I write philosophical essays, covering topics like mortality, metaphysics, consciousness, the human experience etc
My Substack: https://t.co/oGGutI3gqy
May 23, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
This is something people need to understand about sub-kiloton nuclear weapons.
Everyone shrieks in horror when talking about the practical details, but a small-yield nuclear weapon does not produce a nuclear fallout. Even kiloton weapons like Hiroshima didn't produce fallout.
The radiation is from the immediate electromagnetic flash, not from the fallout (which only happens with much larger bombs).
Hiroshima was immediately habitable after the bomb. The radiation came from the initial exposure to the flash.
May 23, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
To reiterate my position
Russia could change the West's entire approach by showing a genuine intention & ability to use sub-kiloton tactical nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war.
It could exit the treaty banning nuclear tests, do tests, and announce Crimea as a nuclear red line.
The key is to show genuine intent and ability. Not empty words, but stark images of their use in testing grounds, and an official announcement on Crimea's special status as a nuclear red line for the Russian Federation.
May 23, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Russians imbued with Ukrainian ideology are (unsurprisingly) fierce and formidable. In fact, that describes Ukraine as a whole.
Lions led by donkeys was a term to describe the British in WW1. It could also be used in this context to describe the Russians (the Velikaya ones).
May 21, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Anyone else getting tired of these unfalsifiable hypotheses everywhere?
Some examples:
- A retreat is actually a fire trap for the enemy.
- Complaining about a shortage is tricking the enemy into thinking you're weak.
- Getting pushed back is the enemy preparing a withdrawal.
There's no test of whether these hypotheses are true.
If your side still defeats the enemy in the end, then this is enough for people to say "Aha! See! I told you there was no setback. It was all part of the victory plan."
People just never admit problems. That's all it is.
May 7, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
People also forget how huge of an advantage it is for Ukraine that it doesn't have to worry about all the tiny but essential things which normally occupy most a government's attention.
They don't have to create their own food ration packs, they don't have to procure spare parts,
even socks for heaven's sake. They have Western clothes. They have Western defibrillators, western ambulances, western generators, western hospital beds, etc.
All of these things Russia has to make and do itself, Ukraine can dedicate itself exclusively to combat preparation.
May 7, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
There are two schools of thought among non-doomer pro-RU analysts.
One, in my opinion, is a comical view of Russia's dominance on the battlefield. They think Russia has 10x more lethality than UKR, 10x fewer deaths, and hasn't suffered a serious defeat throughout this whole war.
The other side (to which I belong) believes that Russia has put just enough effort and resources into this war to beat Ukraine, but that this is by no means an overwhelming force which can easily win the war without suffering a bloody nose and some serious bruises.
May 7, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
If there is a campaign to destroy the political leadership of Ukraine, it will take some time to formulate and create an action plan.
It's not one of those things you can do overnight. It took the US a fairly long time to do it in their Middle East campaigns.
The SBU doesn't hang out in a beer garden in central Kiev. They're aware that they're in constant danger.
May 6, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
That word is floating around again: "doomer"
Just to be clear, the argument isn't that Russia is doomed or even in danger. The argument is that this drama isn't a psyop. The tensions between Prigozhin and the MoD are real, and there is shell hunger/high losses.
Bakhmut will be captured, and Russia will defeat the coming counter-offensive. This remains the likely outcome over the next few weeks and months.
However, the political tension re: Wagner vs the MoD will remain an underlying issue for the Russian government.
May 5, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Just wondering, what's the return on investment from this so-called "psyop"?
"This will lure more Ukrainian soldiers into the Bakhmut meat grinder" - OK but they control only 5% of the city, hasn't this game gone on long enough now?
The ROI better be amazing. I'm waiting.
A million UKR soldiers are going to waltz into Bakhmut thinking everything is OK, then they all get surrounded and say "what da!", then Shoigu & Prigozhin do a joint press conference saying "lmfao, we were kidding, it was all theatre. And no one died either. Everything is good😀"
May 3, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I don't want to be "that guy", but how is this a red line?
And what would it mean for this red line to be crossed? Some pointless strike on a Ukrainian government building?
All red lines have been crossed already. There's a war. Hundreds of thousands of people are dying.
Those missiles would be put to much better use on ammo dumps, railway hubs, air defence complexes, etc.
Feb 23, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
It's pretty clear Wagner has suffered KIA on a similar (pound-for-pound) scale to the Ukrainian army and the Donbass militias.
One indication of this is how normal the subject of death is. You can tell when it's starting to become "normal". It gets talked about differently.
Prigozhin's badge today was pretty significant.
Feb 23, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
When Westerners compare retaking Crimea to other weird irredentist claims, it shows how ahistorical these people are.
Up until the 2014 crisis, I didn't even know Crimea was supposed to belong to Ukraine. I only know about Crimea because of things like the Crimean War and WW2.
The only time Crimea ever came up in a conversation was when discussing Russian history.
Feb 23, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
These visits are almost all Zelensky does atm.
What's remarkable is how pointless they are.
This one is worth highlighting because the it was a quick conversation about Spain "studying the possibility of sending 10 tanks instead of 6" and maybe some air defence.
Even meetings with some of the more central figures like Duda are quick and could easily be done via representatives in Kiev and not through full-on visits by a head of government/state.
It's all a big show.
Feb 22, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Pretty cool seeing Rybar discuss his own map on Solovyov Live.
Tatarsky was there too, which is also cool.
Feb 22, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
One of the most ridiculous takes from yesterday is that big displays of strength and national unity are un-Russian...
As is shown today, Putin is perfectly capable of doing this, and the Russian people are hungry for events like this.
Also, Medvedev went hard today as well.
Feb 21, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Ukraine has the benefit of constant adrenaline and fear of failure, which keeps them on their toes and eliminates complacency.
Russia, as the superior power, can fall into complacency. Apart from troops at the front, there is always a risk of falling into complacency.
I hate complacency and all its manifestations.
Feb 19, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
When debating what will happen to Ukraine, some people say things like "Hm, that would cause tension. Western Ukraine wouldn't like that."
When people say that, it's like their brain just glitched.
This war *is* that tension. It is the purest manifestation of that argument.
It honestly blows my mind when people think that Galician nationalists should have a prominent say in the post-war order.
Are you nuts? What is this war in your eyes?
War is imposing your will when an opponent refuses to concede something which is existential for both sides.
Feb 19, 2023 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
A long-term guarantee of Ukraine being Russia-oriented is Donetsk becoming the capital city of Ukraine.
Ukraine should be run by a commission of governors from the currently-liberated territories. No need to import governors from Velikaya Rus. Let Little Russia govern itself.
When Donetsk is safe from shelling, work should immediately begin on not just restoring it, but preparing it for a capital city status.
That means resuming the subway construction project, rebuilding the airport, building impressive government quarters, etc.
Feb 18, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
This analogy fails is because this isn't as existential as Napoleon or Hitler. This isn't an invasion headed towards Moscow
Russia has lost wars before due to a lack of perseverance. There is plenty of precedent for Russia losing wars, without Russia being conquered or something
Defeating Hitler wasn't a "special military operation".
Feb 18, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The British establishment is probably the most talkative country in terms of the Ukraine war, and I've heard multiple complaints on the radio/the news from British military commentators that Ukraine is focusing too much on Bakhmut
As in, they are genuinely frustrated at Ukraine.
They think it's subtracting from Ukraine's counter-offensive potential.
It's interesting to hear them sound frustrated at Ukraine. I haven't heard that tone before.
Feb 17, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I find it astonishing when Europeans talk boastfully about their countries when their capital cities are complete failures.
Take a wrong turn from Tourist Square in any of these places and you're in a rap music video.
How can they not see or acknowledge their own failures?
It's a fucking massive meme online, and yet you have these boomers who think "everything's fine! Stockholm, Brussels, Paris, Berlin, London, Malmö, these are lovely places to visit 😎"
It's like...BRUH, WHAT FUCKING PLANET ARE YOU LIVING ON?? Do you not see what we see???
