Brumby Profile picture
heterodox thinker; views my own. here to learn and, more recently, to share. covid, politics, society, markets
DR. PEPE, ESQ. B.S.(NobelWinnerInWaiting) Profile picture The Real Dr. Steven Horvitz Profile picture Rogier v Vlissingen Profile picture Knightess Duckworth Telegram: Profile picture Lew Profile picture 19 added to My Authors
4 Aug
The insanity continues, and so shall my rants...

1. CDC: as long as you muzzle your 3 year old in California, no vaccinated adults at a weeklong sex party in Massachusetts will have an asymptomatic positive PCR test
2. Masks dont work & prob make it worse: "rates of all infection[s] were highest in the cloth mask arm, w the rate of ILI statistically significantly higher in the cloth mask arm"
"Penetration of cloth masks by particles was almost 97%"
"may result in increased risk of infection"
Read 21 tweets
1 Aug
I'm back from vacation and the CDC clown show has me fired up. Time for a rant. You know the drill ... a collection of standalone charts, thoughts, analogies, quotes, etc.

1. If u think getting [X]% of population vaxd will (i) stop covid & (ii) cause authorities to grant you your life back, consider the Republican enclave of--checks notes--San Francisco?

Nearly 80% of population is vaccinated. Cases up 10x.

2. Delta didn't cause vax to "fail." If there's a failure, it was the vax having been marketed as a tool for eradication, which is entirely unrealistic. That didn't happen so now they blame you.

Politicians/bureaucrats aren't interested in solving your problems; only their own.
Read 24 tweets
28 Jul
I am sensing some real backlash today to the CDC’s flip flopping, bait-&-switching, & outright lying.

As many of you know, I love history and psychology, both of which may provide some insight as to what is happening.

In the 80s, after decades of repression, Gorbachev granted Soviet citizens new freedoms/liberties through “glasnost” & “perestroika”

Unsatisfied w the shift, a # of govt, military, & KGB officials staged a coup, arrested Gorbachev & announced reinstatement of the old order

Most expected the Soviet populace to follow prior behavior and passively acquiesce. However, something had changed: Gorbachev had ceded the people certain rights and when these new rights were threatened, there was a massive backlash.

Read 6 tweets
22 Jul
In finding Swedish child seroprevalence yesterday, I spent some time on their Public Health site and—WOW—what a breath of fresh air. They actually tell …the truth… instead of fomenting panic. Let’s take a look at some highlights & compare to USA

US: Everyone must mask & lockdown or all will perish

Sweden: “There are reports of transmission of COVID-19 from people without any symptoms of illness. However, only a few studies describe the role of this type of transmission in relation to the...
...overall spread of COVID-19 in the community. Based on the available knowledge about COVID-19 and similar diseases, the current understanding is that this route of transmission represents a minor part”
Read 12 tweets
20 Jul
Why has censorship been so extreme? Take the famous Milgram expmnt where 65% of ppl delivered 450-volt shocks to others despite cries of agony (obedience to authority). In 1 lesser known variation, the “teacher” (delivering shocks) was commanded by 2 diff. authority figures:
one ordered the teacher to stop when the victim cried in pain, the other simultaneously demanded the experiment continue. The “teacher” would invariably stop and THINK. One study subject said “Wait, wait. Which is it going to be? 1 says stop, 1 says go…which is it!!??”
In the absence of a single authority figure, EVERY SINGLE ONE followed their own critical thinking & moral judgement and terminated the cruel experiment. This is why the narrative is so controlled; we can’t have people thinking for themselves or they might do the moral thing.
Read 5 tweets
16 Jul
16 months ago today, six San Francisco Bay Area county suburbs jointly announced a “3-week” stay at home order, the first in the USA to do so.

Today, “3 weeks” (+ 15 months) later only 18.1% of SF metro workers have returned to their offices, the lowest in the nation.

Not surprisingly, 52% of all California small businesses have closed. This is because 83% of businesses r in cities (>than 50k pop), many of them catering to office workers in central business districts (bars, restaurants, gyms, theaters, dry cleaners, taxi, boutiques, etc)

Everyone should experience a week of the pandemic (lockdown) in both an urban downtown & rural community. The former are ghost towns w nothing but homeless addicts & boarded up retail vacancies. Lifestyles didn’t change in the latter (& yet the populations weren’t wiped out)

Read 6 tweets
14 Jul
Many comments on my thread earlier this week re China/lockdowns. Think about what's happened over the last 18 mo's & tell me if it sounds more like a repressive communist regime or a Western liberal democracy. None of this was remotely fathomable until China showed us the way
🔹You have been inundated with terrifying & false propaganda all day

🔹Information has been tightly controlled by a small group of monopolistic technology companies collaborating with government to censor all counter-narrative material

🔹Law enforcement closed parks & playgrounds, you were forbidden from traveling more than a few miles from your home, & only for essential gov’t-sanctioned activities

🔹You were not permitted to interact with any people outside your own household

Read 9 tweets
12 Jul
China Psychological Tactics -- Korean War

During the Korean War, the Chinese were more successful than the North Koreans extracting info from American POWs. The Chinese used sophisticated psychological tactics while North Koreans employed harsh physical punishment/torture
Dr. Henry Segal, chief of the neuropsychiatric evaluation team examining returning POWs, reported that war/political-related beliefs had been substantially altered: “many expressed antipathy toward the Chinese Communists but at the same time praised them for ‘the fine job…
they had done in China.’ Others stated that ‘although communism won’t work in America, I think its a good thing for Asia’”

Continuing, Dr Segal said if we measure China’s success in terms of “defection, disloyalty, changed attitudes & beliefs, poor discipline, poor morale…
Read 12 tweets
8 Jul
Sorry masking kids is an objectively losing position

1st consider the following:

-mask mandates haven’t accomplished anything anywhere

-all adults who want vax have had it

-Covid is much less threat to kids than flu

-Unvaccinated kid’s risk is less than vax’d 30yr old

Then-putting aside potential physical harms-its impossible to overstate the importance of children seeing their friends’ smiles, joyful engagement w one another, & degree to which recognition & expression of nonverbal communication is a critical skill for participation in society
The only people still in favor of masking kids are (i) those seeking to display moral superiority or (ii) those in deep blue metro areas that are still hiding in their apartments and have no idea kids have been blissfully interacting maskless in most of the country for months.
Read 4 tweets
25 Jun
In case anyone was worried about how the top 10% are holding up in the USA during lockdowns, they’re doing just fine.

Inequality was already acute, but the lockdowns have greatly exacerbated. Assets increased appx $20trillion for the top 10% vs a blip for entire bottom 50% Image
They are busy buying up $1 million + priced homes (which have exploded) while middle and lower priced homes have barely budged despite record low interest rates. Image
See also the rates of employment in the lowest wage brackets between “lockdown lover’s paradise” California (chart 1 – down 38%) and “never lockdown again” Florida (chart 2 – fully recovered & then some). The futile winter lockdown absolutely crushed low-earning Californians ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
24 Jun
In the book When Prophecy Fails by Leon Festinger (father of "cognitive dissonance"), the author & colleagues infiltrate a 1950s UFO cult who believe the end of the world is near in order to understand how cultists will react when their prophecy inevitably goes unfulfilled.
They found that, instead of admitting error, those committed became even more steadfast in their beliefs, began to seek greater publicity,& developed rationalizations for why the event had not come to pass. Many concluded their piety was recognized & indeed had saved humanity
To minimize the negative impact of their failure, believers chose to forgo reason & proselytize even harder, doubling their recruiting efforts. After all, “If more & more people can be persuaded that the system of belief is correct, then clearly it must after all be correct"
Read 6 tweets
9 Jun
Its enjoyable/cathartic for me to write these longer semi-random threads & people seem to appreciate them as they can like and/or retweet the whole thread or individual tweets in the thread if so inclined (h/t to @MarkChangizi for teaching me how to tweet 🤣)

So here goes
1. Oh look, what a surprise … overdose-associated cardiac arrests (OCAs) were up 42.1% last year and the increase curve correlates exactly with the unemployment rate. Who could have possibly seen this coming? @EWoodhouse7 @snorman1776…
2. From the book Surveillance Capitalism: "Google's ideal society is a population of distant users, not citizenry. It idealizes people who are informed, but only in the ways the corporation chooses." 😲

Are we there yet?
Read 22 tweets
8 Jun
Only 29% of Dems believe people should strive for normal life now.

Here are my top 10 things with comparable support/belief among Americans:

1.Bigfoot – 21%
2.Sun revolves the earth – 25%
3.Dinosaurs & humans co-existed – 41%
4.Counting on lottery win for retirement – 20%
5.Witchcraft – 26%
6.Cell phones cause cancer – 20%
7.9/11 was an inside job – 23%
8.Ghosts/spirits can hurt living people – 32%
9.Astrology – 33%
10.Fortune telling – 26%
11. (Bonus) Telepathy – 31%
Read 5 tweets
7 Jun
Thinking over the wknd further about this atrocious CDC garbage & tying it w a couple datapoints, a picture emerges:

Society is a dichotomous mess w only 29% of Dems in favor of a return to normal vs 87% of Rs & only 1/3 of VACCINATED people comfortable going to the movies

The CDC, now just a political arm, recognizes this sizeable contingent of the pop. effectively lost to the propaganda of the last yr & believes the only way these folks will be comfortable reentering society is with every last child they may potentially encounter vaccinated

That'll never happen but I’ll be honest- even if it did- I fear it wouldn't be enough as I think this 71% group falls into 2 camps: (1) ppl literally traumatized by CNN propaganda, which only CNN could undo, which it will not b/c that would be contrary to its profit model,

Read 7 tweets
3 Jun
Reflecting on Fauci emails, my biggest takeaway is degree to which overall dialogue on the pandemic was controlled & censored mostly by BigTech/Media. But also by the left, which has become increasingly & strangely anti-free speech. This isn’t “muh freedoms”…this cost lives

Things “we” weren’t allowed to discuss but turns out Fauci was discussing early ‘20
- lab leak
- focused protection (GBD)
- asymptomatic spread
- masks ineffective
- aerosolized transm.
- virus already “past point of no return”
- seasonality
- risk contextualization

Had such topics been “permissible” to debate our disastrous monomaniacal interventions—which upended society & have proven anything but temporary—could've been tailored for greatest impact w the least harm/disruption. Instead, we shredded the societal fabric w/nothing to show
Read 7 tweets
25 May

Since my last “random backlog of covid musings” thread was popular, I thought I’d give it another shot. 22 quick thoughts/analogies/quotes/metaphors that I haven't had time to share previously:
1. The ppl who now claim it unreasonable to instantly give up masks & go back to work after 15 months of “new normal” r the same who scolded others for displaying any hesitation when forced to give-up an entire life’s work in Mar ’20 & embrace the criminalization of everyday life
2. The eagerness w which lockdown supporters are now embracing lab leak leads me to believe they view it as a scapegoat for why their abysmal policies didn’t work. ie NPIs/lockdowns would’ve stopped a natural virus but were no match for this manmade lab-freak. Don’t fall for it.
Read 23 tweets
14 May
Why the sudden shift in mask guidance that surely marks the beginning of the end of COVID mania? It certainly isn't b/c the science changed. Its because society is completely broken and the status quo is unsustainable.

1. People are voting with their feet for freedom:

2. Cities are collapsing without office workers
3. Leading to rampant crime…
Read 10 tweets
13 May
When running a stock portfolio, u are taught to reevaluate holdings each day & ask whether, if u had fresh $$ to invest, u would buy the same stocks u hold or whether you’re just hanging onto them b/c they’re already there.

We should ask ourselves the same about NPIs.

In behavioral finance, we call this status quo bias: people resist change even if change is prudent. Also associated w/ sunk cost fallacy (highly relevant to NPIs) & Kahneman’s work showing people feel greater regret for bad outcomes from new actions than from inaction.

Lockdowns & NPIs should be approached the same as ur portfolio. If anyone, even PH officials, stepped into our current world today, it would be objectively ridiculous to keep any current restrictions on schools, businesses, mask mandates, etc. CDC news today is a good start.

Read 9 tweets
11 May
Digging through some old lockdown materials. This July 2020 UK government study estimated that lockdowns would kill ~90,000 in the UK. This is equivalent to ~440,000 Americans.

16,000 from missed emergency care,
26,000 care-home deaths due to neglect/neglected care,
12,500 to deferred preventative care,
1,400 to lost community health outreach,
18,000 to short-term economic hardship, &
16,000 to long-term economic hardship.

What did US/UK gain in the fight against COVID by sacrificing hundreds of thousands of citizens? ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.

Both the UK and US had worse COVID outcomes than no-lockdown / no-mask Sweden. 440,000 Americans and 90,000 in the UK killed for nothing.

Read 5 tweets
19 Apr

Been a while since I did a thread

I tweet little as a) I’m busy & b) I respect your time, for which I’m grateful. Been accumulating a bunch of thoughts, & its time to clear the backlog: 25 quick observations/quotes/analogs/history lessons. Something for all:
Others have noted parallels of Milgram exprmnt & lockdown. Hwvr, what I haven’t seen noted is in Milgram 65% delivered deadly shocks to their subjects when in diff. rooms vs. 30% when in the same room. Lockdowners didn’t have to see the people whose lives they destroyed
2. LA Covid–Fermi Paradox
Look at below chart: LA hospitals barely reached ‘19 census at the peak in winter ‘21. We know hospitals operate at ~85% capacity, so they were never overwhelmed

Its like a 2020 version of Fermi Paradox: if there’s a pandemic where are all the patients?
Read 26 tweets
9 Apr
Community Health—largest for-profit US hospital chain—reported “inpatient admissions for the year ended 12/31/20 decreased 15.7% compared to the year ended 12/31/19 & consolidated adjusted admissions for the year ended 12/31/20 decreased 19.4%” Because hospitals were overwhelmed?
But “our hospitals have not generally experienced major capacity constraints to date arising from the treatment of COVID-19 patients”

Acadia Healthcare—on the other hand—operates inpatient psych facilities, residential treatment centers, group homes & substance abuse facilities.
Its 4th qtr '20 earnings beat estimates by 63.8%, surging 121.6% year over year, and its stock has risen almost six-fold in the last year.

Unlike MSM narrative bullsh*t, its illegal to lie in financial statements. Money talks.……
Read 4 tweets