The MYTH of Ukrainian nuclear weapons

After the collapse of the USSR in December 1991, four independent republics emerged on whose territory Soviet nuclear weapons were located: Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus.

Operational command and control functions for the Soviet strategic nuclear forces were concentrated in Moscow and until May 1992, the Ukrainian nuclear arsenals remained under the command of Yevgeny Shaposhnikov, first as the Soviet Minister of Defense and later as the Commander-in-Chief of the Joint Armed Forces of the CIS.

The Ukrainian government did not have the launch codes for strategic missiles.

According to the first president of Ukraine, Leonid Kravchuk, the nuclear warheads deployed on Ukrainian territory were manufactured on Russian territory and were to be returned for disposal upon expiration of their shelf life by 1997.

The Soviet nuclear weapons infrastructure was extremely expensive - Kravchuk estimated the cost of one silo launcher at US$1 billion in 2021 and the entire system at US$200 billion.

Building the necessary new facilities in Ukraine just to produce and maintain the system would have cost another US$65 billion.

The system was also technologically complex, including satellites and space tracking stations.

Many specialists - officers of the Strategic Missile Forces quit and moved to Russia, making it difficult to find replacements.

According to Kravchuk, Ukraine, which did not want to be "held hostage", and the United States, whose territory the missiles were aimed at, were all interested in transferring strategic nuclear weapons to Russia, as was Russia itself, for which this was a matter of strategic security - other countries, having studied the warheads, could gain knowledge about the entire defense system of the USSR and as a consequence - Russia.

The decision to export tactical nuclear munitions to Russia - a relatively mobile part of the nuclear arsenal - was made shortly after the signing of the Belovezh Accords in the form of the "Agreement on Joint Measures Regarding Nuclear Weapons" signed in Alma-Ata on December 21, 1991.

Already in the spring of 1992, all tactical nuclear weapons from the territory of the former USSR were removed to Russia.

The fate of strategic nuclear weapons was decided within the framework of the signing in May 1992 by Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Belarus and the United States of an additional agreement to the START-1 Treaty, known as the Lisbon Protocol.

The protocol stipulated that Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine are the legal successors of the USSR to the terms of the START-1 Treaty.

The protocol also stipulated the obligations of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine to get rid of nuclear weapons as soon as possible and to join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as states that do not possess nuclear weapons.

Long before the Budapest Memorandum it was decided by all sides involved that the Soviet Russian nuclear warheads which were all manufactured in Russian SFSR should be transfered to independent Russia as the successor of Russian SFSR while Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine where these warheads were stationed would become non-nuclear weapon states.

In short the only thing that made the nuclear weapons in Soviet Ukraine - Ukrainian was the fact that the territory was a part of a powerful state which manufactured these missiles and stationed them in the territories of 3 of its republics as well as Russian SFSR itself.

Neither did Ukraine manufacture the warheads, nor did it ever have the control over them, they were also set to expire in several years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and had to be returned to Russia for disposal. Among the things mentioned in the post above there was also agreement from 11.04.92 between the Russian Federation and Ukraine on the procedure for the transfer of nuclear weapons from the territory of Ukraine to the central pre-factory bases of the Russian Federation for the purpose of their dismantling and destruction, signed by both presidents.

Over 2 years prior, before the Budapest Memorandum that was signed on 05.12.94 which Ukraine brings up constantly without mentioning the many previous agreements.

zakon.rada.gov.ua/cgi-bin/laws/m…

If Ukraine and NATO expected Putin to panic with the invasion of Kursk region they didn't get the desired results.

While the invasion is unpleasant, Russia will not weaken Zaporozhye direction understanding this is where NATO wants Ukraine to attack like 2023. Soon enough within next few weeks Ukraine and NATO will have to decide whether they still want to attempt to capture the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant and advance deeper into Zaporozhye region despite Russia not taking the bait in Kursk and taking its time to repel the enemy.

Biden administration is in full panic mode.

They've believed Zelensky and Budanov got the message on 7th March when the US basically told them to cancel the planned terrorist attack when US Embassy in Russia issued warning.

They still went ahead 2 weeks later.

It's over now. Whether war fatigue , 2 years of drug abuse or all the failures in the battlefield pushed them to do it that won't matter now.

On 15 March there was a Russian missile strike on Odessa, that killed 21 people.

When you read the CNN report this is a clear cut bombing of civilians, right?

Here are some of those killed in the thread below: Ivan Svid - special forces officer from local police department.

While the war in Ukraine is far from over in Kazakhstan very similar activity is taking place to what happened in Ukraine since 1991.

The US is financing local nationalists, journalists, public figures via grants.

Promoting same victimhood history, with a lot of focus on the famine in the region, just as Ukraine.

Completely ignoring millions of ethnic Russians that were affected in Russia at the same time.

Kazakh nationalists record videos for social media where they bully ethnic Russians that don't speak the Kazakh language. Telling them to go back to Russia despite the fact that they were born in Kazakhstan and are citizens of the country.

There is also some involvement in the region from Turkey to promote Pan-Turkism.

Combined with the efforts of the US to turn the country another anti-Russia region a war in the future is not so far-fetched.

Ethnic Kazakh population by percentage on the map.

The top part is North Kazakhstan where ethnic Russians still outnumber the Kazakhs despite immigration to Russia since 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union.

The region also still has a large presence of Volga Germans that were deported from Saratov region, however many have also left for Germany.

It's right on the border with Russia in Siberia, in case of a war crossing it would take less effort than Ukrainian border as it's very lightly protected by a few border posts.

Russia would size all of North Kazakhstan with a population of around 550,000 of which only 200,000 are ethnic Kazakhs.

Potentially Karaganda Region in Central Kazakhstan, country's largest region, major center for coal mining with 1,350,000 population.

Despite seemingly good relations between Russian and Kazakh leaderships there are no signs of local authorities cracking down on nationalists which could very well lead the country on the same path as Ukraine.

Same as with Euromaidan in Ukraine a major event could lead to unpredictable consequences.

Just a month before the invasion of Ukraine in January 2022 there was unrest in Kazakhstan, 5 members of Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) headed by Russia dispatched peacekeeping forces to the country. Kazakhstan is second in terms of uranium resources after Australia but ranks first in uranium production.

Retired major general of the Ukrainian armed forces Serhiy Krivonos met with commander Zaluzhny yesterday and voiced his support.

Stating that Zelensky's government is manipulating and lying, wanting to blame the military for their own failures. Krivonos was appointed by former president Poroshenko as deputy secretary of the national security and defense council of Ukraine then Zelensky dismissed him which Krivonos was very bitter about.

It's possible the political opposition is grooming Zaluzhny to join their side against Zelensky as Zaluzhny is currently the most popular person in the country.

Krivonos spent the past 2 years as regular guest on Poroshenko's TV channel with heavy criticism of Zelensky and his team.

There is nothing controversial about Nazis from Eastern Galicia, Austria-Hungary like Stepan Bandera and Roman Shukhevych.

They've wanted to wipe out minorities and indoctrinate Soviet Ukraine with their Galician ideology of what they've believed a real ''Ukrainian'' should be. In fact they've succeeded within Eastern Galicia and Volhynia, massacring Poles, Jews and Ukrainians that didn't want to join their Galician ideology or fought as partisans against Nazi Germany.

For a short period of time under Nazi Germany they've created their dream Ukraine.

INCREDIBLE!

David Arakhamia, parliamentary leader of Zelensky's ''Servant of the People'' confirmed today in an interview what many speculated for close to 2 years.

If Ukraine agreed to remain neutral country not joining NATO Putin was ready to end the war at the end of March 2022, this was the main point.

According to David Arakhamia when he together with Ukraine's delegation came back to Kiev from 29–30 March peace negotiations in Istanbul Boris Johnson came to Ukraine and said ''we will not sign anything at all with them, lets just fight!''

The rest is history.

Today Ukraine can only dream about those conditions it was offered.
Many called both conspiracy theories that Putin was ready to end the war and that Johnson urged Ukraine to reject and fight.

Interview (in Ukrainian, you can turn on the subtitles on YouTube and then auto-translate to the language of your choice).

Hamas and powers behind them knew exactly what they were doing.

It wasn't random violent outburst to kill people.

They want a retaliation.

Lets see if Netanjahu takes the bait and orders ground operation which could become fatal for Israel but also for the US geopolitically. It was expected that Israel would bomb buildings in a territory that has no air defense systems which would lead to massive civilian casualties.

Footage is seen by tens if not hundreds of millions of Muslims around the world.

When Pandora Papers corruption story broke out, faction leader and friend of Zelensky Davyd Arakhamia said there was nothing wrong with offshore bank accounts, admitting he had many and his wife still had one in the Seychelles.

Ukraine was world's #1 on the list with 38 people. ''The leaks disclosed that Zelensky, a former comedian, and his partners in show business owned multiple offshore companies, including at least one that was involved in the purchase of several properties in central London''.

Truth is that Zelensky's life belongs to US government.

He's only useful as long as the war is going, his task is to keep the borders closed and draft as many men as he can to shoot at the Russians.

He knows too much and would be physically removed once he served his purpose. Zelensky will mobilize every person in Ukraine that he can to keep the war going as long as he can even if it means Ukrainian nation will cease to exist in the end.

This is the only way he can prolong his own life by proving he's still useful for US government and NATO.

The more details come out about the events around Prigozhin's business jet leading up to the crash the more I begin to question what actually happened and who could be responsible.

Very uncharacteristic negligence and strange activities. Putin ordering to kill this way seems less and less likely.

Timing is off, too early and the style.

Current theories: Ukraine or another foreign country, believing this will lead to infighting in Russia and turmoil, could be a country that opposes ''Wagner'' activity in Africa.

THREAD:

We start hearing suggestions from US and NATO officials that Ukraine might have to give up some territory to end the war.

2022 plan failed, someone in US leadership believed Ukraine could expose Russia's lack of manpower and make much bigger gains than they did. Ukraine managed to recapture Kharkov region and parts of Kherson including the city itself but that wasn't enough. Ukraine is already losing the gains it made during the Kharkov counteroffensive as Russia gradually increased its manpower.

With ''Wagner'' in Belarus I wonder if Ukraine will make the mistake of being trigger-happy, at some point being frustrated in the battlefield to present something as a victory deciding to strike ''Wagner'' base.

Hence involving Belarus directly into the war. It could also be a ''Wagner'' or Russian army false flag or Ukraine hiring locals to do some act of sabotage in Belarus, not necessarily involving ''Wagner'' but something Lukashenko would consider to be a red line.

For now Russia lacks manpower to open a new front from Belarus.

THREAD:

Shocking child organ trafficking case from Ukraine.

Ukrainian man recently arrested on the border of Ukraine with Slovakia trying to buy 11-month-old child to sell for organs reveals the story while being held in pre-trial detention center in Uzhgorod. Denis Varodi admits that he was clearly aware that he was taking the children ''for organs'', despite the fact that he told the parents that their children would be adopted by European families.

Ukrainian equipment losses are ignored, nobody knows how many Ukrainian soldiers really died and what kind of shape the army is really in. All Russian strikes on ammunition depots and logistics are ignored while any random fire somewhere in Siberia is celebrated. Ukraine got some Leopards and Bradley while some men were trained in NATO countries. Are there still as many motivated men left as there were 1 year ago? We know Ukraine's air defense ability is nothing as it was in 2022 when Ukraine had massive bulk of Soviet-era equipment.

At some point Ukraine will go all in and send most NATO Leopards and Bradleys straight into Russian minefields getting hit with Ka-52 helicopters with guided missiles, fighter jets with upgraded FAB-500s as well as artillery.

What is the plan? Survivors reach Surovikin's line and get met with anti-tank missiles from ground troops that will be covered by helicopters, fighter jets and artillery.

Ukraine might need own fighter jets and air defenses in big numbers to even have a slight chance.

To calm down confused Ukrainian population about so far failed counteroffensive today a video of commander Zaluzhnyi was released.

Zelensky and several other top Ukrainian officials claimed everything is going according to plan.

To me this means the exact opposite. If you have to convince people everything is going according to plan then the plan might not be working so well.

Russian Ka-52 ''Alligator'' helicopters destroyed 60 pieces of Ukrainian equipment during the counteroffensive.

At the same time there are no confirmed shot down helicopters despite almost daily claims by Ukraine without visual conformation. ''Vikhr'' guided missiles together with minefields are almost single-handedly stopping Ukrainian counteroffensive for 14 days with some support from Russian artillery and FPV drones.

If Ukraine's counteroffensive ends up in a failure this is where things will get even more dangerous and interesting.

Zelensky will blame commander Zaluzhnyi and NATO not giving Ukraine enough weapons.

Who will NATO and Biden blame?

Zelensky or Zaluzhnyi? US media is already using Zaluzhnyi as the scapegoat for Nord Stream bombing. If the counteroffensive failure is also blamed on him, he's done.

But he has a lot of supporters in the military.

If Zelensky and NATO think they can get rid of him this way they might be surprised.

With nothing to show after 2 weeks of the counteroffensive to boost morale Ukraine's supporters on social media made up a story using a fake source pretending to be Russians about up to 300 fighters from Ossetia being killed in a tiny village Pyatikhatki.

But there is a problem. Just a few hours later yesterday this ''Storm.Ossetia'' batallion fighting on the side of Russia debunked this claim on their Telegram channel calling the story psychological warfare and fake news.

This fabricated story is still celebrated on Twitter and has over 500,000 reach.