Founder of Focused Objective and https://t.co/oJmdz4RPHs. Training, and tools for Agile forecasting and metrics. Helping organizations manage flow in a complex world.
Nov 8, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Thread: “Predictability” is the most common leadership request I get. What is meant by that request varies widely. I first need to get companies to decide what “Predictability” they want, but I have a strong preference for “get what you need to do, done”
The first assumption is that teams can’t forecast. I sell forecast training, so this is a profitable request, but it is the WRONG one. Individual teams can’t be predictable in a chaotic, overstressed system.
May 31, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Common forecasting using data myth 1
All items have to be similarly sized.
No, the distribution of sizes needs to be somewhat stable. You can use data delivering all "tiny's" to forecasting delivering all "x-larges" obviously!
Common forecasting using data myth 2
Size is a proxy for cycle time.
No, it's a (loose) proxy for hands-on development time excluding delays, blockers, and external factors. Size more relates to whether historical data is relevant, blockers and dependencies dictate cycle-time.
Jan 18, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
After having a Twitter message convo with @dominicad on prioritization and "saying no," I want to share a few thoughts. So, here is a thread - TLDR; Prioritization is (also) about knowing why the highest priority CAN'T be done.
1/ AFTER the YES'S have been decided, there is a need to decide out of those "YES" what order do we start them. I pick the top 3 candidates and get them positioned on this trilemma. The goal is to find reasons for and against starting being successful against its peer options.
Aug 12, 2019 • 11 tweets • 1 min read
Dependencies. My top 10 ways to improve the flow of work between teams.
Love your thoughts and better ideas.
(thread 1 / 11)
1.Higher priority “things” started by teams before lower priority things unless a really good reason. (thread 2 / 11)
Apr 24, 2019 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Forecasting is often made more complex than it needs to be. Given your alternatives are guessing (or hoping), even a simple model will perform better. Here is my thinking process 1/
My first goal is to get a baseline that real (future) data an prove the forecast is reliable. Until then, I hide the most recent periods of data and see how my model would have performed using data from the period before that. 2/
