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Tim Lord Profile picture
Tim Lord
@timbolord
Energy and climate stuff, mainly. Head of Climate Change @HSBC_UK. Previously @institutegc, @beisgovuk. Views my own.
Oct 25, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Rishi Sunak has a few other things on his mind, but BEIS published a document yesterday which should be in his in-tray: updated UK emissions projections from now to 2040. (1/n)
gov.uk/government/pub… Short version is: there is a big gap between the UK’s carbon targets, and what we’re on track to achieve. New Net Zero Strategy, due by March next year, needs to set out how we’ll close the gap.

Longer version below… (2/n)
Jul 7, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
A little story relevant to today’s results.

Back in 2014, I was in the government team implementing the CfD. The debate at the time was whether to use administered pricing (i.e. contracts allocated at a fixed price set by government), or move to auctions with price competition. But we were concerned that was missing one of the key advantages of the CfD – i.e. using competition to drive down prices.

Some of the key players in the sector were up for introducing competition. But a significant chunk weren’t.
Jun 23, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Excellent read on the relationship between BEIS and HMT. A couple of thoughts I'd add... 1 - the nature of HMT isn't immutable. Over the last decade we've had a series of chancellors who wanted tight control of domestic policy and have/had a deep scepticism in the ability of active government policy to deliver growth. HMT has been very good at delivering for them.
Apr 5, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Reviews are generally undertaken to either: (a) give cover for changing policy; (b) give cover for *not* changing policy; or (c) play for time and maximise room for manoeuvre.

I think this announcement leans towards (c) with a bit of (b), for four reasons: 1: the letter focuses only on "new" (post-2019) evidence - and in doing so assumes the 2019 decision was the right one at the time.

If keen to change policy, language would have been more open.
Apr 1, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
The UK energy market does not work for consumers: a short story...

I moved house this week, so had to sort out my energy supply. The supplier is one of the (former) big 6. No need to call when moving house, you can do it all via the website.

Problem 1: the only tariff they offered me was a 12 month fix, priced well above the price cap.
Mar 15, 2022 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
This is a very good question – a few thoughts on why energy efficiency is always the poor relation of energy policy, based on things that I’ve heard ministers* say when considering energy efficiency policy internally.

*Including Con, Lab, LD – all raised similar concerns. “Why should the government pay for it?”.

Lots of energy efficiency pays back in a relatively short period (i.e. savings outweigh upfront costs). So ministers who are allocating within very tight budgets often think that people should pay for it themselves.
Jan 13, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Rough calculation of how much extra we're paying for energy as a result of policy changes 2013-15:
-Onshore wind ban: extra £1.8bn
-Lower cavity wall / loft insulation: £2bn*
-Zero Carbon Homes cancellation: £0.1bn

So wasting approx £3.9bn/year, or £140/household**. *Assumes insulation continued at peak rate till all lofts/cavities insulated; only measures with short payback periods (~5yrs or less) included. Likely underestimate as based on savings at current price cap.
**Not all savings evenly distributed (some would save less, some more)
Jan 13, 2022 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
Remember when the government effectively banned onshore wind because of backbench pressure?

My rough estimate is that, with gas prices as high as they now are, that decision could be costing consumers equivalent of around £60/year (equal to total VAT paid on energy bills). Peak onshore wind deployment per year was about 1.7 gigawatts in 2017. But following the moratorium, deployment declined massively.
Jan 12, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Interesting story this morning on UK climate policy: Friends of the Earth and ClientEarth seeking Judicial Review of the government's net zero strategy - arguing that it doesn't meet the requirements of the Climate Change Act. (1/x) theguardian.com/environment/20… Their argument seems to be based on section 14 of the Act, which requires that Ministers bring forward "policies and proposals" to ensure carbon budgets will be met "as soon as reasonably practicable" after they were set.
Jan 11, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
As the government is reportedly considering this bad idea for cutting bills, how about this for a better one: permanently remove green levies from bills, and fund it with a frequent flyer levy. Green levies mainly pay for early renewables projects, and fall almost entirely on the electricity bill - meaning our lowest carbon form of energy faces the highest decarbonisation costs.
Nov 17, 2021 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
Energy bill increase next April now estimated to be ~40% compared to the current price cap. That is a massive problem, even compared to where we are now – 🧵on the scale of the issue and possible policy responses. First problem is that many people will face a rise of much more than 40% year-on-year. Take this example:
-until end Sept, fixed price deal: £1000/year
-now, fixed price deal expired and on price cap: £1277/year
-40% increase in April: £1787/year.
So rise is 79% in 7 months.
Nov 8, 2021 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
While media coverage of @ukonward report on public attitudes to net zero has largely focused on the line that “public care about climate but don’t want to pay more”, I think there’s a couple of more interesting stories under the bonnet… 1⃣The extent to which climate concern is embedded across the electorate (age, party affiliation, region etc) is striking – we found similar in our Polls Apart report in March.
institute.global/policy/polls-a…
Oct 19, 2021 • 24 tweets • 5 min read
I know no one on climate / energy Twitter has mentioned it, but the Net Zero Strategy is out. Some thoughts based on a first read...
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… Two things to say by way of context:

First, extraordinary how far we’ve come, and how quickly.

When the Clean Growth Strategy was published in 2017, it had a strong claim to being the most comprehensive climate strategy in the world.
Oct 18, 2021 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
A few thoughts re reports on what we know so far on the Heat and Buildings Strategy, and what to look out for when published tomorrow… The good: focus on energy efficiency, electrification of heat and heat networks in 2020s is the right approach; some additional funding, focused on those on low incomes but with incentives for the (relatively) wealthier to switch; clear signal of intent to phase out gas boilers.
Oct 18, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Would this be a good move to deal with rising energy costs? A couple of thoughts… (TLDR: no) Cost: a bit over £1.5bn per year.

Savings: equivalent to about £60 per household per year (£5/month).

Biggest beneficiaries would be people in big houses, who tend to be wealthier. Those people already spend less of their income on energy.
Sep 29, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Focus for now is rightly on the short-term problems in the energy market - but bigger challenges are coming.

Thoughts here (with @PhillMcNally) on the need for fundamental reform of UK energy markets as we transition to net zero.
institute.global/policy/energy-… Our energy markets are structured around centralised generation which can flex output, has low capital costs and high running costs; and consumers with limited ability or incentive to flex their demand.
Sep 28, 2021 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
One of the main arguments from climate action sceptics on the energy crisis has been that we should extract more shale gas.

So if we take that argument at face value – is it plausible, and would it make much difference?

A thread… Let’s assume for these purposes that we don’t care about the climate impacts of increasing gas dependence – all we are worried about is increasing gas security and reducing UK exposure to price spikes in international markets.
Sep 27, 2021 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
Petrol shortages are getting the headlines, but the UK’s gas/electricity retail crisis isn’t going away – a couple of thoughts on what to look out for in the next few days and weeks… Image First, the position on the Supplier of Last Resort (SoLR - whereby Ofgem appoints a new supplier for the customers of failed suppliers).
Sep 27, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Labour's commitment to £28bn/year of net zero investment (£224bn to 2030) is big/good news - four points I'd highlight... 1⃣ Today's commitment (left) is very similar in scale to that made in the 2019 manifesto (right), although it rightly has more emphasis on crowding in private investment. Hard for the left to argue that it's inadequate.
Sep 24, 2021 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
This is potentially big news – but we’ve been up and down the hill so many times on new nuclear that it's hard to say if this is internal Whitehall positioning or a sign of real progress.

Thread on nuclear, net zero, and the UK…
thetimes.co.uk/article/multib… Net zero will require a lot more electricity generation, and for all (or virtually all) of that electricity generation to be zero carbon by around 2035. CCC anticipate electricity demand more than doubling between 2020 and 2050.
Sep 23, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Leaving to one side the question of whether Kermit the Frog is a well-judged reference point for a major speech at UNGA... seems to me that "it's easy being green" is the wrong framing for net zero. Those wanting to delay action argue it's all too hard / expensive so we shouldn't try. The obvious response to that is "don't worry, it's easy".