Oguz O. | 𝕏 Capitalist 💸 Profile picture
Selective contrarian investor | The writer of the Capitalist-Letters newsletter read in +170 countries 👇🏼
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Feb 22 11 tweets 5 min read
Market is still near all time highs despite the pull back last week.

Here are 10 stocks I'll be buying if we get a deeper correction: 🧵

1. $AMZN

Forward P/E: 34
Gross Margin: 48%
5 Year Revenue CAGR: 14%

It's the leader in the US retail e-commerce and cloud computing and it's rapidly expanding market share in digital advertising.

Global cloud computing market is expected to reach $2.4 trillion by 2032.

If Amazon only holds its current 31% market share, you are now getting its other business for free.Image 2. $GOOG

Forward P/E: 20
Gross Margin: 58%
5 Year Revenue CAGR: 17%

It's dominating digital advertisement and it also has the fastest growing cloud business among all the mega-cap companies.

Youtube is also becoming the largest streamer in the world as its global share of screen time is way higher than the competitors. It's also rapidly expanding Venmo in the US which is currently the only operational robo-taxi business.

It's currently the cheapest mega-cap stock.Image
Feb 21 12 tweets 5 min read
$NU is one of my highest conviction stocks.

Revenues are exploding, user acquisition remains strong and delinquency rates are falling.

Here is my $NU investment thesis: 🧵 1/ $NU is the largest digital bank in the world.

It has more than 114 million users yet it's only active in three countries: Brazil, Colombia and Mexico.

It's the largest bank in Brazil and already serves 12% of the Mexican adult population.

This is just the beginning... Image
Feb 20 12 tweets 5 min read
$NBIS is the cheapest AI infrastructure stock everybody ignores.

Cloud revenue is exploding, it's heavily investing in data centers and Nvidia is their investor.

Here is everything you need to know about $NBIS: 🧵 Image 1/ $NBIS is a full stack AI infrastructure platform.

It operates data centers and offers a cloud platform that is complemented with native AI development studio where users can integrate open source AI models.

This drastically reduces setup and deployment time. Image
Feb 18 12 tweets 5 min read
$OSCR is disrupting the health insurance market.

Members tripled in the last two years, revenue is exploding and it's launching new affordable products.

Here is why $OSCR is a 10x opportunity from here: 🧵 Image 1/ US Healthcare is broken.

Employer sponsored system was created in 1950s to offset inflation.

The goal was putting the burden on employers rather than employees to keep the wage increases capped to fight inflation.

Oscar CEO explains why the system is broken 👇
Feb 17 11 tweets 6 min read
Ecosystem businesses outperform others by a wide margin because of ecosystem lock-in and network effects.

Here are the 10 best ecosystem stocks: 🧵

1. $AMZN

Its ecosystem centers its e-commerce marketplace that gets more than 300 million visits every month.

Over time, it has built complementary businesses to which marketplace drives customers. Third party seller services, advertising, home products and services, publishing, tele-health services are just examples.

Once a customer uses more than one product, replacing Amazon with something else comes with an outsized risk that people don't want to take.Image 2. $GOOG

It has four dominant businesses that are interconnected to each other: Search, Chrome, Android and Youtube.

Its dominance in web browser and mobile operating system reinforces its search dominance as its search engine is default in Chrome and Android.

Youtube benefits from giant network effects as more users attract more creators and vice versa.

Interconnection of all these businesses provides it with an unmatched dataset that enables it to serve ads with unrivaled efficiency and targeting.Image
Feb 16 12 tweets 5 min read
$GRAB is the next big ecosystem business.

It's dominating deliveries and mobility in Southeast Asia and it has a fast growing fintech division.

Here is my investment thesis: 🧵 Image 1/ Grab is a Singaporean super-app.

It's primarily active in:

- Mobility.
- Deliveries.
- Fintech solutions.

It has a visionary founder at the helm who defeated global giants like UBER through obsessive focus and robust knowledge of the region 👇
Feb 15 12 tweets 5 min read
$HOOD is my top pick for the next 10 years.

Trading revenues are exploding, assets under management are booming and it's starting to expand internationally.

Here is my full investment thesis: 🧵 1/ $HOOD now has three revenue channels driving growth:

- Trading revenues.
- Net interest revenue.
- Other product revenues.

All these segments are growing really fast.

Here is how they performed last quarter 👇 Image
Feb 14 11 tweets 5 min read
My top 10 growth stock picks for the next decade: 🧵

1. $HOOD

- Forward P/E: 44
- Operating Margin: 54%
- 5 Year Revenue CAGR: 57%

Preferred brokerage among younger generations with growing asset management and credit card business.

Diverse services allows it to lock-in users in the platform. There are ample growth opportunities ahead as it's just starting expanding internationally.Image 2. $HIMS

- Forward P/E: 114
- Operating Margin: 6%
- 5 Year Revenue CAGR: 76%

Market leader in telemedicine with 54% market share among newcomers.

It has hit the inflection point last year, rapidly growing revenues and entering new markets such as menopause.

Must own disruptor.Image
Feb 13 12 tweets 5 min read
$HIMS is still a 10x opportunity from here.

Demand is exploding, margins are improving and it's entering new markets.

Here is why $HIMS is still a great opportunity: 🧵 Image 1. Revenue is exploding.

$HIMS revenue increased 5x in the last four years, from $270 million in 2021 to $1.2 billion in 2024.

This isn't going to slow down anytime soon as Americans demand cheaper healthcare, especially drug prices. Image
Feb 11 8 tweets 4 min read
1/ $NVDA will be the first $10 trillion company.

Jensen Huang predicted that the world would add $1 trillion worth of data centers next decade.

We are adding it in just 2 years.

Here is why $NVDA is still a great opportunity: 🧵 2/ We currently have 11,000 data centers around the world.

The US has 5,300 data centers alone.

Currently nearly 10% of all the data centers are hyperscale, meaning they can take up to 1 million GPUs. Image
Feb 9 11 tweets 6 min read
My 10 best ideas for companies with the strongest moats: 🧵

1. $AMZN

Competitive Moat: It's marketplace receives more than 300 million visits every month creating strong network effects.

It currently operates 121 warehouses across the US which makes it impossible for any newcomer to match its selection and speed of delivery.

It has multi-billion businesses running on AWS that creates high switching costs. Plus, this segment has become increasingly capital intensive which makes the industry concentrate around the big providers.

- 5 year revenue CAGR: 13%
- Gross margin: 48%
- Forward P/E: 36Image 2. $GOOG

Competitive Moat: Its search processes trillions of queries annually, establishing an unparalleled data advantage and network effects. Every search refines its algorithms, creating a powerful winner-take-all dynamic in search.

Beyond search, Google's vast ecosystem of interconnected services, including YouTube, Android, Gmail, Maps, and Chrome, creates significant switching costs for users.

It's also investing massively in AI infrastructure which becomes even more powerful when combined with the other native services it provides.

- 5 year revenue CAGR: 17%
- Gross margin: 58%
- Forward P/E: 20Image
Feb 8 11 tweets 5 min read
1/ $AMD is a 10x opportunity everybody ignores.

Lisa Su believes that inference will be a bigger market than training.

Training is the cost center of AI workload while inference is where you make money. $AMD has an advantage here.

Let me explain why: 🧵 2/ Training AI models is compute intensive.

It takes thousands of GPUs to train cutting edge models.

unlike CPUs, GPUs excel in parallel computing which lets us feed the model with millions of different datasets at the same time.

$NVDA dominates this market, thanks to CUDA: Image
Feb 6 12 tweets 5 min read
$AMZN is my highest conviction for the next decade.

Here is my full investment thesis: 🧵 1/ $AMZN has three businesses that make +$100 billion annual revenue:

• E-commerce: $247 billion
• Cloud Computing: $108 billion
• Third party seller services: $156 billion

Despite their size, growth of these businesses will accelerate 👇 Image
Feb 5 12 tweets 5 min read
Charlie Munger was a big believer in mental models.

But he’s not the only one—Warren Buffett, Howard Marks, and George Soros too use mental models before investing in a company.

Here's 10 most powerful mental models I've learned from genius investors: 🧵 Image 1. Inversion (Charlie Munger)

Do you want to make money in the market?

Don't focus on making it, focus on how not to lose it. If you secure the downside, upside will take care of itself.

As Buffett says:

"Rule #1 is never lose money. Rule #2 is never forget the first rule."
Feb 4 11 tweets 5 min read
1/ $PLTR is one of the most important businesses in the world.

Yet, most people don't know what it actually does.

Here is everything you need to know about $PLTR, business, investment thesis, financials, everything.

(Thread 🧵) Image 2/ $PLTR is building operating systems for governments and private entities.

Entities use its products to integrate all their data in one platform and use it to create digital twins of themselves.

Then, they could run models to eliminate risks, enhance operations etc... Image
Feb 3 11 tweets 5 min read
Here's top 10 stocks to buy in a market crash:

1. $AMZN

- Forward P/E: 40
- Profit margins: 10%
- 5 year revenue CAGR: 18%

Leader in cloud computing and e-commerce and the third largest digital ad provider. Increasing demand for data storage and servers are secular tailwinds.

As cloud market is expected to reach $2.3 trillion in size by 2032, it can easily triple from here in the next 7 years.Image 2. $NU

- Forward P/E: 25
- Profit margins: 32%
- 5 year revenue CAGR: 80%

Largest digital bank in the world. It's moving its domicile to UK to spearhead its international expansion.

It can easily quadruple the revenue in the next 10 years even without much organic growth as its revenue per active user is only 1/4 of that of traditional banks.Image
Jan 31 12 tweets 4 min read
This is Nassim Taleb.

He is a great options trader and one of the most prolific thinkers alive.

I spent +100 hours studying his mental models.

Here's 5 best investing lessons I learnt from him: 🧵 Image 1/ Superlinear Returns

Nassim Taleb calls this "Black Swans".

They are the big winners.

• Monopolies.
• Turnarounds.
• Unicorn companies.

They all provide exceptional returns.
He believes the goal should be finding one of them instead of buying mediocre many companies.
Jan 25 13 tweets 4 min read
Mohnish Pabrai is one of the best investors alive.

He turned $1 million to $13 million in 5 years.

He uses a framework called "spawner strategy" that allows him to find multi-baggers early on.

I will explain everything you need to know: 🧵 Image 1. Paths to Multi-Baggers

There are five types of companies that become multi-baggers:

• Focused companies like McDonalds.
• Capital allocators like Berkshire.
• Cannibals that buyback a lot of stock.
• Deep value companies like turnarounds.

Fifth type is the spawners. Image
Jan 23 12 tweets 4 min read
Joel Greenblatt achieved 40% annual return from 1985 to 1995.

I spent 100+ hours reading all his public writings and watching his interviews.

Here, I will explain to you his framework in 10 simple steps: 🧵 Image 1/ Joel Greenblatt identifies three ways to achieve stellar returns:

• Staying small.
• Getting very lucky.
• Concentrating on a few stocks.

Greenblatt ran a concentrated portfolio of 6-8 stocks, picked based on what he calls "magic formula."
Jan 21 11 tweets 5 min read
Here are 10 best stocks to own next decade: 🧵

1. $AMZN

- Leder in e-commerce.
- Largest cloud provider.
- Third largest digital advertiser.

It has 31% market share in cloud which is expected to become a $2.3 trillion market by 2032. Digital advertising and e-commerce are also fast growing markets.

Must own stock.Image 2. $GOOG

- Leader in search.
- Fastest growing cloud business.
- Most valuable social media platform.

It's also one of the leading suppliers of LLMs. It generates 70% of its compute needs from its own chips so it's the least dependent company on Nvidia.

Trading at a discount. Image
Jan 19 21 tweets 6 min read
I used to think I was rational.

Then, I read Daniel Kahneman’s revolutionary book on behavioral economics.

It changed how I see the world.

Here are the 10 most harmful cognitive biases and how you can avoid them to succeed in investing: 🧵 Image 1. Confirmation Bias

If what we already know fits tightly with what we are presented with, we tend to easily accept the given information.

For instance, if your favorite color is blue and somebody tells you the best selling iPhone is the blue one, you tend to believe it.