DYK that the recent open letter by Canadian economists on climate policy is not the first one?
We wrote one back in 2008:
1/worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_can…
"One of the few issues on which most economists agree is the need for public policy to protect the environment. Why so much agreement?
2/
Mar 3 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Okay, gather 'round while I try to unpack this chart that many of you have already seen: it suggests that Canadians' standards of living have regressed back to where there were in 2014, and that the trend is alarming. 1/12
All measures of real GDP - or indeed, real *anything* - aim to correct for inflation. The way we do this is to take the dollar amounts and dividing (economists say 'deflating') - by a price index. The choice of a price index *matters*. 2/12
Dec 12, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
English-speaking Canadians should be absolutely furious with the CBC's economics coverage. The CBC figures they can be stupid b/c they think you're stupid too and don't deserve any better.
Look at how they deal with Poilievre's "Housing Hell" video:
1/cbc.ca/news/politics/…
"The Conservative leader's video features statistics, charts and news articles that frame the housing issue as one of the Trudeau government's own making."
That's the full and complete extent of the CBC's analysis. 2/
Nov 1, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Gather 'round while I explain what my distinguished colleague appears to have difficulty understanding, namely, why permanent level effects only have transitory effects on inflation and why the BoC is right to conclude the April carbon tax increase is not a driver of inflation 1/
Suppose we're in a world of zero inflation, and the Consumer Price Index is equal to 100 every month. Yes, I know that's not the world we live in; I'm trying to make the math as simple as possible. 2/11
Jun 14, 2022 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
LPC types telling me that inflation is a global phenomenon and that Canada is doing relatively well from an international standpoint are missing my point.
Okay, partisans are famous for missing the point, but I'll try again.
Yes, there is a global element to the various supply shocks: covid, suppply chain blockages, the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But the Bank of Canada has a mandate to target 2% inflation, not throw up its hands and say "Waddayagonnado?"
Jun 13, 2022 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
Column idea if I were still writing columns: The Liberal budget of 2022 has already given Pierre Poilievre and the CPC a majority in 2025. 1/
Inflation is by far the most important and salient issue on Canadians' minds, and given the slow and stately pace at which the Bank of Canada has chosen to act, the next federal campaign will almost certainly be fought in an environment of high inflation. 2/
Jun 3, 2022 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
Okay, since I have some free time, here are the slides to the talk I just gave. Regular readers will have probably seen most of this already.
Additional commentary is in the alt-text for each image.
Dec 21, 2021 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Okay, so people are talking about how opposition to Bill 21 will fuel support for independance in Quebec, and I don't see how the endgame plays out in this scenario. 1/6
The Yes argument would essentially be "Quebec should be independent so that we can have a free hand to oppress minorities as we see fit." Let's make the (somewhat heroic) assumption that this somehow results in a 'clear majority in support of a clear question'. Then what? 2/6
Dec 11, 2021 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
A thread for ROC pundits on demographics and why Bill 21 is essentially untouchable.
If you're from the ROC, you probably think that Quebec = Montreal, because that's the part you've seen. And Montreal looks like a typical big Canadian city.
1/
I'm going to define Montreal* = the Island of Montreal + Laval. 32.2% of Montreal* residents are immigrants, and 30.9% are visible minorites. This is more than the Canadian average (21.9 and 22.3), but less than Toronto CMA (46.1 and 51.4) or Vancouver (40.8 and 48.9)
2/
Dec 10, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
You know how Bill 21 defenders say how strongly Quebecers support laïcité?
It's bullshit: they don't. Christian holy days are paid vacations for the public sector (even Easter Monday!) and everyone is fine with that.
1/2
And roughly 2/3 of Quebecers were *totally fine* with having a crucifix in the National Assembly.
According the the 2016 census, the population of the Montreal CMA is 23.4% immigrant and 22.6% visible minorities. For Canada as a whole, the numbers are 21.9% and 22.3%, respectively. 2/
Nov 14, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
And so the UdeM Carabins have beaten the ULaval Rouge et or for Quebec university football championship.
There is a very interesting paper just waiting to be written about football in Quebec. 1/
Before 1996, football in Quebec was for the anglo universities: McGill and Bishop's. But then a scion of
a local furniture chain - Jacques Tanguay - decided that he wanted to sponsor a football team here at Université Laval 2/
Okay, this could have *huge* consequences for Canada and in particular, for the Bank of Canada's mandate, which is due for renewal before the end of the year. 1/
nytimes.com/2021/08/06/opi…
"Under [Powell's] guidance, the Fed became the first central bank to adopt a 'makeup' policy, which requires it to correct for past misses in its inflation target."
This is *level* targeting. The BoC's current policy - and mandate - it to 'forgive and forget' past misses.
2/
Aug 11, 2021 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
Thanks to @acoyne for giving the @MaxBellSchool conference on the next Bank of Canada mandate a shout-out
It's an important issue, and one we should be hearing more about from politicians.
A thread about the options: 1/
theglobeandmail.com/opinion/articl…
Our goal was to make these issues as accessible as possible. All the papers and discussions are posted, and you can watch the zoom videos of the presentations and the Q&A sessions. (Those were really good, btw) 2/
Inflation is a monetary phenomenon, and the Bank of Canada controls monetary policy. It has a mandate to target inflation at 2%, with a margin of error of +/- on percentage point. 2/
Mar 21, 2021 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
The binding constraint on the rate of vaccination in Canada right now is supply: provinces are sitting on an inventory of 2-5 days' worth of vaccines.
It's very, vary hard to argue that the provinces could or should push that even lower. 1/
If you haven't already guessed, mass vaccination is a massive administrative undertaking. And in order for the bureaucracy to function properly, it needs to be able to plan on a steady roll-out. 2/
Mar 19, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
You know, I wonder to what extent the CPC's current problems are due to that fact that the Liberals have eaten their lunch when it comes to economics.
I mean, it wasn't so long ago that someone who thought that free trade was a good thing or that increasing corporate taxes was at best a problematic thing had only one choice: the Conservatives. 2/
Jul 27, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
I'll be writing this all up in the context of a forthcoming paper, but since the charts are ready, I'll post them now without comment for the benefit of the sort of people who are tuned into Sunday Night Twitter. 1/
Personal income tax revenues in OECD countries, as a share of GDP and as a share of the total: 2/
May 21, 2020 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
A thread that would have been a column, if I were still writing columns:
Recessions have always been about men. Men have always borne the brunt of job losses, and male-dominated industries are the focus of standard stimulus packages. 1/
And the economics field that informs discussion about how to react to recessions - macroeconomics - is more heavily represented by men than pretty much every other specialty.
Maybe this follows from the first point; I don't know. 2/
