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Trent Telenko Profile picture
Trent Telenko
@TrentTelenko
Married father of four great kids, Retired US DoD Civil Servant, Section 22 Special Interest Group list admin, Chicagoboyz-dot-net history blogger
🥥🌴🌊☕️Coffee&Robots🤖🌊🥥🌴🇺🇦 Profile picture Homac Profile picture Dame Chris🌟🇺🇦😷 #RejoinEU #FBPE #GTTO🔶️ Profile picture DA Profile picture Geoff B Profile picture 468 subscribed
Sep 23 • 31 tweets • 11 min read
Given the latest failure of the Russian Sarmat ICBM...

...it is time to ask some hard questions about the combat readiness of the RU nuclear triad.

Extraordinary claims of Russian nuclear readiness now require extraordinary evidence🧵
1/ This is the 4th failed test attempt of the "combat operational" RS-28 Sarmat Heavy ICBM.

The RS-28 is a derivative of the original R-36M / SS-18 which was Ukrainian built and maintained until 2014.

2/
Sep 18 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
This is no surprise.

People saying Ukrainians could not maintain F-16's were and remain utter fools and tools for people who want Ukraine to lose.🤢🤮

1/
Image I've been saying this about the maintenance capabilities of the PSU for years.

They have an economy that is deeply penetrated by computers because of their egalitarian wealth distribution.

This makes US F-16 style two level maintenance easy peasy.
2/
Sep 18 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
This Foreign Policy article did not age well:

The False Promise of Ukraine’s Deep Strikes Into Russia By Stephen Biddle, Foreign Affairs:
“Hitting Faraway Targets Will Not Tip the Balance of the War”

1/ The combination of technological/logistical incompetence, economic ignorance, and military-historical illiteracy as Stephen Biddle dropped in that article makes me despair about the competence of the US national security experts versus drone airpower.


2/
Sep 15 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
This is the visual representation of "Meaconing" style jamming. ⬇️

Per Wikipedia:

"Meaconing is the interception and rebroadcast of navigation signals. These signals are rebroadcast on the received frequency,

1/ ...typically with power higher than the original signal, to confuse enemy navigation. Consequently, aircraft or ground stations are given inaccurate bearings."

A more technical explanation of Meaconing is at the link below⬇️

2/
 wasyresearch.com/meaconing-the-…
Sep 14 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Russian military manpower stupidity like this⬇️

1/
Image ...and like this...⬇️



2/ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/390…
Sep 14 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The Biden-Sullivan Administration has nine Congressional work days left to process it's remaining billions of Presidential Drawdown Authority.

I expect it to fail to do anything because the DC "De-Escalation" crowd wants Ukraine to lose.

1/
Image The DC escalation manager arse-wipes are happy to backstab their own party to self-promote.

If I weren't a 33 & 1/3 year DoD quality bureaucrat, it would boggle my mind.

But I've seen careerist stuff like this far too often⬇️

2/
Sep 14 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
If ever there was an example of self destructive groupthink...

...it is is Biden-Sullivan Administration National Security Council effort to trash Ukraine that damages the Democrats at a multiplicity of levels.

1/ @JakeSullivan46, Kirby etc. are digging their heels in.

They are so deep into carteerist cover your assets (CYA) they are happy to burn Harris/Walz campaign buy creating Russian sanctuaries from which to launch genocidal strikes on Ukrainian civilians
2/
 reuters.com/world/no-chang…
Sep 13 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Biden-Sullivan Administration statements like this will not help VP Harris with Ukrainian-American voters in Pennsylvania and Michigan.🤢🤮⬇️

1/ You have to wonder at this point if Pres. Biden wants Trump to win, given how the Pentagon media flack is stomping all over VP Harris's political advertising.

2/2
 politico.com/newsletters/na…
Sep 13 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This is an interesting post, not just for what happened to the @LarrySchweikart account, but because for some reason you can't see the bookmark addition (N to N+1) of this post

But it showed up in my bookmarks...strange.

It is not the only thing strange here.

1/ The @LarrySchweikart account received this notice from an account on X that was phishing other accounts and taking them over for blackmail money.

2/ Image
Sep 10 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
This still from the Russian video below is what American lawyers call "...an admission against interest."

The Russian tank shell logistics supply chain is short of fuzes for high explosive shells, lots of reasons.

RuAF logistical dysfunction with HE shells & fuzes🧵
1/
Image Military explosive charges are built in stages.

That is, the fuze is a chain of very small/volatile explosives (primer & detonator), to a bigger less sensitive charge in the fuze (booster) to set off the main explosive charge.

A fuze is the most expensive part of a shell.

2/
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Sep 8 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
Pay very close attention to this requiem on Russian mortar shell logistics in the age of drones.

Moving mortar shells to a position close to the front under FPV drones kills those moving the shells in a continuous metronome.

Logistical Professionalism🧵
1/
Image "Amateurs talk strategy while professionals talk logistics."

It is the unprofessional silence of the Field Artillery crowd on X about shell motor transport logistics in the age of drones that impeaches them.⬇️

2/ Image
Sep 7 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The moral collapse of the Biden-Sullivan Administration is now complete.

They are providing Russia an "ATACMS Sanctuary" for genocidal attacks on the Ukrainian civilian populations.

It is a de facto political alliance with Evil.

1/ @jakeSullivan and Finer have one agenda - save Russia from itself.

Russia started this war as a colonial "Special Military Operation" to exterminate Ukrainian political/intellectual elites, which has now extended to a policy of Ukrainian genocide⬇️

2/
Sep 7 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
There are times in the Russo-Ukrainian War I really want to "head desk" at some of the stupid I've seen as a military historian.

One of those things is barge logistics.😖

A thing I have been hammering on for years on X...

1/
 newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russian-f…
Image ...along with trucks and Ukraine notices just now?!?

WTF, over...🤦‍♂️

Nazi Marinefährprahm (MFP, naval ferry barge) were key logistical units of the Germans in the Baltic, Black, North and Mediterranean seas.


2/ en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marinef%C…


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Sep 3 • 15 tweets • 6 min read
This X post From @Prune602 I've pasted below is from a long & crunchy data filled thread looking at the crashing Russian railway system capacity.

The thread is screaming several things at me about AFU strategic bombing strategy and its objective for the Russian economy.

1/
Image The biggest "Ah-Hah!" in the thread was the observation that the Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries and depots were less an oil campaign than a transportation campaign aimed at sucking up Russian rail capacity.

>>"Oil & Oil (Petroleum Products),

2/ Image
Sep 2 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
At 1,300 KIA/MIA a day, the Russians lose all the ground combat elements of a Russian division a week.

The drop in Russian artillery losses from 70 to 10 a day reflects either fewer tubes being used or an unwillingness to expose tubes w/o heavy drone jamming covering them.

1/ I am struggling to think of a post WW2 campaign with loss rates of a division per week.

Maybe the 1980's Iranian marsh offensives Iran-Iraq war?

Yet this is a material truth has not put a dent into the convictions in the DC elites around the Biden-Sullivan Administration

2/

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Sep 2 • 20 tweets • 8 min read
What is the thing that stands out the most in this Moscow video of an AFU drone striking a Russian refinery _IN_DAYLIGHT_?

IT'S WHAT'S MISSING.

Consider: Where are the VKS fighter jets?

Where Russian Drone Defense vs AFU strategic drone bombing🧵
1/ Ukrainian PSU Mig-29's are downing Shaheed's in daylight.

Where are the Russian fighter jets over Moscow?

2/
Sep 1 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
It appears the Ukrainian Kusk incursion has been accompanied by a new Security Service of Ukraine fixed wing FPV drone called the Gray Widow-1 that has a range of 50 km to stop Russian road & rail traffic.

AFU's Cut Rate Lancet in Kursk🧵
1/


Image
Image
Image The twin engine Gray Widow-2 was shown in the same article.

It is unclear what the range/payload of the FPV/loitering munition will be, but something significantly over 52 km is a good guess.

2/
 mil.in.ua/en/news/a-batc…
Image
Aug 31 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
Bwa-Ha-Ha-ha-ha...

I've seen pro-Russian trolls waving this IMF freak flag after one of my posts pointing out the history of how Russian agricultural sector collapse precedes a bigger economic collapse.

Let's look at the official Russian numbers, courtesy of Joe Bloggs.
1/ This is a spreadsheet comparing the hard numbers of US versus Russian economic growth of Jan 2018 - Dec 2023.

BLUF:

The US economy grew more.

2/
 Image
Aug 31 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
This is an English translation 🧵of a Russian language article describing the RuAF "final 10 km to the front line" motor transport logistics made up of donated and stolen civilian motor transport.

RuAF Mafia logistics🧵
1/ The Front-Line troops and Russian Army MP's are now drawing guns on one another as the Russian MP's latest leader in occupied Ukraine is trying to enforce a year-old order to confiscate "Non-standard" motor transport from the front-line troops.

2/
Aug 29 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
We see videos like this and there are still Western ground forces officers' denying that FPV's drones are a major battlefield threat to tanks.

The ability to steer an overmatching shaped charge to the weakest armor points on a tank requires a new approach to tank design.
1/ FYI, the highest US production rate for the M-1 Abrams at the height of the Cold War was 70 a month, 840 a year.

Pre-1979 tank designs were not built for top attack protection against major caliber shaped charge attacks FPV's deliver.

And it shows⬇️

2/
Aug 28 • 18 tweets • 8 min read
This is going to be my third 🧵on the AFU's Palyanitsa one way attack (OWA) Drone and the latest information on its cluster munitions payload per the briefing from the "Reporting from Ukraine" YouTube channel.

Palyanitsa Payload/Success Analysis🧵

1/
 In the first Palyanitsa thread I did a cost effectiveness analysis at a $300K price point for "American procurement realistic" numbers.

The actual Ukrainian price point of a Palyanitsa is $40K.

That's 75 for the price of one JASSM.

2/