1) After analyzing 82 million trades on Upbit XRP/KRW, I found something very interesting...

A $5 billion one directional selling pipeline running 24/7 for almost a year

Read along 🧵 2) It started with yesterday's price action. -57M XRP in CVD over 17 hours. It looked insane. So I ran forensic queries - bot fingerprinting, iceberg detection, wash trade checks

The selling was real. Algorithmic. 61% of trades fired within 10ms.

Single bot running 17 hours straight with one 33 second pause

(1/9) $BTC had its worst day in over 3 years on February 5th as it dropped -16.7% from $71.7k to $59.8k

I analyzed 175 million trades and 104k liquidations across Binance, Bybit, and OKX to understand what happened

Thread on the microstructure: (2/9) Market efficiency degraded 84% during the event

Baseline: $75M to move BTC 1%
Asia: $52M per 1%
Europe: $42M per 1%
NY: $31M per 1%
Capitulation: $12M per 1%

By midnight, the market was operating at 16% of normal liquidity depth (Binance perps as ref.)

$OM dumped -92% ($5.00 to $0.37) in 1 hour

Everyone's blaming the team and guessing what happened

I pulled over 15 million trades from Binance & Bybit

Here's what really happened 👇 Everything I have analyzed so far says this actually wasn’t a team sell-off

This was a perp-driven nuke with forced unwinds and panic cascading into spot

Leading up to the major candle that printed at 18:28 UTC, there was very little spot selling pressure (around -100k USD on Binance)

(1/6) We have not seen a real supply shock yet

If $BTC ETF buying continues near this pace, it's inevitably coming

Order flow has clearly shown there has NOT been any significant buying on the open market to fulfill flows yet (2/6)

64% of the circulating supply hasn't moved in at least a year (holders continuing to HODL, less likely to immediately sell)

That means MAX 7 million BTC are available (likely much less because of exchanges holdings)

Around a million of those are already in ETFs...