Chinese stocks are currently flying.

If you want to make money on the stock maket you need to understand market sentiment.

Here is a how I lost thousands of dollars on Chinese stocks even when the companies I invested in were fantastic. The last few years, Chinese stocks have taken a beating.

Take Alibaba for example, which once traded at about $300 per share but until recently was worth well under $100.

1/18 To analyse the impact of Starlink on Econet Wireless Zimbabwe (EWZ) we first need a recap of the telecommunications (telco) business model in its simplest form.

Let's unpack this and then later how Starlink comes in.

The telco business model is made up of four key sequential, simultaneous, and repeating cycles.

🏦 Borrow 🛰️ Build 🤳 Sell 🤝 Service.

This is a simplification but let me explain each cycle and then illustrate with MTN. 2/18 The first thing telcos need to do is BORROW because telecoms is a capital-intensive business and so self-funding is difficult.

Once you've borrowed, you BUILD (and maintain) the network and infrastructure that people will use (think base stations, etc.).

After that, you SELL people access to the network so they can make calls and use data etc. and with the sales you generate profits.

Then, with those profits, you SERVICE the loans (i.e., pay back the banks) and since you've serviced the loans, you can then BORROW more money, and the cycle repeats.

1. This is a company you need to watch.

TDW is shaking up Zimbabwe's property industry with millions in USD revenue, over 70% annual growth, and hundreds of homes built.

Let's unpack, the property industry, why TDW is growing so fast and the company's potential and risks.

🧵 2. Troika Design Workshop (TDW) is an architectural design studio that also owns a property development business called Turnbury Property Developers.

The company was founded in 2015 and is run by a team of young professionals with an average age of 33.

1. Truworths filed for corporate rescue last week, meaning the company that made millions just over 10 years ago now can't pay its bills.

There will be many winners and losers.

Let’s unpack the losers, starting with Mega Market - one of the most fascinating companies in Zim. 2. If you are in Zimbabwe and don’t know Mega Market, you should pay attention.

It is one of the most interesting private companies in the country.

It is run by 38-year-old entrepreneur Shiraan Ahmed and is based primarily out of Mutare, breaking the conventional Harare bias.

OK Zimbabwe’s results were recently released, and sales went up by 29% but also went down by 29%!

Confusing?

OK's is a great case study in how you can analyse financial performance.

Let's unpack OK's Results “The Good, The Bad and The Confusing”

🧵 THREAD🧵 Let’s start with the confusing.

Normally, if you have a business selling item X. If you sell 29% more units of X, you expect the sales in monetary terms to be about 29% more.

In this case it is the complete opposite. Why?

Hyperinflation accounting.

1/12 Entrepreneurs and business owners.

Here is a wild story about how FedEx's Founder kept the company going when it couldn't pay its bills.

This may just encourage you. Let's unpack. 🧵 2/12 The year is 1973, and FedEx is making some progress but also racking up huge losses, so much so that the people who backed it when it was founded in 1971 now have doubts about the business.

1. Wondering why Econet has been having network issues lately?

Dive into Part 2 of this series, where we unpack Econet's financial rollercoaster over the past decade and how it has impacted you.

Here is the untold story about Econet's struggles.

Let’s Unpack!

🧵 THREAD 🧵 2. To recap in Part 1 we talked about how the Telco model revolves around four sequential and simultaneous cycles: Borrow, Build, Sell, and Service.

If you missed Part 1, I recommend quickly reading through it where I explain in detail. It will only take 3 minutes.

https://twitter.com/166012451/status/1775565476535669231

1/25 What has happened to Econet?

10yrs ago Econet had its best-ever year with revenues of $753mn and profit of $194mn.

Since then revenue & profits have dropped & recently Econet had major network issues.

What's up? Is Econet still a good business?

Let's unpack!

🧵THREAD🧵 2/25 To analyse Econet we need to take a step back and try to break down the telecommunications (telco) business model in its simplest form.

We will also use MTN in South Africa as a reference point.

Zimplats generated over $1 billion in profits in the last 3 years but yesterday they announced a plan for job cuts.

Why do such successful companies still need to cut jobs?

Let's unpack.

🧵 THREAD 🧵 To understand the driver of job cuts we need to start with the foundation of any business, the profit equation:

Revenue - Expenses = Profit.

When a business struggling, it must either increase revenue, reduce expenses, or do both.

Simbisa Brands recently released their results, and it seems they know something about Zimbabwe that most people don't.

Simbisa is investing heavily in a way that may be surprising but could set them up to dominate in the future.

Let's unpack.

🧵 THREAD 🧵 Background: Simbisa Brands is a fast-food operator that owns, operates and franchises a selection of well-known Quick Service Restaurant brands in 9 African Markets.

These brands include Pizza Inn and Chicken Inn, and Nandos and Steers of South Africa.

1/28 Beyond the Headlines: The Untold Story Behind Deloitte's Zimbabwe Exit.

While Deloitte's departure from Zimbabwe made headlines, understanding the events requires digging into recent history to uncover the full story behind the news.

Let's unpack!

🧵 THREAD🧵 2/28 Last week Deloitte Zimbabwe announced it was leaving the Deloitte network.

This must have been a tough decision.

Deloitte is one of the biggest brands in the world and it comes with one of the best reputations.

And for accounting firms, reputation is everything.

1/12 When people say "Africa Is Poor Because People Are Too Religious" I always think of 👇🏾

The Connection Between a "Pastor" And The Birth Of The Swiss Watch Industry. 🕰️

The success of Rolex and many others can partly be attributed to the impact of John Calvin.

🧵 THREAD 🧵 2/12 Today Switzerland dominates the luxury watch market. If you Google "Top 10 Watch Brands", all the brands that come up are Swiss except for the German A. Lange & Söhne.

But this wasn't always the case & one of the most important shifts was due to the theologian John Calvin.

1/24 The End of EcoCash Holdings: A Case Study for Entrepreneurs On The Importance of Focus

When EcoCash (Cassava Smartech) was listed in 2018 its share price was $1.49 today its share price is ~$0.70

How could a company set up for success struggle?

Let's Unpack!

🧵THREAD 🧵 2/24 Background: EcoCash Holdings will likely transfer all its businesses except for Steward Bank to Econet thereby marking the end of EcoCash Holdings as we know it today.

This also effectively reverses the demerger that occurred 5 years ago.

1/23 Recently, EcoCash Holdings announced it is in negotiations to transfer certain assets to Econet Wireless.

This is big news but with very little detail available.

What assets are they talking about?

Let’s unpack!

🧵 THREAD 🧵 2/23 The start of this was cautionary announcements from both “Econets” on 16 January 2024 stating that they were in negotiations for the transfer of "some non-banking assets" in exchange for shares.

1/24 Ziyanda vs Fieldbar: A case study for entrepreneurs on turning ideas into businesses.

In 2018, two companies set out to create fresh African luxury products.

Both had great ideas, but only one succeeded.

Why did Fieldbar succeed but Ziyanda disappoint?

🧵THREAD🧵 2/24 Fieldbar has become a huge success with its cooler box so popular that it has been sold out for weeks and they can't meet demand.

However, in 2018 when both businesses were starting the bigger buzz was around Ziyanda Appliances.

1/20 Amazon Coming to South Africa is Good News for Takealot but Bad News for MultiChoice, DStv's owners

Recently, I wrote about why Amazon's Online Store could be good news for Takealot.

However, there is one business that should be concerned — DStv.

Here's why.

🧵THREAD🧵 2/20 DStv, which is owned by MultiChoice Group (MCG), needs no introduction.

Launched in 1995, it's the biggest TV service in Africa by some distance.

To simplify things, I will use the MultiChoice Group and DStv interchangeably as more people are familiar with the name DStv.

1/23 Truworths And Edgars Were Never Clothing Retailers

They were more like banks with a side business of selling clothes.

Understanding how to identify this can help you save your business from sudden failure and find your biggest opportunities!

🧵 THREAD 🧵 2/23 People tend to describe companies based on the products they sell. E.g. If I sell paint, I am a paint manufacturer. The problem is sometimes the visible product or service is not actually what drives the economics of the business.

1/19 The fascinating connection between Metro Peech & Browne's (MP&B) Collapse and Truworths.

At the heart of it is a intriguing company run by a 37-year-old entrepreneur, that seems to be steadily gaining in influence.

Let's unpack!

🧵 THREAD 🧵 2/19 Recap: Sahara Capital Group (SSCG) acquired MP&B's assets for $5.2 million, positioning them as winners in the aftermath of MP&B's collapse.

MP&B's creditors were the losers, but the situation could have been much worse without the successful deal with SSCG.

1/17 Updated Post: Sub-Sahara Capital just closed a deal for Metro Peech & Browne.

Let's unpack the details of the deal and the winners and losers.

Part 1 is on Sub-Sahara Capital Group, who I think was a big winner. 2/17 Sub-Sahara Capital Group (SSCG) is an investment firm often associated with Innscor due to a close working relationship, despite not having common shareholders.

Importantly, SSCG controls the wholesaler Gain Cash & Carry, while also maintaining other diverse investments.

1/18 Sub-Sahara Capital just closed a deal for Metro Peech & Browne.

Let's unpack the details of the deal and the winners and losers.

Part 1 is on Sub-Sahara Capital Group, who I think was a big winner. 2/18 Sub-Sahara Capital Group (SSCG) is an investment firm affiliated with Innscor through common shareholders.

Most importantly, they are also invested in the wholesaler Gain Cash & Carry, but they also have a broad interest in many other companies (see below).

1/16 How is TM Pick n Pay doing compared to OK?

This is a question often asked, especially when discussing how OK has been struggling.

If Pick n Pay is also struggling as much, then maybe formal retail is dead.

I dug through both their financials, and this is what I found. 2/16 First thing to compare is trading volumes which is the best approximation of sales. We can compare these as both companies have similar year ends.

Both companies have been impacted by rise of informal traders however TM PnP less so with volumes up +2% vs OK down -8%. 🤯