Trump and Iran is the most relevant question today. Trump's cabinet would be full of Iran hawks. Three things would influence his actions
a. Iran Hawks in his Admin
b. Iran alleged involvement in his assassination plot
c. Vision for middle-east [Axis and Normalization]
-1/n The indirect talks between Tehran and Washington were already called off last week. Trump admin will come with the policy of 'Maximum pressure' on Iran. Diplomatic manoeuvring would be limited. So what option does Iran have in an environment of regional escalation and
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Sinwar [Thread]
Decapitation doesn't work with networked organizations such as Hamas. The majority are children of the camps [Refugees]. Even after decades of imprisonment, Sinwar opted for resistance instead of a different comfortable life. Even though Israel has
-1/n Finally achieved one of its main objectives; the assassination of Yahya Sinwar, the brain behind the biggest disaster in the history of Israel. But this has induced a new dilemma. For months, Israel propagated that Sinwar is hiding in tunnels while keeping Hostages as
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Iranian retaliation
[Intial analysis]
Iranian response was different in magnitude, scope, and quality than April [True Promise]. Less warning time, no use of drones or cruise missiles, and use of the latest missiles, including Hypersonic Fatah, instead of decades old.
-1/n This means Iran meant real business; objective was not only demonstration of power but also impact. Unlike the previous attacks. That's why targets were all high-end, including the Nevatim. Delivering the message that nothing is safe, so don't think of retaliation.
-2/n

Hezbollah's response [Thread]
Hezbollah's response to assassination of Fuad Shukr mirrors Iranian true promise operation, where the goal was demonstration of offensive capabilities rather than carrying out a high impact strike. In the normal circumstances, this could have
-1/n Helped established deterence, but since it was unfolding in a volatile regional environment, it was not well received, especially when Israel considered it in relation to the existential war it is waging. Initially, Israel delivered the signal through Isfahan.
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Sinwar as Head of Hamas Political Bureau [Thread]
The appointment of Sinwar as head of political bureau, after the assassination of Haniyeh, might be surprising for many, but it is a strategic decision based on the security and political realities of the region and beyond. -1/n When Hamas planned Al-Aqsa Flood (Oct 7), it knew it was a strategic manoeuvre having serious long-term implications, and there would be no coming back afterwards. One implication was the end of rapprochement with West and Gulf via the political bureau.
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For defeatists & pacifists (Engineer Co) it's not the lack of understanding about changing realities but optimism for Status Quo.
How I am reading the strategy is quite obvious; this current Israeli structure with this ontological paradox can't exist for more than 5 years. -1/n

https://twitter.com/talhaahmad967/status/1775717749534150928

However, it's difficult to elaborate in layman's terms how psychological, tactical, political and socio-economic factors are adding to the strategic chessboard and the ongoing war for the last half a year is enough to predict the end game, keeping the current factors as
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Gaza was a triggering point of global conflicts. Regional dynamics are rapidly changing. Soon, Pakistan has to make strategic decisions. These decisions will have serious long-term implications for its future, not just as a state but where it fits into the emerging order.
-1/n Both at the regional and Global level. Strategic depth has collapsed, and challenges from traditional to non-traditional security are eating up the foundations. Hopes are dwindling and unprecedented paralysis across state functionaries is staggering.
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Summary Iran's attack on Israel [Thread]
Earlier, I wrote about the scope of upcoming possible retaliation and the options Iran has in terms of its arsenal. Now let's analyze the overall retaliation (operation) and strategic and tactical gains if any. -1/n - Firstly, considering the distance between the two; an element of surprise would always be rare in wartime/hostile regional environments. So it's important to keep in mind that Iran carried out an attack when Israel was on full alert. -2/n

Israel and Haniyeh [Thread]
The composure of Haniyeh tells a very overarching story. The grandchildren aged 10, 8, and 4 were killed on Eid while meeting with relatives in Shati camp. Israel's brutality does not deter hamas. In fact, it empowers and motivates them.
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https://twitter.com/talhaahmad967/status/1778133273350152370

This is not the first time Israel has targeted the families of hamas leaders. The problem is that Israel is still occupied with thought that it can force Palestinians into subjugation with sheer military brutality. It didn't worked and it will never work.
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Red Heifer, Third Temple and Al-Aqsa [Thread]

Red Heifer, Third Temple and Messiah are three different topics though interconnected but are different when it comes to the application of theology from Judaism and Jewish eschatological perspective.
-1/n Before getting into details people need to understand Judaism and Zionism are two different things. Judaism is a religion whereas Zionism is a political ideology. Many sects of Jews even oppose the establishment of Israel let alone the political application of Text. -2/n

Since most of the debates about politics fail to go beyond the surface-level conversation. I’ll just try to address a very critical aspect of these elections. For years the civil-military relation has been the force behind the political instability in the country. -1/n Military bureaucracy has always tried to politicize national security for its political ambitions. This not only undermines the public's trust in the institutions but also is detrimental to the forces' morale. Nevertheless, this practice has a history
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Ceasefire [Thread]
The ongoing negotiations for a ceasefire are not like the previous ones. Almost dozens of countries, high officials have been communicating for days. There is across-the-board consensus that Hamas can't be defeated militarily and it won't surrender -1/n Since the far-right-dominated Israeli govt would reject every long-term solution as long as the war is ongoing, so the first step towards a long-term solution is end of war which is only possible through immediate ceasefire & release of hostages through negotiations -2/n

I avoided commenting on any other subject, especially local affairs, as I only wanted to focus on Gaza. But how the events are unfolding, let me share a few thoughts. I am not shocked at how affairs are being managed because these are being managed more or less the -1/n Same way for the last 7 decades. What lies at the centre is egoism, institutional failure, unsustainable, ill-thought policies driven by personal interests and lack of accountability for all of the above. -2/n

There is a sense of betrayal in Islamabad over the Iranian missile Strikes in Baluchistan, Pakistan. Strategically Pakistan has always supported Iran against global powers and is the only country in the region to oppose & diplomatically lobby against US sanctions -1/n against Iran considering it as "collective Punishment". Similarly, it has always opposed the invasion of Iran. The mistrust between Iran and Pakistan regarding counter-terrorism has led to serious provocations. -2/n

Red Sea Blockade and Operation Prosperity Guardian [Thread]
Israel’s brutal war on Gaza followed by tension in the region, particularly in Red Sea has created a security dilemma for the US. On one hand, US wants to avoid the expansion of the conflict into a regional war -1/n on the other hand, Houthis/ Ansarallah attacks on Israeli-linked ships pose a threat to the US's role as a Global & regional maritime security guarantor.
US initially announced an expansion of CTF-153 -2/n

Israel released this video of a resistance fighter being targeted, he curled up on himself and prostrated himself on the ground in his final moments.
This shows two different approaches reflecting two different ideologies. -1/n Israel's whole narrative is centred around domination of its military might while Qassam's is about resilience and courage against that military might. The goal of the video was to portray it as some sort of 'humiliation' but it's quite the opposite for the other side which -2/n

Golani Brigade [Thread]
IDF withdraws the Golani Brigade from Gaza after suffering heavy. Golani Brigade is considered the best brigade, it fought in all of Israel's wars and almost all of its major operations including Cast Lead. Interestingly this came when it was engaged -1/n is the most intense and critical battle on the front lines especially in the Shuja’iya neighbourhood.
Just Last Week, IDF announced the death of two Senior officers from the Golani Brigade after a failed attempt to rescue injured troops in the Shejaiya area. -2/n

Many are not following the details. The Joint Operation Room has been fully activated in the last couple of days. This means all groups from Marxist-Leninist PFLP to Islamist Mujahideen Brigades are now fully engaged in all axes in Gaza. Previously, they were -1/n carrying out limited attacks but are now regularly attacking IDF. This likely means war has entered the third phase. From the tactical perspective, these groups don't have a significant missile arsenal like Al-Qassam but since Israel has expanded the war and has invaded -2/n

Israel has deployed the 98th Division to Southern Gaza, this includes paratrooper forces, Commando Brigade and an elite artillery regiment. This means IDF for the first time has deployed 4 divisions to the Gaza Strip (98th 162nd, 36th, and 252nd divisions). The theater-1/n of war is expanding. It has the "Oz" Brigade, which has dedicated CT, guerilla warfare, and Reconnaissance units. The deployment of Special forces means Israel wants to move more swiftly this time in the south Particularly Khan Yunis and wants to minimize the casualties as -2/n

I was looking into why Israel refused to negotiate for prisoners though the obvious reason is rage as 7th October was deadliest day in the history of Israel. Had they negotiated earlier dozens of prisoners could have survived. Interestingly I found a very relevant story. -1/n on 27 June 1976, the Palestine Liberation Front hijacked a plane of Air France travelling from Tel Aviv to Paris during a stopover in Athens. The flight was diverted to first Libya and then to Uganda, where it landed at Entebbe airport. -2/n

IDF Debunked [Thread]
Just like the previous propaganda video, this one has a lot of flaws and loops. It seems in a hurry got caught once again. Let's go through the video starting with the CCTV camera. -1/n

https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1724869758451888258

- Why does Hamas need to put tapes on the cameras when they can control every camera through the security room?
- Infact these cameras could record the IDF storming the hospital which would help them bring credible evidence against IDF.
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