Brumby Profile picture
heterodox thinker; views my own. here to learn and, more recently, to share. covid, politics, society, markets
3TW 🐭🐸🇺🇸 Profile picture The Real Dr. Steven Horvitz Profile picture phal Profile picture Rogier v Vlissingen 🇳🇱 Profile picture fche Profile picture 22 added to My Authors
Nov 5, 2021 8 tweets 3 min read
Let's take a look at a few economic charts as it relates to current policy response:

1. This is a chart of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, designed to gauge overall US economic activity.

Imagine thinking "the virus closed the economy, not the lockdowns" 2. Nursing Employment: perhaps not what you expected?
Nov 1, 2021 8 tweets 2 min read
This short 1948 essay excerpt from C.S. Lewis is pretty incredible. I encourage you to read it and substitute "Covid" for "atomic"/"bomb" (and the like) each place it appears.

Thread below too for those whose eyes are as bad as mine:

1/8 "In one way we think a great deal too much of the atomic bomb. “How are we to live in an atomic
age?” I am tempted to reply: “Why, as you would have lived in the sixteenth century when the plague visited London almost every year, or as you would have lived in a Viking age...

Sep 29, 2021 8 tweets 3 min read
It remains unclear to me whether there is a path forward in the big Blue cities out of Covid myopia. Most of these cities have extremely high vaccination rates--certainly anyone that wants one has received it--yet only 20-30% of workers are back in offices.

1/8 New York City has not even recovered half of the ~1.1m jobs lost due to the lockdowns.

Sep 10, 2021 5 tweets 1 min read
Even in the Zerocovid police states of Australia& NZ, pediatricians talk more sense than those in USA regarding child Delta:

"Its important to note that many [child hospitalizations] were for social hospitalisation statistics do not provide a good marker of severity" We "would like to reassure children and their parents that while the COVID delta variant has shown that
children are able to be infected and transmit COVID-19, COVID-19 is and generally remains a
mild infection in children."
Sep 9, 2021 7 tweets 3 min read
As predicted, nothing in Biden's plan will accomplish anything other than to further & dangerously divide the nation

Interestingly, some data from the UK came out today that refutes everything in his plan (other than increasing treatments which is of course good)

Let's look... 1. "Vaccinating the Unvaccinated" (mandates for workplaces)

Case rates are comparable or higher in vaccinated adults than unvaccinated.

Seems like it should be a personal choice given it clearly doesn't stop transmission.
Sep 8, 2021 17 tweets 3 min read
When COVID hit, I began hearing rumblings of a book called Unrestricted Warfare, written by 2 former Chinese Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) senior colonels & published by PLA

In short, it describes what war will look like in a post-nuclear, mutually assured destruction, age
1/17 I read the book cover to cover and I thought you might be interested in some quotes/passages I highlighted, which I encourage you to read w current events in mind.

“the media has become an immediate and integral part of warfare”

Aug 30, 2021 10 tweets 2 min read
Another day, another European country embarrassing the US with its rational child COVID policies (this time courtesy of Norway):

First, and most importantly: "Children under 12 years are not recommended to use face masks"

1/10 "Children who play together do not have to keep a distance. Children can have friends for sleepovers if everyone is well"

"Leisure activities are important for the physical & mental well-being of children & adolescents. Therefore, leisure activities should be maintained"

Aug 26, 2021 6 tweets 2 min read
A brief meandering thread

1. Many argue over the cost-benefit analysis of COVID measures (eg lockdowns, masks). This is jumping the gun: first, an actual benefit must be established, which has not occurred for either masks or lockdowns. So all we have are the immense costs. 2. "Odious debt" is a legal theory that sovereign debt incurred to oppress a population is unenforceable

Govts have spent $trillions locking ppl in their homes, promoting an environment of fear, closing schools & businesses, & banning worship, dating, & visitation of the ill 🤔
Aug 20, 2021 4 tweets 1 min read
On Wed, Biden said he'll "say a lot more about children & schools next week"

I think a Natl mask mandate is coming. Why? To prevent disenrollment in pub schools & to prevent data frm showing it makes no difference

Consider this study on disenrollment bc of remote learning:
Just released today:

"Specifically, our estimates suggest that offering remote-only instruction increased disenrollment by
42 percent... relative to in-person instruction"

The same will hold for masks IF other options are available

Aug 16, 2021 20 tweets 7 min read
Another Potpourri COVID Thread

1. A reminder that the people who brought us "lockdowns" are not our friends and do not share our values. This should have been obvious from Day 1. 2. Los Angeles reinstated its indoor mask mandate on July 18 and, as usual, is trying to credit it for the decline in case growth. As with every "successful" intervention, however, it came well AFTER the R had already peaked on Jul 3
Aug 11, 2021 9 tweets 4 min read
Looking at CDC excess death charts by state tells an interesting story

Let’s compare graphs of 7 states that did not issue a stay-at-home order (North & South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, Utah, Iowa, & Arkansas) w those that implemented strict lockdowns

Then we’ll discuss

1/9 Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, and South Dakota

Aug 6, 2021 25 tweets 8 min read
These threads seem to resonate (& help me crystalize some thoughts), so I'll keep them coming.

23 stand-alone graphs, thoughts, quotes, analogies, studies, etc. 1. I, along with Fundstrat, think Florida is peaking or very close to it. This is devastating to lockdowners. Things simultaneously are rising in the Northeast. Watch the narrative shift.
Aug 4, 2021 21 tweets 7 min read
The insanity continues, and so shall my rants...

1. CDC: as long as you muzzle your 3 year old in California, no vaccinated adults at a weeklong sex party in Massachusetts will have an asymptomatic positive PCR test 2. Masks dont work & prob make it worse: "rates of all infection[s] were highest in the cloth mask arm, w the rate of ILI statistically significantly higher in the cloth mask arm"
"Penetration of cloth masks by particles was almost 97%"
"may result in increased risk of infection"
Aug 1, 2021 24 tweets 7 min read
I'm back from vacation and the CDC clown show has me fired up. Time for a rant. You know the drill ... a collection of standalone charts, thoughts, analogies, quotes, etc.

1/22 1. If u think getting [X]% of population vaxd will (i) stop covid & (ii) cause authorities to grant you your life back, consider the Republican enclave of--checks notes--San Francisco?

Nearly 80% of population is vaccinated. Cases up 10x.

Jul 28, 2021 6 tweets 1 min read
I am sensing some real backlash today to the CDC’s flip flopping, bait-&-switching, & outright lying.

As many of you know, I love history and psychology, both of which may provide some insight as to what is happening.

In the 80s, after decades of repression, Gorbachev granted Soviet citizens new freedoms/liberties through “glasnost” & “perestroika”

Unsatisfied w the shift, a # of govt, military, & KGB officials staged a coup, arrested Gorbachev & announced reinstatement of the old order

Jul 22, 2021 12 tweets 3 min read
In finding Swedish child seroprevalence yesterday, I spent some time on their Public Health site and—WOW—what a breath of fresh air. They actually tell …the truth… instead of fomenting panic. Let’s take a look at some highlights & compare to USA

US: Everyone must mask & lockdown or all will perish

Sweden: “There are reports of transmission of COVID-19 from people without any symptoms of illness. However, only a few studies describe the role of this type of transmission in relation to the...
Jul 20, 2021 5 tweets 1 min read
Why has censorship been so extreme? Take the famous Milgram expmnt where 65% of ppl delivered 450-volt shocks to others despite cries of agony (obedience to authority). In 1 lesser known variation, the “teacher” (delivering shocks) was commanded by 2 diff. authority figures:
one ordered the teacher to stop when the victim cried in pain, the other simultaneously demanded the experiment continue. The “teacher” would invariably stop and THINK. One study subject said “Wait, wait. Which is it going to be? 1 says stop, 1 says go…which is it!!??”
Jul 16, 2021 6 tweets 2 min read
16 months ago today, six San Francisco Bay Area county suburbs jointly announced a “3-week” stay at home order, the first in the USA to do so.

Today, “3 weeks” (+ 15 months) later only 18.1% of SF metro workers have returned to their offices, the lowest in the nation.

1/6 Not surprisingly, 52% of all California small businesses have closed. This is because 83% of businesses r in cities (>than 50k pop), many of them catering to office workers in central business districts (bars, restaurants, gyms, theaters, dry cleaners, taxi, boutiques, etc)

Jul 14, 2021 9 tweets 2 min read
Many comments on my thread earlier this week re China/lockdowns. Think about what's happened over the last 18 mo's & tell me if it sounds more like a repressive communist regime or a Western liberal democracy. None of this was remotely fathomable until China showed us the way
🔹You have been inundated with terrifying & false propaganda all day

🔹Information has been tightly controlled by a small group of monopolistic technology companies collaborating with government to censor all counter-narrative material

Jul 12, 2021 12 tweets 4 min read
China Psychological Tactics -- Korean War

During the Korean War, the Chinese were more successful than the North Koreans extracting info from American POWs. The Chinese used sophisticated psychological tactics while North Koreans employed harsh physical punishment/torture
1/11 Dr. Henry Segal, chief of the neuropsychiatric evaluation team examining returning POWs, reported that war/political-related beliefs had been substantially altered: “many expressed antipathy toward the Chinese Communists but at the same time praised them for ‘the fine job…
Jul 8, 2021 4 tweets 1 min read
Sorry masking kids is an objectively losing position

1st consider the following:

-mask mandates haven’t accomplished anything anywhere

-all adults who want vax have had it

-Covid is much less threat to kids than flu

-Unvaccinated kid’s risk is less than vax’d 30yr old

Then-putting aside potential physical harms-its impossible to overstate the importance of children seeing their friends’ smiles, joyful engagement w one another, & degree to which recognition & expression of nonverbal communication is a critical skill for participation in society