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Sunder Katwala Profile picture
Sunder Katwala
@sundersays
Director @britishfuture. Author of How to be a Patriot https://t.co/2mVuOhKhxi @HarperNorthUK New: Culture Clash https://t.co/ukFtFRfj3r
Dame Chris🌟🇺🇦😷 #RejoinEU #FBPE #GTTO🔶️ Profile picture Hugh Sainsbury #FBPE @HughSainsbury@mastodon.green Profile picture Gary Gibbon Profile picture mark crompton Profile picture Ria Stochel Profile picture 6 subscribed
Apr 17 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
There is a persistent pattern of CCHQ/government investigations burying very serious issues (including credible allegations of criminality) until they act rapidly, after exposure in the media, months after knowing the content Peter Bone: party did not investigate for 5 years
Apr 11 • 16 tweets • 6 min read
Spoke to Guardian about this. My view is politics of dealignment have been v successful for Labour - advancing most where weaker - & & time for a change will hold most core votes too. Bigger challenge to come in trying to retain that coalition in power theguardian.com/politics/2024/… Excellent visualisation by @Dylan_Difford of Labour's advances 2019-24 Image
Apr 7 • 49 tweets • 15 min read
Sunday Telegraph news report on a poll of British Muslim attitudes, with comments from Fiyaz Mughal responding to it. This survey found that 4/10 Muslim respondents say Hamas did not commit atrocities on October 7th. Thread on these findings follows.
telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/04/0… The poll results are published here by JL Partners. It was conducted for the Henry Jackson Society. (HJS don't seem to have published a report; there is nothing I could find on their website or socials beyond media reports/press releaase)
jlpartners.com/polling-results
Mar 23 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Interesting report on the nuances of public views of equality and diversity. While there is general support in principle, this research suggest a number of ways that could broaden/sustain support, defuse polarisation & above all put more focus into things that are effective. 6/10 people think equality/diversity a good thing, five times more than bad thing

But almost a quarter of people (3/10 men and 1/6 women) worry could be bad for "people like me". Majorities of black & Asian respondents (3-1) think its good for them. White split is 39-24 Image
Mar 21 • 35 tweets • 17 min read
I think @TiceRichard will surely need to drop Mr Beau Dade as a Reform parliamentary candidate by tonight after Tice's interview yesterday about the Conservatives being too slow in taking 2 days to call Frank Hester racist "Standing by every word" of advocating the forcible deportation of all legal migrants over the last 25 years (imagining "whole families crying and shrieking" as a necessary step ) is a very obvious open and shut case of extremism and racism for @TiceRichard re @HistoryBro1
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Mar 17 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Martin Sellner of Generation Identity, banned from the UK for being an extremist danger, gets sympathy from Elon Musk for being impeded from making the case for "remigration" (the removal of migrants and ethnic minorities to reverse demographic changes) Image Who is Martin Sellner & why banned from UK & US?
- promotes Great Replacement & ethnic minority "remigration"
- received $ donation from the Christchurch killer
- daubed swastika on synagogue in 2003 to protest for David Irving's right to deny Holocaust
Mar 2 • 14 tweets • 6 min read
James has requested examples of far right groups causing violence or disturbances in the UK in specific places. This thread will treat that as a good faith request for examples. 1) Barrow: Patriotic Alternative1 and Tommy Robinson were among those who stirred up tensions - leading to violence against Indian restaurants and others - after these fabricated claims about grooming & violence caused significant tensions.
telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/01/0…
Jan 19 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
Telegraph headline suggests a new policy is being introduced. It dates to 2005. May/Johnson governments reviewed it from 2018-21 & decided to keep the rules. Can apply for right to work, if case not heard after 12 months, in limited shortage jobs. Image Indeed the Telegraph report gives the figures from 2022. It notes that asylum seekers forego state payments for what they earn & contribute to accommodation costs.
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Nov 15, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
"Leave the ECHR" is something of a red herring, if the Supreme Court agrees with the Court of Appeal.

Remember it said: this type of scheme is lawful in principle, as long as the "safe third country" is safe, but that systemic flaws in the Rwandan asylum system made it unsafe Leaving ECHR could be one way to make deals with countries UK courts would find unsafe now. But there is no barrier from being in the ECHR to deals with safe third countries. None of the £140 million the UK sent to Rwanda was spent on basic training of asylum decision-makers!
Nov 4, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Mr Douglas Murray is just making things up here when he claims that "millions of illegal settlers in Britain" came to the UK, 1997-2010.

He seems increasingly committed to making directly false claims, that play to a particular audience. Image Recent estimates of the irregular population without legal status are 674k and 800k - 1.2 million. (It is estimated that about one third (36%) of these have been here > 10 years, which is the period Murray is talking about. See Migration Observatory
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/brie…
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Oct 5, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
The 17 and 16 year old (who would be able to legally smoke at 18) support this policy, while the 14 year old (who never will) doesn't care either way Image "I reckon if I did want to smoke in my thirties or forties, it wouldn't be that difficult" says S, 14. He doesn't know if he will want to or not. Or whether he would ask his brother to get them if he did
Sep 2, 2023 • 41 tweets • 13 min read
Voting has begun in National Trust elections, closing on November 3rd, ahead of Nov 11th AGM.

In the ballpark of 125k members have participated, out of the 5 million strong membership.

The candidates can be found in the booklet sent to members.
nationaltrust.org.uk/who-we-are/ann… Pressure group Restore Trust have changed strategy, proposing more mainstream/moderate voices of a higher quality (Sumption, Gimson),

Ditched Stephen Green of Christian Voice, who vociferously objects to NT engagement with Pride. Nominated him in 2021 & 2022. (Does run again) Image
Aug 5, 2023 • 24 tweets • 7 min read
Dowden says Royal Assent of the Illegal Migration bill will mean "those who come to the UK illegally will not be able to stay"

Royal Assent, July 20th 2023.

Did you know the Government has quietly decided NOT to give legal force to the new legal duties in the new act? Image Explainer: most of the key provisions of the Act have not been given legal force. The government seems to have no plans to give them legal force for at least 3 months (while it finds out what the Supreme Court decides about Rwanda in October/November)
.freemovement.org.uk/the-illegal-mi…
Jul 20, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The Act will fail, practically, by next week.
Once 300 people arrive, exceeds govt's annual capacity to remove.

So it then falls over in law.

Will UK courts uphold making people "permanently* inadmissable for asylum, in the cases where gvt has no realistic prospect to remove)? I can't find anybody serious who thinks permanent inadmissability proposal - the core deterrence proposal - could be lawful for cases where there isn't a legal version of Rwanda

(Supporters of the bill mainly say this will show we need to leave the ECHR next, then try again) Image
Jul 1, 2023 • 23 tweets • 8 min read
After six months, Ipso has found the grounds on which it can say that this indefensibly sexist article (long withdrawn in shame by its author) could also be said to break an Editors Code which (by design) has v few prohibitions on sexist or racist speech bbc.co.uk/news/entertain… The Editors Code would not prohibit anything that Goebbels published about the Jews **as a group**. If he moved from "the Jews are rats who must all be eradicated" (not covered) to an individual attack on Mrs Jewish person, there could be a breach.

This is a deliberste choice
Jun 30, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
This sounds crackers politically, except as core vote defence. The public is not gagging for more referendums & it wouldn't happen (as Cons won't be re-elected) and this time the proposal splits the Cons MPs and the Cons vote, while it unites Lab, LDs much more Pick an issue where 55% of your voters agree, but under 30% of the public. But your swing/contingent voters agree with the LibDems on this. And your MPs are split pretty evenly.
May 11, 2023 • 43 tweets • 17 min read
Govt is likely to announce record levels of net migration (in a fortnight). Why?

(1) 2022 net migration exceptionally high for exceptional reasons.
Especially Ukraine.

So will be lower in 2023 than 2022

(2) Johnson govt deliberately relaxed non-EU migration policy, 2019-22 173,500 Ukranians arrived between March and May 2022.

174k Ukranians coming to UK clearly the single main reason net migration to June 2022 was 500k, not closer to 250k (which was new "normal" level of net migration pre-pandemic to 2019 & post-pandemic)
gov.uk/government/pub…
May 11, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
LabourList has a 86 page Labour Party draft policy handbook that has gone to National Policy Forum members, as part of the process towards the party's decisions on its 2024 manifesto.
labourlist.org/2023/05/labour… Migration for work is the final section of the economy section ['better jobs and better work'] Image
May 11, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
A fundamental weakness of this Times leader is that the bill it is supporting fails its "real world" test. It says efficacy of threat to deter is a "gamble". It A generous appraisal of a law/policy guaranteed to fail what is being promised on detain/remove thetimes.co.uk/article/the-ti… This 2023 bill isn't a "short term fix" any more than the 2022 bill was. It's the politics of looking busy. In practice, it just adds new layers of delay, cost and chaos, permanent in limbo inadmissibility, barge stunts, even making some current returns deals eg India inoperable
May 10, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The Conservative challenge for a *majority* is to fight a defensive election across UK fought across five or maybe six pretty different political fronts (Red Wall, Blue Wall (Con/LD and South v Lab), Scotland, London, Wales) while keeping aggregate losses to 30 seats. It is fatal for the Conservatives if they lose 15 to the LibDems. Some risk of losing half a dozen in each of Wales, Scotland & London

If they could avoid all of that, they probably just need to strongly outpoll Labour (by maybe 4-5 points?) to stay in the hunt for a majority
May 10, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The argument that there is broad public support for the government on asylum is spin. No poll in a whole year has yet had majority support for Rwanda, nor majority opposition. There is opposition to blanket inadmissibility. There was no manifesto commitment to do this There is shaky knowledge of what the policy is. Many people think only refused claims go to Rwanda, or valid claims come back. It is the blanket inadmissibility - even if claim would be granted - that has support much closer to a third supporting it than to over half