According to the CDC, there are a 170,731 excess deaths this year, and the data only goes through July 11th. cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr…
That was calculated by comparing with expected deaths. If you calculate against their maximum feasible deaths, you still get 139,910 deaths, which is still above the 127K recorded COVID deaths through July 11th.
This is not the only CDC data that shows that we have vastly under-reported COVID-19 deaths. Using an alternative approach, we can calculate excess deaths from just pneumonia and flu (that were not counted as COVID), compared to 2018.
The U.S seal's eagle faces to our left. On the Nazi logo, and the Trump/Pence eagle, it faces right.
The U.S. seal has a shield-shaped chest plate. The Nazi logo dangles a circle from it's claws, just as the Trump/Pence campaign logo does.
And sure, you could argue that "14 words" is a random coincidence. Until you notice the needless capitalizations that highlight two nearby capital "H"s. And the fact that the tweet is also exactly 88 characters.
Polls, like everything else, are hackable, and people have paid zero attention to this line of attack on our elections. I speculated a bit about this last October, but was focused on another potential issue (rerouting phone calls to prepared responders).
Trump doesn't know Parnas, but based on all the photographs flying around (thanks @SethAbramson), they've been photographed together at least TWELVE different times at at least EIGHT events.
@SethAbramson Where to start... where to start. Maybe farther back in time? This has been placed in 2014, and for later reference it is photo ONE of this thread.
(Note: I have a picture of Emin with Trump somewhere; same year, same hat)
@SethAbramson Here's one in front of an America-F1rst background, and Trump in a blue tie with pink strips. Unknown third person (Parnas' son?). Noe Trump Jr. in background. This is photo TWO, and also the second separate event.
The more I read over the heavily redacted page 338 and 339 from the IG report, the more it looks like a description of someone in the Trump administration providing illegally obtained information to a pro-Trump FBI agent.
Probably just confirmation bias.
I should probably back off of the "in the Trump administration" and weaken it at least to "associated with", as the pro-Trump Handling Agent referred to the connection as a "hobby" or "outside interest".
But this source provided something to the FBI that required additional justification during the IG investigation, and which was so inappropriate that there was an issue with simply storing it in FBI files.
I don't understand why Acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire isn't a bigger topic right now.
With the transcript out, they can (and apparently will) hang their hat on the defense that Trump's quid pro quo request was not insanely explicit.
But the one thing that nobody has denied is that DNI Maguire did not follow the law when he failed to transmit the whistleblower complaint to Congress.
I've said several times already that they're going to need to throw somebody under the bus for this, and that it will probably be Maguire. The problem here is that we all know that Trump ordered the blockage. Trump is Maguire's boss, and the only one that COULD order it.
And don't think for a minute that Rykov was an early name that turned into a non-story. He ran a large, well-funded, well-organized campaign to promote Trump in Russian media.
He simply has no direct connection to the campaign, so he's not in the news right now.
But he played a critical role. We know that he sponsored a book about Trump. Hired Katasonova as a provacateur. Marshalled dozens of bloggers and news people in creating pro-Trump content in Russian. Worked with Putin's lackeys Malofeev and Dugin.
It's impossible to perfectly predict the future, but based on how things have gone so far, we can guess at how the next chapter in this drama is most likely to go. This is one guess, and it should have a disurbingly familiar feel to it.
The Mueller report is released in a pure enough form to actually know what's in it.
The Democratic leadership is horrified. There is much news.
The GOP fights back with what has worked perfectly up until now: "So what?"
@jpanzer Yes it only appears on the 23rd. It was accessed from one of the two alfa banks servers that had all the other accesses (96.15) 18 times, and 12 times from a previously unseen alfa bank address (97.137). This does look like hand checks after reporting.
@jpanzer But as I look more closely this is interesting. The lookups as logged are grouped in clusters of four (or three at the end there) all occurring at the same time. Why would hand lookups be grouped like that?
@jpanzer I suppose if it was trying multiple DNS servers at the same time but they were really multiple addresses for the same DNS server, you might see that. Still seems odd.
Also those lookups have gaps of a couple minutes, which really suggests caching wasn't happening.
So this is a graph of a portion of the DNS lookup date, where Alfa bank computers (red and blue) and a Spectrum computer (green) were looking up "mail1 dot trump-email dot com".
Each row is one day, sliced into two minute slots, and each bar is the number of lookups in that slot.
I'd previously done plots like this in black and white without differentiating between the source machine. One thing that jumps out at me is the two Alfa Bank systems are acting as if they are a single machine.
[Big zig-zag, but I promise its related:]
There's this idea that religion has fostered many conflicts and wars in our history. It's a misguided notion.
War comes from power. Each and every conflict where religion led to war, it happened because religion was the dominant power.
Historically religion-as-power-structure was the norm. But gradually, governments became more powerful than religions, and our modern understanding of war is government versus government. But really, that's just how power is concentrated these days. Or was.
Did we already uncover a Secret Russian Backchannel?
This thread will have some unreported and underreported information in it, especially near the end. It was inspired by Rachel @maddow's excellent reporting on Trump's knowledge of Russian propaganda, which starts here: msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/…