Selective contrarian investor | The writer of the Capitalist-Letters newsletter read in +180 countries 👇🏼
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May 9 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
1/ $HIMS is going to create millionaires.
Revenues are exploding, margins are expanding and it's about to go international.
Here is why $HIMS is a great opportunity now: 🧵 2/ It's becoming the Amazon of healthcare.
It's clear that the management diligently studied the Amazon blueprint and they are now executing.
Just as Amazon, $HIMS built the customer base on generic products, and now expanding leveraging its distribution.
Hear from the CEO:
May 4 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
Warren Buffett is the best investor of all time.
Berkshire Hathaway returned 5,502,284% since 1964 while S&P 500 returned just 39,054%.
He has been giving free investing masterclass in Berkshire Hathaway annual meetings since 1970.
Here's his 10 best nuggets: 🧵 1. The most important thing is the moat.
You should find something that takes disproportionately higher market share than competitors.
It could be because of:
- Brand name
- Lower costs
- Unique product
Then, you have to evaluate whether it's durable.
May 1 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
$HIMS is the next big ecosystem business.
It's not just selling compounded medicine, but also leveraging its distribution network to become a full-service healthcare platform.
Here is why it's a 4x opportunity from here: 🧵 1/ Investors thought $HIMS was just a compounder.
They ditched the stock when GLP-1 shortage ended.
This is like buying Amazon stock in the early 2000s when a new Harry Potter book was to be released and ditching it afterwards.
Yet it was Amazon being built.
Same for $HIMS:
Apr 28 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
$SOFI train is about to take off.
They are about to reach 11 million members, they built a new loan platform business from scratch, and they are bringing back crypto trading.
Revenues will explode...
Here is my full $SOFI investment thesis: (Thread🧵) 1/ $SOFI is quickly becoming a one-stop shop for all financial services.
Most people still don't see that and disregard it as just a "lender."
They pioneered student loan refinancing, expanded to personal loans, mortgages, and investing products..
Here, hear it from the CEO:
Apr 27 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
$OSCR is a 5x opportunity everybody ignores.
Revenues are exploding, it has just become profitable, and it's trading at just 6 times 2027 earnings ⎯ and Michael Burry is buying too.
Here is why it's an asymmetric opportunity now: 🧵 1/ $OSCR is disrupting the US healthcare system.
The US has some of the best hospitals in the world.
Yet, Americans have lower life expectancy than the French, Germans, and Japanese...
This is because it's a very expensive health care system.
Hear from the $OSCR founder:
Apr 26 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
Mohnish Pabrai turned $1 million into $600 million in 10 years.
Even Charlie Munger gave him money to manage.
His strategy is simple ⎯ buy companies that can build new businesses. He calls this "spawner strategy."
Here's his updated philosophy: 🧵 1. There are only a few ways to 100x returns:
- Focused companies like McDonald's.
- Capital allocators like Berkshire.
- Cannibals that buy back a lot of stock.
- Deep value companies like turnarounds.
The fifth type is the spawners - it's also the most lucrative type.
Apr 25 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
$GOOG is the cheapest mega-cap stock now.
Search is still growing, cloud demand is exploding, and Waymo is gaining traction.
Here is my full investment thesis: 🧵 1/ $GOOG is still growing revenue in low-single digits despite all the headwinds.
It currently has 5 distinct revenue channels generating over $90 billion a quarter.
What's most amazing is that still a just 45% of this revenue comes from fast-growing segments.
It still has a long runway for growth.
Let me explain:
Apr 17 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
This man can see the future.
Ray Dalio predicted:
• Dotcom Bubble (2000)
• Great Financial Crisis (2008)
• Covid Bubble (2021)
Now he predicts something worse than all: End of the global monetary order.
Here is his latest warning: 1/ Ray Dalio predicted the 2008 Financial Crisis.
He saw:
- Debt holders weren't able to pay back.
- Interest rates were very low.
- Fed had to step in and buy assets.
This is how he positioned defensively and aggressively at the right time.
He now has another forecast...
Apr 11 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
Peter Lynch once said:
"If you spend 14 minutes a year thinking about economics, you have just wasted 12 minutes."
Here are his 10 investing principles to navigate uncertainty: 🧵 1/ "Look for what's simple, boring and consistent."
Best businesses are easy to understand by anybody.
You should be able to understand what they sell, how they sell it and how their financials are.
If you understand these, you don't freak out when the market crashes.
Apr 7 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
This man knows the market.
He predicted: 1) Dot-com Bubble (2000) 2) Great Recession (2008) 3) The COVID Bubble (2021)
Howard Marks just went on Bloomberg and said "tariffs are changing everything."
Here is his latest warning: 🧵 1/ This is the biggest change of sea since World War II.
After the war a regime of economic integration was deliberately picked to make countries interdependent to prevent another war.
This came to known as globalization.
Tariffs signs a step back from this regime.
Apr 5 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
Charlie Munger once said:
"When everybody goes insane, staying sane is your competitive advantage."
Here are 7 investing principles to navigate tough times: 🧵 1/ Buy exceptional businesses.
This is the best hedge you can ever have.
Best companies have:
- Simple business model.
- Durable competitive advantage.
- Honest and able management team.
When the business has all three and is trading attractively, you simply buy.
Apr 1 • 11 tweets • 6 min read
Market is close to a correction territory and the highest quality stocks are selling at discount.
Here are 10 undervalued foundational stocks to buy now: 🧵
1. $AMZN
The stock has gone nowhere since November 2021.
Meanwhile, it increased revenue by 50%, doubled profits and net margin. AWS growth is reaccelerating even though they remain supply constrained.
It'll grow free cash flow by more than 15% annually for the next decade, yet it's trading at just 17 times operating cash flow.
Great opportunity to double down now.2. $GOOG
Cheapest mega-cap stock by far.
Investors are overly pessimistic about the future of the search yet the search volume is increasing and so does commercial queries' share of search.
Gemini 2.5 Pro is the most advanced AI model yet and they haven't even started monetizing it properly.
Youtube has the largest share of screen time and Waymo is the only commercial robo-taxi business that is active in multiple cities.
17 times forward earnings is a bargain for such a quality business.
Mar 29 • 11 tweets • 6 min read
Market is giving away high quality companies at bargain prices in fear.
AWS is already the largest cloud provider in the world and its growth is reaccelerating despite supply constraints in data center capacity.
Its advertising business is also taking market share from Google and Meta. It'll keep growing double digits annually in the next 5-10 years to come.
E-commerce margins is also set for expansion as third party seller services is growing faster than direct sales.
It's going to print cash when it exits from capex supercycle.
Mar 24 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
1/ $AMD is at the edge of a bullish breakout.
Last time it bounced back from $90 levels, it went straight to all time highs with no catalyst.
This is repeating now and it's exploding data center revenue is a great catalyst.
Here is my $AMD investment thesis: 🧵 2/ You have to take a look at this:
Last time $AMD bounced back off $90 levels, it tripled in a matter of months.
This was without any catalyst.
Now the same event seems to repeat with a catalyst: Data center revenue growth.
Mar 18 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
1/ $TTD is my top growth stock pick now.
It's dominating advertising on the open internet.
The market massively discounts its future growth and runway at 30 times forward earnings.
Here is my full investment thesis: 🧵 2/ What does $TTD do?
It's a giant in programmatic advertising.
It's basically serving ads on the internet through auctions facilitated by ad exchanges and tracking the performance data to enhance performance of further biddings.
Here, CEO Jeff Green explains it:
Mar 16 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
1/ $GOOG is now the cheapest mega-cap stock.
It has the fastest growing cloud unit, the most efficient AI and a cash-cow advertising business.
The market grossly underestimates its potential at 18 times forward earnings.
Here is why $GOOG is a great opportunity now: 🧵 2/ $GOOG is still growing at a rapid pace despite its sheer size.
It's been growing revenue at 17% and net income at a staggering 25% CAGR in the last five years.
It's now discounted because the market believes the search will die.
This is not the case. Let me explain:
Mar 13 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
$AMZN is 2x opportunity from here.
It holds dominant position in cloud computing and e-commerce with quickly growing advertising business.
It's an asymmetric opportunity at 18 times operating cash flow.
Here is my $AMZN thesis: 🧵
1/ $AMZN holds oligopoly position in three fast growing markets:
- Cloud computing
- Digital advertising
- Retail e-commerce
Amazon generates +$50 billion revenue in all these markets.
What's better? All these markets are still growing fast.
Mar 11 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
Forget tariffs.
The real reason of the market crash is the unsustainable US budget deficit.
Let me explain: 🧵 1/ We saw something rare happen in late 2024.
Yields and market rates started to rally after the Fed cut rates in September.
Treasury yields rallied nearly 20% in the three months following fed cut rates.
Why did it happen?
Mar 10 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
1/ $TSM is a monopoly in advanced chip manufacturing.
Revenue is exploding and it's rapidly expanding the capacity. Yet, the stock is down 20% off its highs.
Trading at 19 times forward earnings, it's an asymmetric opportunity.
Here is my investment thesis: 🧵 2/ $TSM is rapidly expanding market share despite its already dominant position.
It expanded its foundry market share from 61% in Q4 2023 to 64% in Q3 2024.
When it comes to manufacturing of the most advanced chips, its market share goes above 85%.
Mar 5 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
$ASML is the strongest monopoly the market just ignores.
Its order book hit all time highs last quarter yet the stock got hammered down.
Here is my full investment thesis: 🧵 1/ What does $ASML do?
It's the sole manufacturer of Extreme-Ultraviolet Lithography Machines (EUVL) needed for manufacturing cutting edge chips.
In short these are the machines enabling foundries like TSMC to etch microscopic circuits on silicon.
Here is how they work:
Mar 4 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
Market is now at extreme fear territory and it's giving away many bargains.
Market leader in e-commerce and cloud computing trading at its lowest valuation in a decade. Given the growth estimates, its cloud business will alone generate over $360 billion revenue in 2030.
This is an invincible company the market is giving away because extreme fear.2. $GOOG
Its search volume is growing despite the fears and bulk of the search is now made up of commercial queries with high purchase intent. It also has the fastest growing cloud business and dominant video streaming platform.
Trading at its lowest valuation since early 2023 dips.