genomics/bioinformatics lackey, aDNA enthusiast, scientific integrity zealot. weakly penetrant. 3rd-generation denisovan-american. proud carrier of 16 hom LoFs
Jul 12 • 15 tweets • 6 min read
genuinely shocking to me that study after study shows that social scientists are no better than regular people at high-level social science predictions: whether studies will replicate, which "nudge" interventions work, how social attitudes will change
a thread of examples:
(to be clear, we're not even talking about superforecasters here, just regular joes)
social scientists, applied and academic, were no better - if anything, possibly worse - than regular people at predicting which interventions would increase gym visits:
