Long weekend energy thoughts from world famous energy analyst Dan Payne at NBC: 2024e STRIP; US$78.02/bbl WTI (+3% W/W), C$101.12/bbl EDM (+3% W/W), C$84.16/bbl WCS (+6% W/W), C$3.26/mcf AECO (FLAT W/W) >>> XEG +6% W/W Inflections to Return of Capital – Given the strength in the commodity, we are increasingly looking towards accelerating inflections to return of capital, particularly as WCP jacked its dividend by 26% (to a 6% yield under an inflection to 75% return of FCF from 50%)

Energy thoughts from Dan Payne’s weekend note: This week with a focus of OFS. 2024e STRIP; US$75.31/bbl WTI (+4% W/W), C$95.84/bbl EDM (+5% W/W), C$79.47/bbl WCS (+5% W/W), C$3.27/mcf AECO (+3% W/W) >>> XEG +4% W/W. Thread: OFS Majors Review. OFS Majors second quarter results largely echoed the sentiment reflected by recently published Dallas Fed Energy Survey, although offered more distinction, granular detail and visibility in the outlook to support our thesis for our domestic OFS coverage.

Credit to Peters & Co., some interesting charts to better understand an evolving Cdn energy sector…
a) lagging cost of capital (valuation) rarely last forever.
b) historically M&A market had been a solution.
c) buyers need a multiple gap to consolidate in size/frequency. Compressing P/NAV valuations