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Strategic Analyst. Veteran. Contrarian. Conflict. Capital Markets. Complex Systems. Continuance of Civilization. Always read the source material.
May 22 6 tweets 10 min read
Pole Shift Conference: Observations from the Field - #3

In the lead up to the Pole Shift conference, the framing on X was pure theater. Penrose Colorado would be the long awaited proving grounds for a scientific cage match between the two most prominent catastrophism theorists in a generation. Two models, two heretics, one stage, one weekend and by Monday morning, an emergent victor.

The truth, as is so often the case with serious work, was considerably more involved. It required both men to wrestle with evidence brought by their opponent that cannot easily be ignored. Owing to the caliber of intellectual inquiry on display, neither participant, would be accused of employing the academy's favorite tactic, the one built around willful ignorance of the inconvenient.

Bear with me, because to land the third observation I need to walk through both models in enough mechanistic detail that the gear deploys successfully.

* This entire thread was written based on statements made and arguments furthered during each mans relevant presentation. It is obviously nowhere near the complete picture for either perspective, but I have attempted to remain concise and gracious to both. If anything is inaccurate, my hastily taken notes looked like hieroglyphs by the end, I apologize and will gladly correct.

** This is the third thread in a series examining the first Pole Shift Conference, a five day gathering held in Penrose, Colorado this May, headlined by Ben Davidson (@SunWeatherMan) and Roger Cunningham (@EthicalSkeptic). Thread one, on the speakers themselves, here: x.com/stratdepth/sta… Thread two, on the attendees, here: x.com/stratdepth/sta….Image Ben’s "Micronova Hypothesis" starts with the Sun. Stars burn down a potential energy decay curve, hydrogen to helium to heavier elements until they hit iron. Our Sun is too small to nova in the textbook sense, the Chandrasekhar limit requires 1.4 solar masses and we have nowhere near that, but Ben argues we suffer from a different problem, which is that helium-4 is fusion ash. The Sun can transmute everything else down to iron, but the helium-4 just accumulates in bands at roughly 40% and 80% out from the core, like cholesterol in the arteries of a star. Eventually the pressure becomes unsustainable, and the Sun must erupt.

That hypercoronal mass ejection (Bens term “micronova” still triggers the astrophysics priesthood for reasons that are arguably somewhat justified, but mostly tribal scumbaggery) delivers an energy pulse large enough that, when it slams into the olivine-rich, magnetite-laden layer beneath Earth’s crust, it induces a Faraday current. That current unlocks the crust from the mantle. The crust slides, free of its magnetic constraint, under the impulse. The world reorients. Davidson argues that the micronova is a cyclical event, occurring roughly every 12 thousand years. He extends the conclusions made by Channell & Vigliotti in a 2019 article in Reviews of Geophysics to argue that the side facing the sun when the micronova occurs, and therefore experiencing the harshest blow of solar radiation, rotates in sequential order, by event, around the planet continent by continent. Last round, the Americas took it directly in the balls. Warming up in the bullpen for the next go-around: somewhere between Japan and New Zealand.On August 31, 2012, a 200,000-mile-long filament that had been quietly hovering in the Sun's corona collapsed and ejected itself into the solar system at 900 miles per second. It missed Earth, brushing the magnetosphere only enough to produce auroras three nights later. Davidson's hypothesis concerns events roughly a thousand times this energetic, striking Earth directly rather than glancing past. Image: NASA/GSFC/SDO