A crucial but less discussed element of the immigration story is exactly when and precisely why legal visas exploded in number. The below table (from the OBR) tells all. It was just after Brexit, and because Boris Johnson’s government brought in a new points based system
(1/3) A system, first designed and implemented in Australia, specifically to increase immigration. Johnson - who loved the policy and campaigned for the Tory leadership on it - was warned it would mushroom numbers (in this story for example, plus others)
(2/3)
thesun.co.uk/news/9382272/b…

One hundred years ago today, George Mallory and Sandy Irvine disappeared while attempting to become the first men to climb Mount Everest. They were last seen at 12.50pm as two moving dots through a telescope just 800 feet from the summit, and “going strong for the top” 1/ What happened to these two extraordinary men remains mountaineering's greatest mystery, and their indomitable spirit still inspires many. They wanted to climb Everest "because it's there", as George said. "The struggle is the struggle of life itself, upward and forever upward" 2/

Explosive evidence from Johnny Mercer to the Afghan inquiry today + a major new headache now for Grant Shapps / No10. Accuses ex-Director of Special Forces Roly Walker and Army head Mark Carleton-Smith of concealing information over whether the SAS executed 33 unarmed Afghans (1) Mercer says Walker and Carleton-Smith (both ex-SAS) allowed him to mislead the Commons by effectively telling him there was nothing to see when they were aware of secret email chains. “I am angry with these people. They did not do their job. I was being gamed the entire time" (2)

Kemi Badenoch interview on tonight’s @TheNewsDesk - on the tone of the contest, she tells us: “I don't think it's got nasty actually. I do think that we're just having the arguments which we've all been having behind closed doors just in front of everyone else”. Says she WOULD delay hitting net zero carbon emissions by 2050 if there is no workable plan to meet it: “Yes, there are circumstances where I would delay it, but I think that the target itself is a bit of a red herring. We need to look at the plan…

A Ukraine/Arsenal thread:

Oleg “The Horse” Luzhny was a tough right back who won the double with Arsenal in 2002. Much loved by supporters and players alike, he was nicknamed The Horse because of his galloping charges up the wing and, well, because he was hung like one (1) Oleg is Ukrainian, and the first player from his country to win a major trophy in England. He is 53 now, and hasn’t played for Arsenal for 19 years. In solidarity, the club again included him in today’s squad for its home game against Leicester, under his old shirt number 22 (2)

Rumours abounding of an imminent Quad meeting to discuss imposing Plan B as early as tomorrow morning, meaning Working From Home and covid passports for large venues. One source tells me it's "85% likely". Let's see. One helluva dead cat. I've put this to Downing Street, who have not denied it. No10 source simply says "no decisions have been made".

FCDO's head, Sir Philip Barton, admits it was a mistake for him to remain on holiday through out the Afghan crisis. He only returned to work on August 26, 11 days after Kabul fell. Tells FAC: "I have reflected a lot. If I had my time again, I would have come back earlier”. This is the first time Barton has revealed the date he returned to the Foreign Office. The last US military flight left Kabul on August 30, meaning Sir Philip stayed on holiday through almost the whole of the desperate three week airlift. This is simply staggering.

Raab at FAC: asked why he didn't do more to build a new coalition to replace the US in Afghanistan? A key question. Raab evades saying what personal efforts he made to insist it was never doable anyway. “Nobody was going to backfill the capacity that the US provided”. Raab goes on to say Afghanistan has effectively been a failed mission for years. "At what point did we last have the military objectives identified and the exit strategy to achieve them?" Once it's realised it's a mission without end, the decision must be to pull out, he argues.

Dominic Raab appears before the Foreign Affairs Committee at 2pm tomorrow for a special session. Bitterly criticised for FCDO as well as personal failings, the bottom line is the Afghanistan debacle was on his watch so he will be fighting for his job. Here's what to expect (1) Many of the questions MPs will put to Raab were put to Boris Johnson when Parliament was recalled, but still remain unanswered. They split into three parts. 1. The Past, and the almost total failure to prepare for the US pull out despite years of warning. Could the UK...(2)

Commons recall debate on Afghanistan: MPs will now sit for an extra 3 hours until 5pm today, as so many want to speak. PM immediately bombarded with interventions. Asked by Tobias Ellwood whether he will agree to an independent inquiry into UK’s involvement in Afghanistan? Johnson signals no - “many of the questions have already been answered” - to heckles of anger from MPs on both sides.

Boris Johnson's statement to a recalled Parliament tomorrow on Afghanistan is a very big moment. He has huge calls to make overnight to define UK foreign policy in light of Biden's 'America First' paradigm shift. I've talked to MPs. Here are 8 questions they want him to answer: 1. What historical perspective will the PM overlay on why the 20 year mission ended in catastrophe? There is bitter Cabinet disagreement. Ben Wallace’s sadness over the West failing Afghanistan, or Dominic Raab’s proposition that nation building was long doomed?

Some interesting other measures in the Govt's Step 4 policy document that the PM didn't announce: QR codes will continue in pubs / restaurants, and if you're pinged you will still have to isolate - but premises will no longer be forced to display them, just "encouraged" to. There is also a big safety net. Rather than irreversible, the roadmap is actually very reversible. Govt quietly reserving the right to impose "economic and social restrictions at a local, regional or national level" if NHS capacity is threatened. Local authority powers also kept.

No10 press conference, Big Bang reopening at Step 4 confirmed. A summary:
- Almost all legal restrictions will end, and guidance will be moved to advisory
- No limits on social contact, no capacity limits at venues, all remaining businesses can reopen, including nightclubs - Government's domestic vaccine passports scheme not going ahead
- No legal requirement for covid certification to enter any mass events
- Businesses / venues / grounds can voluntarily adopt a vaccine passport regime, and use the NHS app
- 1 Metre Plus rule scrapped

Interesting conversations with two different ministers tonight. Both support PM’s caution in unlocking this far, but have serious concerns about how the July 19 delay now plays out. They (individually) make the point that cases + hospitalisations and, to a lesser extent, deaths… …will rise further now sharply, and still be rising in 4 weeks time, but hopefully with a slower rate of incline once more second doses kick in. But they fear the PM will come under huge pressure from the CMO/CSA, Labour and opinion polls, not to unlock when numbers are still…

PM's G7 press conefrece to start a few minutes early, at 1.55, to avoid the 2pm England kick off clash. Listen live on @TimesRadio (while watching the game on telly with the sound down?) Press conference: Boris Johnson appears to concede his target of 1 billion doses directly donated by the G7 has fallen short. Some are instead "via funding to covax".

The spectacularly big row over whether to allow Australian agriculture zero tariffs in a trade deal - as per @pmdfoster and @GeorgeWParker's top scoop today - is now engulfing at least half the Cabinet. I learn however that George Eustice has a plan to end the stand off (1) Eustice, who wants to protect UK farmers from being under cut, will tell Liz Truss he will accept zero tariffs but NOT zero quotas. Instead, flashpoint Australian imports, such as beef and lamb, must have annual caps, or TRQs (tariff rate quotas) as they're known (2)

Matt Hancock reveals there are now 2,323 cases of the Indian variant of covid across the UK. Almost doubled in four days, since the 1,300 on Thursday. 483 of those cases in Bolton and Blackburn alone. Hancock rams it home to the vaccine hesitant: “Look at what has happened in Bolton: those who chose not to have the jab have ended up in hospital, some of them in intensive care. Vaccines save lives, Mr Speaker".

Oxford’s Emeritus Professor of Medicine Sir John Bell tells T&G nobody should go on a foreign holiday this summer: “I don't think anybody's going on a holiday, except in the UK. There are very broad swathes of Europe that are largely unvaccinated... “...so they’re pretty vulnerable to new variants, be it Indian or otherwise sweeping across the continent. Having people flying around and coming back with whatever local variant they run into, that is not a good idea. Cornwall or Bournemouth is not so bad".

The Treasury Committee has just released dozens of texts that David Cameron bombarded officials, ministers and SPADS with over 3 months of last year to try to save Greensill. He even lobbied his old nemesis Michael Gove. Some are toe curling, like this first one to Tom Scholar: Or this one, promising "an elbow bump or foot tap" along with the Chancellor.

Queen's Speech Summary: 25 bills, including two draft ones. 5 major themes:
1. Levelling Up + building back better from Covid. Lots of proposals but only three named bills for this - Skills and Post-16 Education Bill, Planning Bill and the Health and Care Bill. 2. Brexit: Three bills to enact post EU national regimes on areas like subsidies and to set up 8 freeports - the Subsidy Control Bill, Procurement Bill and National Insurance Contributions Bill.

The latest from inside Government on the new vaccine delay: the problem is with AstraZeneca and its international manufacturing and supply chain, rather than it's UK factories. I'm told its the same issues that are affecting the EU’s supply and roll out (1). AZ is not alone. Two others also having manufacturing problems, Johnson & Johnson + Moderna. Only Pfizer is delivering on schedule. But AZ are still yet to hit their '2 million doses a week by mid February' promise, made in January. “They’re late’, says a senior Govt figure (2)