Oguz O. | š• Capitalist šŸ’ø Profile picture
Selective contrarian investor | The writer of the Capitalist-Letters newsletter read in +180 countries & Co-Founder @biggr_ai
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Oct 13 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
1/ $FLNC is the leading utility-scale battery provider with 5x potential.

Power demand is exploding due to rapid data center buildout.

Most of the new capacity should come from renewables, where storage is critical.

Here is why $FLNC is an asymmetric opportunity: 🧵 Image 2/ First, some background.

AI is driving rapid data center buildout across the world.

Bloomberg expects that data center power demand will quadruple in the next 10 years.

Where will this supply come from? Image
Sep 23 • 11 tweets • 7 min read
The market is near all-time highs, yet there are still many opportunities.

Here are 10 high-quality stocks having their largest drawdowns: 🧵

1. $NVO

Forward P/E: 15
5-year Revenue CAGR: 17%
Year-to-date Drawdown: 33%

$NVO is having one of its largest drawdowns.

Three factors contributed to this:

- Competition in the weight-loss segment.
- Danish Krone's decline against the USD.
- Worse than expected trial results.

All these factors are about to reverse.

Its oral Wegovy performed better than Eli Lilly's oral weight-loss pill, and it'll be launched late this year.

USD is also weakening as the Fed cuts rates, which means that the Danish Krone will recover against the USD.

I expect it to recover and climb above $100 within the next twelve months.Image 2. $UNH

Forward P/E: 19
5-year Revenue CAGR: 10%
Year-to-date Drawdown: 43%

Most of the decline of the $UNH stock price is due to industry headwinds.

The whole industry mispredicted the activity rates and the medical inflation for this year, and all of them are suffering.

However, the market acts as if $UNH were having deeper problems due to the negative sentiment around the company.

It's addressing all those problems.

It filed for repricing for most of its plans, and it's dumping unprofitable policies with strict cost-cutting policies in force.

Most of the criminal allegations that surfaced in the media have already been proven either old or baseless.

There is an ongoing investigation into Medicare billing practices, but the company remains confident as it has passed all the previous audits.

I think the stock will quickly recover to all-time highs once the ongoing investigation is resolved, offering ~40 upside from the current levels.Image
Sep 17 • 11 tweets • 6 min read
Demand for data center capacity is skyrocketing thanks to AI.

Here are my top 10 stock picks that'll heavily benefit from the demand for AI compute capacity: 🧵

1. $NBIS

- Owns and operates data centers.
- Its cloud is custom-built for AI workloads.
- Recently entered $17 billion deal with Microsoft.

The revenue is on track to exceed $1 billion this year, with the target connected capacity of 100MW.

The management aims for 1GW contracted capacity by the end of next year.

Even if it can achieve just 2GW capacity by 2030, it can generate up to $20 billion ARR at the current GPU/per hour rates.Image 2. $IREN

- Expanding from Bitcoin mining to AI-cloud capacity.
- It's building 75MW of new capacity for AI this year.
- It's planning to add another 2GW next year.

It has substantial experience in the data center business due to its Bitcoin mining businesses.

Bitcoin mining operations are also extremely profitable and work as a cash cow to fund the venture into the AI cloud.

An increasing Bitcoin price can offset its expenditures and enable it to fund data center buildout without using too much leverage.

It occupies a distinguished position among the neo-cloud providers as it isn't as dependent on external funding as the others.Image
Sep 15 • 11 tweets • 7 min read
S&P 500 is trading near its highest valuations since the Covid Bubble, and the opportunities are naturally rare.

Here are 10 high-quality stocks that are still undervalued:

1. $UNH

P/E Ratio: 15
5-Year Revenue CAGR: 10%
Return on Capital Employed: 10.3%

Both medical costs and the activity rates increased beyond the industry's expectations this year.

$UNH suffered more from this trend as it had absorbed over 900,000 new members who came from other providers that refused to extend their coverage at the current prices.

It has filed for price increases for 98% of its plans for the next year, and they are implementing strict cost controls for the remainder of this year.

Superinvestors like Warren Buffett, Michael Burry, and Chris Davis bought the stock.

The management expects to return to growth next year, in which case, the stock can return to all-time highs, offering 58% upside from here with a limited downside potential.Image 2. $PYPL

P/E Ratio: 14
5-Year Revenue CAGR: 8.5%
Return on Capital Employed: 18.9%

It's trading near its lowest valuation in years.

The growth slowed down substantially last year, dipping around 1% in Q1 2025. However, it reaccelerated last quarter to 5%.

Management is actively buying back a lot of shares and pursuing new growth opportunities, especially in advertising and BNPL.

I think ads and BNPL can be big categories for $PYPL that can reaccelerate the growth to low-double-digits.

In any case, it has very consistent cash flows, and the downside from here is very limited.Image
Sep 2 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
Ray Dalio sees the future.

He warned, "Something worse than a recession is coming."

It's already happening.

Gold prices are soaring while the USD index is collapsing.

What Ray Dalio sees coming next is disastrous: 🧵 Image
Image
1/ Ray Dalio created the biggest hedge fund in the world, Bridgewater Associates.

He predicted:

- Dotcom Bubble of 2000.
- Great Recession of 2008.
- Covid Bubble of 2021.

He now sees that the US is going into a debt crisis at full speed:
Aug 25 • 11 tweets • 6 min read
S&P 500 is trading at 28 times earnings, the highest level in the last 20 years, except the Covid Bubble.

Here are the 10 high-quality stocks that are still undervalued:

1. $UNH

P/E Ratio: 13
Return on Capital: 11.3%
5-Year Revenue CAGR: 10.4%

The largest healthcare company in the world is going through tough times.

Healthcare, as an industry, is experiencing above forecasted costs and activity, eating into its profits.

This is a temporary headwind as they are already raising prices for the next year and tightening their underwriting standards. I believe it'll quickly recover next year.

Warren Buffett has also opened a multi-billion-dollar position.

If the performance recovers, it can easily double from here.Image 2. $NVO

P/E Ratio: 14.6
Return on Capital: 27.6%
5-Year Revenue CAGR: 19.8%

It's dominating the global insulin and weight-loss drug market with over 40% market share in both.

The company has had headwinds due to competition and the strengthening of the USD against the Danish Krone.

Yet as competitors like Eli Lilly and Viking Therapeutics have come up with disappointing trial data, investors turned positive on the stock again.

Weaker USD will also be another tailwind as the FED is preparing to cut rates.

Bargain at 14 times earnings.Image
Aug 23 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
This is Howard Marks.

He is one of the best value investors alive.

He just went on the My First Million Podcast and shared his investment strategy.

Here are the 7 things you can't miss: 🧵 Image 1/ The riskiest thing in the world is believing that there is no risk.

The risk in the market doesn't come from companies; it comes from the behavior of humans.

This is why you should be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.
Aug 19 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
Howard Marks dropped a new memo last week, and it's not good news.

He thinks the valuations are approaching the bubble territory.

Here is Howard Mark's latest warning: 🧵 Image 1/ Howard Marks is one of the best value investors alive.

He predicted:

- Dotcom Bubble (2000)
- Great Financial Crisis (2008)
- Covid Bubble (2021)

In 2021, he said we were in an everything bubble:
Aug 18 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
$NU is one of my highest conviction stocks for the next decade.

It is still growing very fast despite dominating its market.

Yet, the stock is still cheap.

Here is everything you need to know about $NU, business, investment thesis, financials, everything.

(Thread 🧵) Image 1/ What does $NU really do?

David Velez, a Colombian, first came to Brazil for work and saw that opening a bank account was very hard.

He had previously worked at Sequoia Capital, so he knew when he saw an opportunity.

He decided to create a digital bank.

Hear the story:
Aug 12 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
1/ $NBIS is my highest conviction stock for the next 5 years.

Revenue is growing triple digits, and they are looking to quadruple the capacity by the end of next year.

It's just starting off.

Here is why it can make 3x in the next 2 years: 🧵 Image 2/ What does $NBIS do?

It's a full-stack AI infrastructure provider.

What the hell does this mean?

They build and operate their own data centers with their custom hardware.

On top of this capacity, they have built a cloud business specifically for AI/ML workloads. Image
Aug 4 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
1/ $NVO was once a market darling, now everybody hates it.

It dominates the global insulin and weight-loss drugs markets.

Even if it delivers a high single-digit annualized growth in the next 5 years, the stock will double.

Here is why $NVO is an asymmetric opportunity: 🧵 Image 2/ $NVO was nearly trading at 3x of today's valuation in January.

What changed?

Nothing more than the sentiment.

Let me explain: Image
Jul 30 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
1/ $SOFI train is taking off.

Growth is accelerating, the business is becoming increasingly capital-light, and it's rapidly entering new markets.

Here is my updated $SOFI investment thesis: 🧵 Image 2/ Member growth is accelerating.

$SOFI added a mind-blowing 1.8 million members since Q4 2024.

This is the fastest rate at which the company has grown its membership in any two consecutive quarters.

This will result in accelerated product growth in the next few quarters. Image
Jul 27 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
The market is at all-time highs, yet more and more people are chasing the hot stocks.

Let's remember Charlie Munger, shall we?

He once said:

"When everybody goes insane, staying sane is your competitive advantage."

Here are his 7 principles to navigate expensive markets:🧵 Image 1/ Stay calm.

There are three types of advantage in the markets:

- Technical.
- Behavioral.
- Informational.

The market is now filled with too many smart people, so nobody has a definitive technical or informational edge.

The only edge you can have is behavioral; stay calm.
Jul 25 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
1/ $GOOG is the cheapest mega-cap stock now.

Cloud business is exploding, search remains strong, and Gemini is nearing 500 million monthly active users.

Here is my $GOOG investment case: 🧵 Image 2/ The business is exploding...

In the last quarter, they beat estimates in every growth metric.

This is a $2.3 trillion business, casually posting 14% YoY revenue growth.

Yet, the market still drastically undervalues it.

Here is why: Image
Jul 17 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
1/ $UNH is one of my highest conviction stocks for the next 5 years.

It is an easy 3x from the current levels.

Here is why $UNH is an asymmetric opportunity now: 🧵 Image 2/ $UNH is dominating healthcare in the US.

As a group, UnitedHealth owns:

- Largest health insurer in the US
- Largest care delivery network
- Largest pharmacy benefit manager

These businesses are integrated under one roof, making it a vertically integrated giant. Image
Jul 16 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
$ASML was once a market darling, but now it gets garbage treatment.

Yet, its order book has reached all-time highs, the business is still growing fast, and it's heavily buying back stock.

Here is my full $ASML investment thesis: 🧵 Image 1/ $ASML is a pure blood monopoly.

It's the single manufacturer of Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography (EUVL) machines essential to manufacturing cutting-edge chips.

Foundries like $TSMC use these machines to embed microscopic circuits into silicon.

Here is how it works:
Jul 9 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
$NVO was once a market darling, but now it gets garbage treatment.

Yet, revenue is exploding, margins are expanding, and it has blockbuster drugs in the pipeline.

Here is why $NVO is a 2x opportunity now: 🧵 Image 1/ $NVO dominates the global insulin industry.

Most people think it's an obesity drug company; they don't know its real expertise: Diabetes.

They have been producing commercial insulin products since 1923 and currently control over 40% of the global market. Image
Jul 8 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
$SOFI can reach $25 by year-end.

Here is my $SOFI investment thesis: 🧵 Image 1/ $SOFI is different from other digital banks.

Most digital banks are front-end platforms that outsource key services like underwriting and banking.

$SOFI has its own banking charter.

It offers banking, credit card, investment, and loan products through a single app: Image
Jul 3 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Peter Lynch achieved 29% annual return for 13 years.

I spent 100+ hours studying his strategy.

I will explain his strategy in 10 simple steps: 🧵 Image 1. "Know what you own and why you own it."

Behind every stock is a company, and you have to understand that company to succeed.

Peter Lynch looked for three criteria:

- Simple.
- Boring.
- Consistent.

If you can't explain what the company does in a sentence, pass it.
Jul 2 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
$OSCR was a market darling a week ago, but everybody is dumping the stock now.

Yet, nothing has changed in the business fundamentals.

Here is why it's an asymmetric opportunity now: 🧵 Image 1/ $OSCR is a healthcare disruptor.

Americans have the lowest life expectancy among the developed nations despite having the best hospitals.

The reason is that the US healthcare system is broken.

Hear it from the $OSCR founder:
Jun 22 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
1/ $DLO is a 10x opportunity everybody ignores.

Transaction volume is skyrocketing, margins are stabilizing, and it's rapidly expanding into new markets.

Here is my full investment thesis: 🧵 Image 2/ DLocal is a payment service provider that brings together many payment methods.

In developed countries, credit cards are the preferred payment method; in emerging markets, credit card penetration remains low.

This puts a drag on digital payments.

$DLO solves this problem: