Howard Marks dropped a new memo last week, and it's not good news.

He thinks the valuations are approaching the bubble territory.

Here is Howard Mark's latest warning: 🧵 1/ Howard Marks is one of the best value investors alive.

He predicted:

- Dotcom Bubble (2000)
- Great Financial Crisis (2008)
- Covid Bubble (2021)

In 2021, he said we were in an everything bubble:

$NU is one of my highest conviction stocks for the next decade.

It is still growing very fast despite dominating its market.

Yet, the stock is still cheap.

Here is everything you need to know about $NU, business, investment thesis, financials, everything.

(Thread 🧵) 1/ What does $NU really do?

David Velez, a Colombian, first came to Brazil for work and saw that opening a bank account was very hard.

He had previously worked at Sequoia Capital, so he knew when he saw an opportunity.

He decided to create a digital bank.

Hear the story:

1/ $NBIS is my highest conviction stock for the next 5 years.

Revenue is growing triple digits, and they are looking to quadruple the capacity by the end of next year.

It's just starting off.

Here is why it can make 3x in the next 2 years: 🧵 2/ What does $NBIS do?

It's a full-stack AI infrastructure provider.

What the hell does this mean?

They build and operate their own data centers with their custom hardware.

On top of this capacity, they have built a cloud business specifically for AI/ML workloads.

1/ $NVO was once a market darling, now everybody hates it.

It dominates the global insulin and weight-loss drugs markets.

Even if it delivers a high single-digit annualized growth in the next 5 years, the stock will double.

Here is why $NVO is an asymmetric opportunity: 🧵 2/ $NVO was nearly trading at 3x of today's valuation in January.

What changed?

Nothing more than the sentiment.

Let me explain:

1/ $SOFI train is taking off.

Growth is accelerating, the business is becoming increasingly capital-light, and it's rapidly entering new markets.

Here is my updated $SOFI investment thesis: 🧵 2/ Member growth is accelerating.

$SOFI added a mind-blowing 1.8 million members since Q4 2024.

This is the fastest rate at which the company has grown its membership in any two consecutive quarters.

This will result in accelerated product growth in the next few quarters.

The market is at all-time highs, yet more and more people are chasing the hot stocks.

Let's remember Charlie Munger, shall we?

He once said:

"When everybody goes insane, staying sane is your competitive advantage."

Here are his 7 principles to navigate expensive markets:🧵 1/ Stay calm.

There are three types of advantage in the markets:

- Technical.
- Behavioral.
- Informational.

The market is now filled with too many smart people, so nobody has a definitive technical or informational edge.

The only edge you can have is behavioral; stay calm.

1/ $GOOG is the cheapest mega-cap stock now.

Cloud business is exploding, search remains strong, and Gemini is nearing 500 million monthly active users.

Here is my $GOOG investment case: 🧵 2/ The business is exploding...

In the last quarter, they beat estimates in every growth metric.

This is a $2.3 trillion business, casually posting 14% YoY revenue growth.

Yet, the market still drastically undervalues it.

Here is why:

1/ $UNH is one of my highest conviction stocks for the next 5 years.

It is an easy 3x from the current levels.

Here is why $UNH is an asymmetric opportunity now: 🧵 2/ $UNH is dominating healthcare in the US.

As a group, UnitedHealth owns:

- Largest health insurer in the US
- Largest care delivery network
- Largest pharmacy benefit manager

These businesses are integrated under one roof, making it a vertically integrated giant.

$ASML was once a market darling, but now it gets garbage treatment.

Yet, its order book has reached all-time highs, the business is still growing fast, and it's heavily buying back stock.

Here is my full $ASML investment thesis: 🧵 1/ $ASML is a pure blood monopoly.

It's the single manufacturer of Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography (EUVL) machines essential to manufacturing cutting-edge chips.

Foundries like $TSMC use these machines to embed microscopic circuits into silicon.

Here is how it works:

$NVO was once a market darling, but now it gets garbage treatment.

Yet, revenue is exploding, margins are expanding, and it has blockbuster drugs in the pipeline.

Here is why $NVO is a 2x opportunity now: 🧵 1/ $NVO dominates the global insulin industry.

Most people think it's an obesity drug company; they don't know its real expertise: Diabetes.

They have been producing commercial insulin products since 1923 and currently control over 40% of the global market.

$SOFI can reach $25 by year-end.

Here is my $SOFI investment thesis: 🧵 1/ $SOFI is different from other digital banks.

Most digital banks are front-end platforms that outsource key services like underwriting and banking.

$SOFI has its own banking charter.

It offers banking, credit card, investment, and loan products through a single app:

Peter Lynch achieved 29% annual return for 13 years.

I spent 100+ hours studying his strategy.

I will explain his strategy in 10 simple steps: 🧵 1. "Know what you own and why you own it."

Behind every stock is a company, and you have to understand that company to succeed.

Peter Lynch looked for three criteria:

- Simple.
- Boring.
- Consistent.

If you can't explain what the company does in a sentence, pass it.

$OSCR was a market darling a week ago, but everybody is dumping the stock now.

Yet, nothing has changed in the business fundamentals.

Here is why it's an asymmetric opportunity now: 🧵 1/ $OSCR is a healthcare disruptor.

Americans have the lowest life expectancy among the developed nations despite having the best hospitals.

The reason is that the US healthcare system is broken.

Hear it from the $OSCR founder:

1/ $DLO is a 10x opportunity everybody ignores.

Transaction volume is skyrocketing, margins are stabilizing, and it's rapidly expanding into new markets.

Here is my full investment thesis: 🧵 2/ DLocal is a payment service provider that brings together many payment methods.

In developed countries, credit cards are the preferred payment method; in emerging markets, credit card penetration remains low.

This puts a drag on digital payments.

$DLO solves this problem:

1/ $AMD will be the next trillion dollar company.

It announced several breakthrough products yesterday that'll accelerate its growth.

Here is why $AMD is 5x opportunity from here: 🧵 2/ First things first─data center revenues are already exploding.

Everybody is concentrating on Nvidia, and AMD's growth is overlooked.

Its quarterly data center revenues have tripled since June 2023. It grew 56% YoY last quarter.

Yet, this is just the beginning.

Charlie Munger once said: "When everybody goes insane, staying sane is your competitive advantage."

It's more relevant than ever as fresh IPOs are getting 10-20x sales multiples and quantum stocks losing money are ripping.

Here are 10 investing principles I learnt from him: 🧵 1/ Invert, always invert.

If you want to make money, learn not to lose first.

Warren Buffett says, "I made most of my money in stocks that I thought I wouldn't lose much, not on the ones that I thought would be big winners."

1/ $NBIS is the next $100 billion company.

Revenues are exploding and they are building a new data center in the UK.

Here is why $NBIS is a 10x opportunity from here: 🧵 2/ $NBIS is growing very fast.

Demand for computers is skyrocketing.

Nebius built data centers in Finland and France and created a dedicated cloud platform around them to power AI and ML applications.

They currently have 25 MW capacity.

Target? 1GW by 2026:

The market is near all-time highs, yet there are still opportunities.

Here are 10 undervalued foundational stocks to buy now: 🧵

1. $UNH

- 5 Year Revenue CAGR: 11%
- Return on Investment: 11%
- Forward P/E: 13

The largest health insurer in the US.

Its growth in the insurance segment has stagnated because the medical costs and activity rates increased beyond their estimates.

Yet, the Optum unit is still growing in mid-teens.

They can easily go back to growth by bidding up for 2026, and they have already announced that this is the plan.

It's a no-brainer at this level. 2. $BN

- 5 Year Revenue CAGR: 7%
- Return on Investment: 18%
- Forward P/E: 35

Alternative asset management company managed by one of the great investors of our time, Bruce Flat.

They have significant investments in energy, especially renewables and nuclear.

These businesses are going to explode as data center expansion is already driving record demand for energy.

It's a great opportunity at 15 times distributable earnings.

The market is nearly back at all-time highs, yet there are still great long-term opportunities.

Here are my top 10 growth stock picks for the next decade: 🧵

1. $OSCR

5-Year Revenue CAGR: 67%
Gross Margin: 20%
Forward P/E: 42

Oscar is a direct-to-consumer health insurance company.

They are tapping into the ACA marketplace and also expanding fast in small and medium-sized businesses.

Their AI-based onboarding and claims processing allow them to have significantly lower costs than their competitors.

As it further expands its employer offerings, the growth will further accelerate.

It's currently trading at just 7 times projected 2027 earnings. 2. $NBIS

3-Year Revenue CAGR: 200%
Gross Margin: 41%
Forward P/S: 12

Nebius is an AI native cloud company that has its own data centers in France, Finland, and the US.

It builds its own hardware, and it is specifically designed to cut latency in heavy ML/AI workloads, especially inference.

They are backed by Nvidia and have early access to the latest GPUs.

Management guides for at least $750 million in revenue this year, which is expected to grow triple digits next year.

If they can reach the 1GW capacity target by 2026, the stock can easily make 8x.

$OSCR train is taking off.

Members are exploding, margins are expanding, and it's trading at just 7 times 2027 earnings.

Here is why $OSCR is a 5x opportunity: 🧵 1/ $OSCR is a revolutionary company.

The US has the most advanced hospitals and the best research universities in the world.

Yet, life expectancy in the US is lower than in other developed countries.

It's because the US healthcare system is broken.

Hear from $OSCR founder:

Jamie Dimon recently came out with an ominous prediction: "Bond market is going to crack."

We have already started to see this play out.

Bond yields are surging, job growth is slowing, and the deficit is about to explode.

Here is what Jamie Dimon sees coming: 🧵 1/ When Jamie Dimon speaks, we listen.

He took JP Morgan Chase unscathed from the 2008 Financial Crisis and played a pivotal role in containing the 2023 Banking Crisis.

Now he warns us all that the bond yields will explode.

Hear from him: