[Another] THREAD: We’ve gotten rid of a lot of coal plants in the U.S. in a few years. Lots of people want to see the country get to zero coal very soon. What would that take? A few thoughts. spglobal.com/marketintellig…

https://twitter.com/taykuy/status/1356964406219993092

For one, it probably isn’t going to happen really soon on its own. There are plenty of new-ish coal plants out there that are likely to hang on a few more years and compete with other forms of power generation. But opposition is varied and quite strong.

*Deep breath, pre-thread*

As we close the book on four years of President Donald Trump, I think it is safe to say that the administration not only failed its campaign promise to “put the miners back to work” and “get those mines open.” The industry is in worse shape than ever.

Latest US coal employment/production figures are another (extraneous?) confirmation coal isn't back. Recent flattish figures likely to get worse in coming weeks for a few reasons.

First, the red line roughly demarcates pre-Trump/post-Trump timeframes. 1/ spglobal.com/marketintellig… First arrow points to rise in employment. This was a bounce off of some huge cutbacks as supply tried to catch up with coal plant retirements. About the same time, export demand picked up. This sustained that small bounce and covered up some of the impacts of more retirements. 2/

Despite hiccups, Navajo Transitional Energy Co. confident its coal strategy can work in Powder River Basin: spglobal.com/marketintellig…

I asked about strategy to succeed where Cloud Peak couldn't, but they did not want to share whatever that strategy is. Let's talk coal strategy. 1/ Most coal companies, and companies in general, have some sort of strategy to outshine their peers. But the companies are usually at least willing to talk generally about that strategy. I've heard about a lot of strategies in my years, but few have actually worked. 2/

NEW: Diving into Murray Energy's bankruptcy docs where we're getting a lot of information we usually can't see for the private coal producer.

One big thing: Business plan assumptions project HUGE drop in expected coal production and revenues through 2028: spglobal.com/marketintellig… Murray Energy is expecting 39.9% drop in coal volume by 2028 while revenue is expected to fall from $2.32B to just $1.34B in the same period.

It also plans to spend less at its mines: Murray forecast overall capital expenditures drops $245M in 2019 to $63M in 2028.

Letters Blackjwel coal miners sent to court really show human toll the company's messy bankruptcy took on a workforce who found themselves suddenly without paychecks after the company filed bankruptcy July 1. Here's a thread w/ links to a few of their stories. 1/ A group of miners at the company's D17 mine are worried about how to feed their families after they "worked our butts off for this company" that "doesn't care about the men what so ever."

Says "Blackjewel has done us miners really terrible." docdro.id/0d0HXfC /2

One of toughest parts about covering U.S. coal (and with black lung, fatalities, etc. there’s plenty of tough parts) has been reading letters from miners and families pleading w/ companies to preserve promises made before bankruptcy. A few to Westmoreland Coal follows here. 1/ First, however, I’ll point out @hroxaner touched on some letters and concerns for the Casper Star Tribune and bundled it up with context around the case and what many miners’ families are going to be thinking about heading into this Christmas holiday.
trib.com/business/energ… 2/

Why is it so hard to save US coal? A brief exercise I’ll call: I’ve Got Control of a Few Million Dollars and Might Invest in Coal Because Trump is President Right Now. /1 First things first. What’s general public sentiment around coal and coal investments right now? Bad. Only some niche investment in metallurgical coal producers among pro and pro-am investors. That’s not a good sign, but hey, maybe I’m smarter than the market... /2

NEW: Federal data reveals a lot about coal sector, but top line is coal jobs and production took a turn downward again:

Let's talk a few more stats: platform.mi.spglobal.com/web/client?aut… 1/ For example, in the second half of 2016, we produced about 1.4% more coal than we did in the second half of 2017. 2/