Ok just seen the front pages about 'sicknote culture'. These arguments are just full of holes.
Yes we should care about work and health, but top priority should be helping people *out of work already* not those who take time off sick.

First on Fit Notes, this is data since 2019: So it's basically flat, save for the lockdowns (we don't have comparable data pre 2019).
But here's same graph showing those issued in total, for mental health and where reason isn't recorded.
Reailty is we DON'T KNOW why vast majority are issued, and mental health isn't rising.

No wonder govt has suppressed this sanctions evaluation for so long gov.uk/government/pub…; hard to think how it could be any worse.
Sanction makes you more likely to leave benefit but no more likely to get a job - and if you do find work you earn less.

But worst of all... ... having known since 2018 that or approach was badly failing, rather than concluding we should sanction FEWER people govt has ended up sanctioning MORE.
Post-pandemic, 1 in 12 people are under sanction. Is impossible to justify this now.

This stuff about £70k cost per extra job hugely over-simplifies and I think is unfair.

It's:

- Skewed by pension and childcare reforms
- A partial measure of benefits
- Point-in-time

Real costs of most measures are lower, and worthwhile.

Quick thread
bbc.co.uk/news/business-… On how it's skewed, this is my take on the cost per additional job, per measure, using the OBR data.

- £90k for free childcare;
- £80k for pensions bung;
- £16k for Universal Support;
- £10k for UC childcare;
- £2k for parent conditionality.

i.e. the top two drive the average

👏 to @OBR_UK today.
Excellent Economic and Fiscal Outlook (as ever) but in particular see Box 2.2, where they've set out estimates of the additional impacts on employment from the key parts of the jobs package today.
obr.uk/efo/economic-a…
Suggests +110k in work... ... which raises the forecast participation rate by about 1/4 of a percentage point (dotted blue vs blue line).
But still only gets it up to what was being forecast in November, and well below the 2020 rate.
So clear permanent impact of pandemic and Brexit.

Just a quick thread on #Budget2023 jobs measures, handy factsheet here: gov.uk/government/pub…

Lots to welcome: (voluntary) employment support, new health/ work partnerships, childcare support.

But a big missed opportunity on employers, and unhelpful focus on sanctions... First on employment support, the two really big ticket items are a new 'universal support' programme for people with long-term health conditions and expansion in work coach support for people on ESA/ UC health groups. Each ~£1bn spend over next 5 yrs.

Here's a thread on the evidence on benefit sanctions, given reports that #Budget2023 will introduce an (even) "tougher" regime.

It is an appallingly bad idea.

First up is this excellent, thorough and sobering review by @Serena_Pattaro et al.
eprints.gla.ac.uk/261161/ So if those are the headline findings, what about impacts for disabled people specifically?
Second then, this by @BenBaumberg.
Ben is more measured than me, but pretty hard to avoid the conclusion that it would be very damaging and counterproductive.
kar.kent.ac.uk/61793/

Today's jobs stats: some signs of improvement which is good news. Employment up, unemployment flat, economic inactivity down.

But 3 worries:

- Long-term ill health up again
- Employment for older people still weak
- Youth participation down

A LOT to do at Budget tmrw...
🧵 First up and most worrying. Slightly lower econ inactivity is due to a HUGE fall in student numbers (yellow), while long-term ill health has ticked back up again (blue).
Now above 2.5 million again.

Oh dear. V poor jobs data again today - huge rise in 'economic inactivity' and employment falling, even as unemployment plumbs new depths; while real pay is down for 9th month in row as inflation spirals.
Need to do far more to help ppl into work and help firms fill jobs.
🧵 This shows more clearly trends since start of pandemic. Half million more out of work, driven by 600k+ rise in econ inactivity, esp in last few mths. Employment also still down on pre-crisis, with unempl lower too.
What's driving the rise in econ inactivity?

Today's jobs stats: mixed picture.
Decent jobs growth at last; but I'm worried labour shortages are fuelling private sector pay that we can't sustain, pushing up prices (even as inflation cuts 'real' pay).
Need to raise participation, reinvest £2bn+ underspend, support growth.
🧵 First up, lots of bad news. 'Real' pay (yellow lines) still sharply negative - close to weakest in two decades. This is what runaway inflation does, as 'nominal' pay growth is strong (blue) running above 4%/ yr.
Even in 2000s, it barely averaged 3%.

Today's jobs stats are pretty grim.
Largest fall in real pay on record, 'missing million' in labour market, highest worklessness due to ill health in two decades.
Crisis we prepared for isn't the one we've got - need to reinvest the £bns set aside for mass unemployment ASAP...🧵 The worst news today is on pay. Graph above shows nominal pay still ~4% and bonuses dropping back a bit, but rocketing inflation meaning real pay is falling by 3%+.
Pay down in real terms for nearly every industry compared with April 2021, with public services faring worst 2/

So new jobs data out 7am tmrw, which will tell us how the labour market was doing in Feb-Apr quarter.
Worth flagging that last month, the single month estimate for March was incredibly good (see arrows below), which means there's a chance that we may see very strong data tmrw... For example, if we have the same estimates for April as we did for March, then this is what would happen to the quarterly headline figures.
Sharp rise in employment and falls in inactivity in partic.
Of course this may not happen, as the data tends to go up and down.
But...

Super quick thread on labour market flows data, also out today.
Still very high numbers of people starting and leaving jobs (below graph combines job entries, exits and changes).
Slight dip in most recent quarter on people leaving a job, but still v high. Job starts up a bit. 1/ The fall in job exits overall is mainly due to fewer people becoming workless - as job-to-job moves remain at basically highest ever. Remarkable level of labour market dynamism - generally good for wages, but hard work for employers, esp. with low unemployment 2/

Today's jobs figures, thread below!
TL;DR:
Good-ish news on pay and unemployment, but being driven by labour shortages post-Covid/ Brexit and risks even higher inflation.
So we need action to boost labour supply, growth and incomes - not just dampen demand thru interest rates 1/ Let's start with good news. Pay growth of 10% in March (dotted blue) - highest in at least 20 years and has kept wages above inflation (dotted yellow).
Regular pay growth is weaker tho (solid lines), showing how far private sector bonuses - across industries - are driving this 2/

Oh boo, no more weekly data from ONS!
I'd largely stopped using this to be fair, but there is a cool tab on numbers who have recently started or are waiting to start a new job - so I'll put that in the briefing today, for the first time in a year or so but last time ever😢 In fact here's the data - number of people who started or are waiting to start a new job cf. same week in three years pre-pandemic. Dotted line is 4-wk moving average.
V useful actually, suggests job starts still substantially above pre-pandemic. So...

Today's jobs figures are really poor (again).
Thread below, but TL;DR:
- Despite record vacancies, labour force is shrinking - Despite 4% pay growth, high inflation means real pay falling too.
- Falling pay, high worklessness, labour shortages will make living standards worse. But the longer story is that there's four big problems.
First, falls in unemployment are not good news. Now clearly due to people leaving the labour market entirely, not going back to work.
See below - most recent quarter is yellow, rest of pandemic is blue. 600k fewer in work.

So new Labour Market Stats tmrw.
Will just be a short briefing from us due to Easter, but three things to look out for will be unemployment, worklessness and pay...

On unemp, it'll fall again (it's a three month avg, weak Nov data will drop out and Dec/ Jan were both strong)
1/ So barring a really weak Feb (which is unlikely) then it'll be 3.8% or maybe even 3.7%.
Latter would be lowest since 1974. Lots of other countries also seeing record low unemp as demand rises and participation falls.
However... more important will be the data on inactivity 2/

My heart sinks when I hear Ministers/ Prime Minister talk about campaigns to "get people off welfare and into work".
I've two problems with it.

First is language, which Catherine put much better than I could in the excellent @CovidRealities project:
covidrealities.org/learnings/writ…

1/ Second is scope.
Our ambition should be that EVERYONE who wants help to find work can get it, regardless of whether you're "on welfare" (or the right bit of welfare).

Especially when there's over a million jobs that want people.

We need a proper public employment service 2/

I really despair at this continued use of PAYE figures as 'showing record employment' - e.g. Prime Minister leaning heavily on it at PMQs today.
We do not have 'record employment'. The official measure is below.
It's 600k lower than pre-pandemic, and the recovery is stalling.
1/ PAYE is a partial measure from payrolls (as PM said). It shows payrolls are back above pre-crisis, which the official 'employee' data shows too albeit with different trend. But the reasons for these difference matter, as the 'record' isn't *just* cos self-employment is lower 2/

Today's jobs stats: ignore headlines about record employment and low unemployment.
Sadly the jobs recovery has stalled, with employment stuck and economic inactivity ticking up.
Being driven by older people and young people outside education.
We need to address this. Thread... 1/ First the headlines: unemployment nearly back to pre-crisis (black dot in middle), with big falls in most recent quarter.
But this isn't leading to higher employment - which is stuck 600k below pre-covid (and same as figure last month). 'Inactivity' is up by 400k 2/

IF the Employment Bill has been dropped, then below is what the govt is dropping.

Statutory basis for single enforcement body; protection for insecure workers, pregnancy, unpaid caring; 'flex by default' etc.

You don't 'level up' by leaving this out... really poor Confirmation that Employment Bill has been dropped.
Not a huge surprise, but really disappointing.

How can govt say it'll "support jobs and improve regulation" when they appear to be dropping reforms to enforcement, protection and flex working??

gov.uk/government/pub…

Today's jobs figures are ok - PAYE and earnings data is strong; but LFS measures a bit weaker than last month (still better than feared a few months back). Dragged down by v weak December data.
Worrying signs on long-term unempl and insecure work - thread below... 1/ Headlines first - left graph shows total changes since crisis began on LFS measures, with the quarterly change in yellow. Right hand side is HMRC PAYE data.
Some health warnings on LFS, but jobs impact clearly bottoming out. 2/