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Steve Schale Profile picture
Steve Schale
@steveschale
#FloridaMan Political Hack 4x POTUS vet ('08/'12/'20/‘24). Passions: @acypl @driveftf @EpilepsyAFLA. Long suffering Jaguars fan. #DUUUVAL
Oct 10 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
So here is good example of why Q is hard to take seriously. In MI, they show a 9 point shift in the race in 3 weeks.

In both polls, the nominees get 95+ of their own party.

NPA shifted from +2 one way to +4 the other (a change within the margin of error for that cell) 1/ What changes is their vote model. They don't tie their model to any assumption - their party ID floats from poll to poll - showing movement that doesn't exist.

this is the crap they would do in FL that would lead to wild swings that aren't actually happening. 2/
Jan 17, 2022 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
On this MLK Day, it’s worth remembering Dr King’s time in Florida, specifically, St Augustine - the town I grew up in.

It’s worth noting, I didn’t learn Dr. King had spent time in my hometown until I went to college…in 1992…in Tennessee. 🧵 St Augustine was founded in 1565, and King’s goal in the summer of 1964 was to integrate the town prior to the celebration of our 400th anniversary. He’d been encouraged by locals to make St Augustine a new front in the battle for civil rights. 2/
Aug 12, 2021 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Couple Florida census notes 🧵

Top 10 FL counties make up 60.7% of FL residents, down from 61.1%.

Dade 2,701,767
Broward: 1,944,375
Palm Beach: 1,492,191
Hillsborough: 1,459,762
Orange: 1,429,908
DUUUUVAL: 995,567
Pinellas: 959,107
Lee: 760,822
Polk: 725,046
Brevard: 606,612 Other than Duuuuuval supplanting Pinellas for 6, the top ten remain unchanged from 2010.

Biggest mover: Osceola up 6 spots from 22nd largest county to 16.

50 counties added population. 17 lost.

Largest raw population change: Orange +228,952

Biggest decrease: Gadsden -2,563
Sep 1, 2020 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Ok folks, huddle up.

We are going to do this 1 more time

Why Biden winning Florida blunts this ->

1. Last Republican to go to WH without FL was Calvin Coolidge

2. Florida results - with rare exception - will be counted/published on Election Night

Let’s walk through it. 1/ In 24 days - Florida will begin mailing out vote by mail ballots

People will get them, and start returning them - with two stamps to be safe.

The Governor issued an order in June allowing counties to begin canvassing those ballots 22 days out
Aug 20, 2020 • 77 tweets • 21 min read
75 days.

One more speech.

And one guardian angel. Image 74 days. Image
Aug 15, 2020 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Dear Democrats - and particularly Florida Democrats, can you pull up a chair for a second? We need to have a little chat about voting, and specifically vote by mail ballots.

1/ I understand everyone's concerns about this election, especially given Trump's admissions regarding the USPS. Yes we should raise Hell. Yes we should push Congress to step in. Yes we should double down on voter protection efforts. But what we can't do: play into their game 2/
Feb 25, 2019 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
A thread about my pup.

When we got him, he was just a goofy 5 month old pup at the shelter. I heard someone else mention they were interested in “Mason” - so I cut in line to get him first. They think he had been born stray. When he came home, he would eat 4-5x a day. He seemed like the sweetest dog on the planet. He’d curl up on floor next to you — but turns out he wasn’t just sweet - he was really sick. An injured eye, worms, you name it, he had it. Stray puppy life has taken a toll.