.

The number of counted ballots has gone down by 44K since 11pm, but only 10K ballots have been reported. If it is #1, then it is likely that Biden leads Trump.
Nov 6, 2020 • 4 tweets • 5 min read
UPDATE (10:30pm ET): @SenBobCasey is on CNN saying that @JoeBiden should win #Pennsylvania2020 by ~100K votes. This is consistent with my forecasting models, which are showing a 93K vote margin for #BidenHarris2020 once mail-in ballots have been counted.

#ElectionResults2020 FACT CHECK: @SenBobCasey stated that Biden is winning ~80% of mail-in ballots in Lehigh County. @JoeBiden has won 77.8% of mail-in ballots in Lehigh, so I'm calling this one true.

#CNNElection #PennsylvaniaForBiden
Nov 5, 2020 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
Rebuilt my PA Forecasting model using updated county-level data from PA SOS.

Model forecasts that Biden could win by 185K votes once all of the still-to-be-counted ballots are counted.

#Election2020 #CountEveryVote #Pennsylvania Here's what three different approaches suggest potential outcomes in #pennsylvania. There are more uncounted ballots in counties where registered Democrats have a big number advantage than in counties where GOP voters have any advantage.

Looks good for Biden.

#Election2020
Nov 3, 2020 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
I analysed 3K @PizzaToThePolls orders. Glad to see support for voters in long lines!

But most pies are going to majority-white ZIPs where there tend to be fewer barriers.

Let's not miss anyone! Spread the word!

polls.pizza

@BarackObama @NAACP #BlackLivesMatter Image Here's an interactive dashboard of the data.

Ok, lunch break over. Back to work!

Vote!

datastudio.google.com/s/n0Dx45ZxuUs
Apr 19, 2019 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
1/ McGahn is right that “real lawyer[s]” take notes. This is one of the first lessons of 1L legal practice.

It doesn’t surprise me that @realDonaldTrump lawyers didn’t take notes, especially when he holds up Roy Cohn as an example of a great lawyer. Here’s why... #MuellerReport 2/ Lawyers take notes to create a record and so they can fulfill their clients’ interests—especially when working on multiple matters. Relying on one’s memory is dangerous. Even lawyers need to “refresh their recollection” and having a contemporaneous record is essential.
Apr 18, 2019 • 12 tweets • 7 min read
1/ AG Barr’s assertion that @wikileaks publication is not a crime because it didn’t participate in the hacks is unpersuasive. Wikileaks was aware that the info had been acquired unlawfully, solicited more data, and actively coordinated dumps in furtherance of the criminal purpose 2/ The crimes committed by Russia did not stop once the hack was over. The criminal purpose was to acquire information and distribute it for the purpose of influencing or disrupting the election.