Okay, poll watchers. It's time for a come-to-democracy talk. This shit is getting more out of hand every day, and no one should be applauding the direction non-stop polling and ungrounded punditry is taking us in. A long (but hopefully entertaining and illuminating) thread. /1 I think it's important to set the table properly before wrapping up the tablecloth--along with the dishes, cutlery, and the half-full glasses of wine, too--and chucking the whole mess in the trash. First off, what is an opinion poll? /2

Here are links to a few of my "rant threads." These are threads I wrote at various points to get something out of my system, mostly dealing with issues around politics, communication, and democracy. Have at 'em. More added as I dig them up. On Pierre and his approach to the media and democratic discourse, generally.

https://x.com/timabray/status/1728087608163475912

This. This is not democratic discourse. This is schoolyard fabulation. When grown ups use their political office to spread this kind of unadulterated bullshit the real victim is the institutions that keep our democracy glued together. This is an attack on our system. /1 My doctoral research examined the effects of attack advertising on voters. The good news is this kind of attack hurts the messenger. Most voters hate this stuff. The bad news is that it also erodes confidence in the system. It makes voters want to walk away. That’s not good. /2

I know shouldn’t be, but I am constantly amazed at the lengths some power-hungry people will go to to mislead and manipulate the public conversation. He is counting on people not ever actually reading the ruling (which most won’t). Spoiler: it doesn’t vindicate the occupiers. /1 The ruling is an indictment of government’s failure to properly deal with the occupation (no surprise to those of us who lived through it). But the ruling also eviscerates the occupiers, saying unequivocally that they stepped far beyond the bounds of acceptable protest. /2

God almighty. This story does a deep disservice to Canadians. It’s poor journalism and contributes to the steady erosion of our system by giving space and oxygen to disinformation campaigns designed to increase Canadians’ dissatisfaction with their system of government. /1

https://twitter.com/globepolitics/status/1740419731952439447

There is nothing blatantly inaccurate in the story. It’s factually correct. But it leverages an important misunderstanding that opposition parties have been pounding away with for years now: the current political arrangement in Ottawa IS NOT a coalition, for the love of god. /2

Some things people need to understand about Pierre's approach to scrums. First, it takes enormous ego and boundless disdain to confidently pursue his approach. Most people would wither under the stress of playing the game he is playing. They would worry about looking the fool. /1 They would worry about getting caught out. Choking. Ruining their good name, forever. Not him. He pushes into these scenarios with relish. He enjoys the obvious confusion and discomfort it causes. But you should know: it's actually very cowardly. Here's why: /2

This dipshit held my neighbourhood hostage for three weeks because he fundamentally doesn’t understand… anything. He’s a TikTok minor celebrity who let “likes” go to his head and fill it with grandiose visions of insurrection and various other dangerous idiocies. What a world. It’s going to be a lot of this, isn’t it? “I don’t know. I wasn’t really involved. I didn’t like the memorandum. I mostly just walked around. I have no idea why anything at all happened.” What is the point of this?

Just tried called you @CBCOntarioToday. Having Kory on to talk about this issue is outrageous. The amount of disinformation you are allowing to foul the air is unbelievable. He needs to be challenged by someone who knows what they are talking about. He is just shilling the government line. He is not educating your audience at all. He is simply pushing government talking points and you are giving him free reign to use you. Shocking. Truly shocking.

The news has been full of challenging political news lately. But I want to take a moment to focus on a story that dominated for a day but really deserves much more scrutiny: the move to enhance mayoral powers in Toronto and Ottawa. Short version: it's really bad for democracy. /1 I'll be really clear: the "strong Mayor" (SM) system is nothing more than a strategy to circumvent democratic principles and hand significant power to wealthy minority interests. It does this by emulating one of the worst aspects of our fed/prov system: exaggerated majorities. /2

What the hell was that, @cbcasithappens? Since when is repeating a politically illiterate, deliberately inflammatory, disinformative, CPC talking point as a question fair game? I am livid. /1 What the hell was Robyn Bresnahan thinking? Seriously. Do you need remedial lessons in how Parliamentary systems work? I’d be happy to provide a tutorial to help out. Any time. Because you can’t be doing that again. Do not mislead Canadians about our political arrangements. /2

The list of bad news is getting more and more ridiculous. And now we have @fordnation engaging in full on nepotism, appointing his deeply underqualified nephew as the Minister of Citizenship and Multiculturalism. This is not a small thing. And I speak from experience. /1 As a former Press Secretary to an Ontario Citizenship Minister, I assure you this move has nothing to do with caring for the needs of newly settled Ontario residents nor nurturing a more diverse province and opening doors for diverse cultures. It’s about partisan recruitment. /2

Watching At Issue from last night… I’m really surprised at @elamin88 carrying water for Poilievre. While it is true he has been pounding the rage button for months, giving him credit for anything other than rage farming is deeply irresponsible. /1 It’s one thing to say he has hit a nerve. It’s a whole other thing to say that he has been right. He absolutely, unequivocally has not been. But he has supplied a dangerous, convenient narrative. /2

This is a candidate for Ottawa City Council. A deeply unethical candidate for council. He is engaging in a practice known as “push polling.” It is illegal in federal elections, for good reason. /1

https://twitter.com/_BrandonRussell/status/1539698511205339136

Push polling is the practise of soliciting opinions from voters using an unbalanced or skewed sampling approach. That’s polite talk for cooking the books. This is particularly disgusting because he is then publishing it as a “poll,” a word that has very specific meaning. /2

Seriously, @ottawacity? The collection folks just get worse and worse. They throw the containers everywhere, damaging them regularly, and fail to even bother to take the contents with them. I’ve had it. @cmckenney And yes, I reported it to 311.

Thank you, @cbcallinaday Alan! Your contributor needs to be admonished for pretending the pandemic is over. You gently corrected her but, really, that should not be happening. It’s misinformation to say, on air, that the pandemic is over. Infuriating. Get. This. Problem. Fixed. Just fire her, please. Now she is dismissing legitimate safety concerns about being in the downtown during a “protest” brought by the same people who held the city hostage for three weeks as “psychological.” This dismissive obliviousness is just too much.

Okay, Ontario. We need to talk about voter turnout. And we need to talk about the role of campaign strategy, constant polling, and horse race/infotainment journalism. Fewer than half of eligible voters showed up. And that is neither normal nor good enough. Spicy 🧵 alert. /1 With a few ballots still left to count, the numbers look like they will settle in somewhere between 44 and 45%. That’s about four points lower than the previous all time low of 48%. That makes this the least participated-in election in Ontario history. /2

I’ve held off for a couple days to let the sickly sweet weirdness of Wednesday’s Conservative leadership debate dissipate a little but I think it’s important to clear something up (well, many things but I’ll start with one). Let’s talk about Freedom of Expression (speech). /1 For a guy fixated on freedom, Poilievre is really struggling with the concept. His policy positions make it clear he has it upside down and backwards. The point of this freedom is to keep government from censoring the population and preserve the right to dissent. /2

Apropos of nothing except watching the nearly unwatchable CPC leadership debate… Poilievre told a heck of a fib (I know, long list) when he said he represents a “diverse riding in a major Ontario city.” Yeah, no. For those who don’t know Ottawa, consider this a public service… Ottawa’s boundaries are huge. It encompasses large swaths of farmland and open countryside, dotted with small, formerly independent communities (e.g., Metcalfe). That’s Poilievre’s riding. Farms and country dwellers. And there’s nothing wrong with that. At all.

So, I feel like David's tweet required a follow-up. What the heck did I say that shifted his view about this stuff? It's really straightforward, actually, and lots of it is nothing that the 338 doesn't disclose, itself. But here, in short, is the goods. /1

https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1521862598567903232

The 338 is a project rooted in complex system mapping and probability. At it's heart, it is a statistical model. It's founder does a great job of laying out and being transparent about his methodology. You can find it here: 338canada.blogspot.com/2018/11/welcom… /2

All day, I've been watching the storm of justified outrage and horror at the leaked draft opinion from the US Supreme Court, on Roe v Wade. I am not a lawyer, but I know a bit about democratic theory. And John Locke would not be amused with Justice Alito's attack on privacy. 🧵/1 First: what has privacy got to do with this? Privacy is the basis for Alito's (and other Originalists) attack on women's autonomy rights in this case. For a good, clear legal rundown on this point check out @a_h_reaume's solid thread:

https://twitter.com/a_h_reaume/status/1521316453944758273?s=20&t=K-qpf0ep46ynKKRi1eWWpg

/2

The level of illiteracy on display today regarding our system of government is (sadly) unsurprising but, nonetheless, disturbing. Particularly among members of the media (only because they should know better and should be making strong efforts to be accurate and impartial). /1 First: use words correctly. They have meaning. Until I see an NDP member sitting in Cabinet, this is not a coalition. Our government works this way: Cabinet sets the agenda, controls the use and application of existing Ministerial power, introduces legislation. /2