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Toby Nangle Profile picture
Toby Nangle
@toby_n
London & Stroud. “Veteran” fund manager. @resfoundation assoc. @baring_found trustee. Anti-anti-woke. @FGRFC_Official fan. I’m @tobyn or @toby_n6 on other sites
Jun 28 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Thinking about ways to boost investment in the UK? This BoE survey of SMEs who actually invest is instructive.

First up, what *is* investment? bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bull…
Image Next, where does the money come from?

(Usually profits.) Image
Apr 27, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
This @bankofengland speech on Bulk Purchase Annuities is really interesting bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2023/ap… As outlined in terrific @JosephineCumbo piece, they’re worried about what happens when pension funds all rush to buy out. on.ft.com/3Lgc6So
Mar 4, 2023 • 14 tweets • 6 min read
Saturday morning thread on new @DWPgovuk report on pension undersaving!

44% of Brits on track for UNCOMFORTABLE retirement. gov.uk/government/sta… 44% is % that are not on track to hit pre-tax replacement rates, scaled by income, including state pension
Feb 16, 2023 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
How smarts and income overlap - or not. @KuperSimon takes a look at the Davos Fallacy.

The underlying study he cites is really interesting. 🧵
ft.com/content/f716be… First up, distribution of wages amongst those Swedish men with top cognitive score (9). c17% of the top 1% earners taking home SEK2m (c€200k) scored a 9. I guess this qualifies as 'largely separate groups'.
Jan 31, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
UK private sector employers have put c£628bn into pension schemes since 2004. Employees have put in a further c£116bn. Of the total £744bn in private sector pension contributions made since 2004, 88% have been to Defined Benefit schemes.
Jan 27, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Missed this @ONS analysis: Greater inequality in private pension wealth than in total net wealth. ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… Richest 10% of UK population owns 64% of pension wealth.

Poorest 50% own less than 1%.
Jan 26, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
New business survival rate: feels ambiguous for productivity growth? Image This is really what I was looking for: proportion of businesses by age in the UK. Seems amazing that close to all UK firms (by number) were founded in my lifetime! gov.uk/government/sta… Image
Jan 19, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
One of these countries is not like the others. Here's how wealth is split among the population of each country
Jan 17, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The modal married adult in Britain (more than a quarter) lives in a hhld with >£1m net wealth. ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… Image Split by age and wealth, under-16s tend to live in lower-wealth hhlds. c.50% of over-45s live in hhlds with >£500k net wealth. Image
Oct 26, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Public sector productivity in the UK is pretty dire. But why? Quick thread🧵 Productivity worst in high-touch human sectors - social care, childcare, education - dominated by the public sector. They cost more and more.

Dead hand of the state?

Or Baumol’s cost disease?
/2
Sep 27, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Really get that LDI sounds sufficiently super-boring & technical that you can prob get away with ignoring it.

And you can.

Just not if you want to understand long gilt moves. Here’s @bondvigilantes today.
Sep 26, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Bond mkt friend just now:
Actuaries: higher rates = sell equity, buy bonds
Real life: higher rates = sell equity to fund mtm losses

I wrote a couple of months ago about the big collateral call facing pension funds as yields rise. Might be worth a reread.
ft.com/content/839276… (I actually really like actuaries)
Jul 24, 2022 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
Keep thinking about this chart from @resfoundation. So many countries both richer & more equal than the UK. economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/reports/stagna… We don't tend to think of ourselves as poorer than many on the chart.

Top decile UK households are NOT poorer than almost all of their counterparts. Median households certainly are.
Jul 15, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The kids are not alright deliverypdf.ssrn.com/delivery.php?I… Paper looks at the staggered intro of Facebook to US universities, and the impact on student mental health. Tl;dr: it's bad.
Jun 29, 2022 • 17 tweets • 6 min read
I'm a long time fan of @ricardo_hausman's Atlas of Econ Complexity but have only just now seen the Metroverse project. Incredible stuff. metroverse.cid.harvard.edu Want to explore the economy of - idk - Swindon?
Jun 28, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
We go on about 'democracy', but may mean different things by the term. idea.int/gsod-indices/s… The tide from democracy towards authoritarianism is not one way, it just feels like it sometimes. idea.int/gsod/global-re…
Jun 12, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Just read @ianmulheirn's paper on UK wealth - am very much in agreement. Quick precis. wealthandpolicy.com/wp/BP122_Sourc… UK hhld wealth exploded higher after ranging 3-4x GDP for decades. Possible rationales: 1) result of savings/ increased growth in income assoc with assets (Piketty); 2) fall in discount rate
Jun 11, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Just made my first @tableaupublic story. Very intuitive bit of software - wish I'd learned it years ago! public.tableau.com/shared/CM9HQM6… 1. Global population split into countries that are each assigned @freedomhouse categories based on civil and political rights performance.
Dec 15, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Would love to know what current wholesale prices would mean for typical UK household in terms of energy bill. ft.com/content/2eac05… Forward UK electricity prices have risen 10X over the past year.
Dec 11, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
How to recognise and manage externalities attached to digital capitalism?

Too big a topic?

Try this excellent piece by @jamestplunkett who writes & thinks so clearly. medium.com/@jamestplunket… I reckon all honest free marketeers actively seek more complete markets by seeking to incorporate negative externalities.
Sep 9, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Germany just edges the UK when it comes to hours spent gaming per week, but it's between us and Japan when it comes to binge-gaming. limelight.com/resources/whit…. Surprisingly, 2020 saw a fall in time spent gaming across all age groups