“Who are the best people to follow for special situations ideas?”
In this thread, I will share my answer:
@AsifSuria
I’ve followed Asif for many years. His focus is insider trading and merger arbitrage, and he is excellent at both specialties.
Merger arbitrage is a category of special situation investing that I find tricky. I tend to gravitate to the high spread deals, but following Asif and reading his book has helped me improve my hit rate.
Here is a great example of one of Asif’s calls (JWN was ultimately taken private for $24.25).
Mar 27 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
Peter Lynch famously loved spin-offs with insider buying.
Today, there are 4 spin-offs with interesting insider activity.
Let's go in alphabetical order:
$AMTM
On September 27th, Jacobs spun off its Critical Mission Solutions and Cyber & Intelligence businesses. The spun off divisions merged with PE backed Amentum, and the new company kept the Amentum name.
Amentum performed well in initial trading, but has since traded down on concerns related to the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Aug 15, 2024 • 20 tweets • 5 min read
Peter Lynch famously loved spin-offs with insider buying.
Today, there are 3 spin-offs with interesting insider activity.
Let's go in alphabetical order:
Enhabit ($EHAB)
Insiders have been buying for a long time.
But the stock has been a disaster.
Jun 20, 2024 • 24 tweets • 7 min read
There’s a lot going on in the spin-off world….
This thread will get you caught up:
RECENT ANNOUNCED SPIN-OFF:
In May, $DD announced that it plans to break up into 3 public companies:
1) New DuPont 2) Electronics 3) Water
The transaction is expected to take 18 to 24 months to be completed.
Feb 16, 2024 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Anyone an expert in index reconstitution and want to collaborate?
Here's my theory...
$GTX is going to be a massive beneficiary of passive index flows.
Here's my logic:
$PHIN, a company in the same sub industry as $GTX has 32% of shares held by passive investors (Vanguard, State Blackrock, etc).
$GTX has 2.6% of shares held by passive investors.
Why the difference?
Oct 21, 2023 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
I’m a small investor, and it’s sometimes hard to get in touch with management or investor relations.
Today, I’m going to walk through the specific tactics that I use to get in touch with management/IR:
I love talking to investor relations / management.
Why?
A couple reasons: 1) It helps me confirm the facts. 2) It helps me get up to speed on a company faster. 3) It allows me to “feel” whether insiders are excited or not about their stock.
Jul 2, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Koyfin has become my favorite investing tool.
Here’s how I use it:
When I’m getting up to speed on a new company, my favorite tab is Snapshot:Overview:
At a glance, it shows you
- NTM and LTM valuation
- Consensus expectations
- A nice chart
- Recent news
Jun 25, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Great write-up from @ClarkinM this week on $MGTA.
It’s a biotech liquidation.
Here’s the quick pitch:
On May 3, $MGTA announced a reverse merger with Dianthus Therapeutics.
The stock closed down 14%.
Why?
Investors had been hoping for a liquidation.
Per the current deal, legacy $MGTA shareholders will get no cash.
Instead they will own 21.3% of the new company.
May 26, 2023 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
Joel Greenblatt was recently interviewed on the Investor’s Chronicles podcast.
At the end of the interview, the host asked whether Greenblatt still likes spin-offs.
Here’s what he said:
"My first book I wrote is called, “You Can Be a Stock Market Spin-off” and about 40% or 50% of it was about spin-offs.
The questions is why.
I’m writing another book and the example I use to describe spin-offs is the following"
Mar 18, 2023 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Warren Buffett has a strange approach to spin-offs.
He's made a lot of money investing in them.
But he would never spin off a Berkshire subsidiary.
This thread will explain why:
First, let's explore Buffett's spin-off investments.
From 1957 to 1969, Buffett investment partnership compounded at 29.5% annually.
Here’s what I was thinking at the time 👇
When first spun-off in May of 2019, I wrote: 1. “The business is surprisingly defensive. In the Great Financial Crisis, revenue only declined 11%. Cash flow actually grew. The current payout ratio of 65% implies management has high confidence in the resilience of the business.”
May 21, 2022 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
Seth Klarman annualized a 17% net return over more than three decades.
That outstanding performance made him a famous person in the Value Investing Community.
Today he turns 65 years old, an excellent opportunity to look closer at his investment secrets👇🏼 1. Be Lonely
Klarman was an expert in investing where no one else would.
Whether geographic, industry-wise, in special situations, or unpopular companies, Klarman always was where no one else wanted to be.
This is the “easy” and most effective way to outperform.
May 17, 2022 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Joel Greenblatt says a call option is similar to owning 100 shares of a stock and 1 put on that stock (1 put has 100 shares).
Once I understood this, it made valuing LEAPS easy 👇
100 shares of a stock and 1 put is almost the same as owning a call option. Say you have a call option and the hypothetical strike price is $50. If you wanted to create that call option you could buy 100 shares a put with a $50 strike…
May 14, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
William Green lately interviewed Joel Greenblatt for his new Podcast Series.
It was a fantastic talk and Greenblatt gave many interesting insights into his investment Philosophy
Here they are👇🏼 1. Simplify
Investing, like many other things, is a complex subject.
Greenblatt always strives to simplify such processes.
He breaks them down into the most essential parts and focuses on them.
He doesn’t look for the perfect way but for a simple one that works consistently.
