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Sunchartist Profile picture
Sunchartist
@sunchartist
Love - Macro & technical analysis, geopolitics, travel, foodie. Once upon a time, I wrote a Blog, Gordian Knot. Not a CMT®
3 subscribers
Apr 19 • 28 tweets • 8 min read
Oil: Pricing a Recession

Recession & geopolitical risks, volatile tariffs policy present challenges to Oil.
This note will focus on technical analysis & price structure after the USA Liberation Day events, overlooking these risks.
1/n USA Economic Policy Uncertainty Index at All-Time High

Economic Policy Uncertainty at an all-time high certainly supports a negative oil and gas outlook. However, a possible view is that the risk may be priced in.

2/n Image
Oct 30, 2024 • 25 tweets • 7 min read
If I am wrong on the UK 30-year Yields we see 5.23% (October 2023 highs)
If the TA is correct base case is 6.03%.
Bear case 7.20%

However I see curve flattening first.

It is fine to laugh at these outrageous takes. The UK 30-year yields have exceeded the physiological threshold of 5%. The next notable resistance level is positioned at 5.09%.
We will enter a phase of significant upside uncertainty if the yields surpass this level. Image
Nov 25, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Bob Farrell's 10 Rules
9) When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else will happen. Image
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Image If i missed others please fell free to add in replies