@Blue_Bee_pllntr @noclador @GeoConfirmed @OSeredyuk @trbrtc @TilmanPlan4Risk @zcjbrooker @NinaWilsonStats ▪️Delay fuse can likely be set with a penetration accuracy of centimeters here, because impact velocity & exact composition of the target are known in advance.
▪️I presume Ukraine timed the explosion to the maximum load surface of the span & it penetrated roughly halfway: @Blue_Bee_pllntr @noclador @GeoConfirmed @OSeredyuk @trbrtc @TilmanPlan4Risk @zcjbrooker @NinaWilsonStats ▪️I marked an assumed ideal spot on the intact left side span, which is presumably a mirror image of the damaged right side bridge.
▪️If the segment is about ~6 meters tall, then they'd set the delayed fuse to about ~2 meters depth, to achieve maximum pressure from the explosion.

@elonmusk @LindseyGrahamSC ▪️Elon, good engineers look at data first: but instead of using old 2012 data from before Russia's 2014 invasion & ethnic cleansing, why don't you look at the 2019 election too, when the pro-Europe candidate got a much higher vote in areas threatened by Russia than elsewhere? 🤔 @elonmusk @LindseyGrahamSC ▪️Key “will of the people” data: Ukrainians' opinion of Russia & NATO “evolved” as reaction to invasion:
▪️2013: “Join NATO”: 𝟭𝟴%
▪️2014: 1st Russian invasion 🥷
▪️2014: “Join NATO”: 𝟰𝟴%
▪️2021: “Join NATO”: 𝟰𝟳%
▪️2022: 2nd Russian invasion 🥷
▪️2022: “Join NATO”: 𝟴𝟯%

▪️IMO “Business Insider” might be facing the biggest defamation lawsuit since “Gawker Media”, for smearing @elonmusk.
▪️The smear campaign raised numerous red flags: suspicious deep-out-of-the-money 1-day TSLA put contracts (short positions) before the story was published ...

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1528872338866860032

@elonmusk ▪️Receipts #1, thousands of “unusual” put options contracts were purchased at well over typical market price (the Implied Volatility premium of those options was above ~120% - normal is ~60-70%) shortly before the BI story broke:

https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1527429692768194560

@elonmusk @veespike @HillaryClinton @Twitter ▪️Fact check: false.
▪️Sussmann's single count indictment was widely criticized as politically motivated: he was indicted by Trump's hand-picked "special prosecutor" Durham.
▪️Fact: Sussmann was not employed by the Clinton Campaign when he reported the suspected crime to the FBI. @elonmusk @veespike @HillaryClinton @Twitter ▪️Durham indicted Sussmann without even 𝙤𝙣𝙘𝙚 interviewing the Clinton campaign, whether Sussmann was retained by them when he made the report about the DNS lookup records curiously linking the Trump campaign's server to the Russian oligarch-linked Alpha Bank... (He wasn't.)

▪️Elon, as a fellow Aspie I speak for many Tesla supporters:
▪️𝗽𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲 don't let yourself to be trolled so easily, &
▪️𝗽𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲 realize that you got successfully manipulated by “both sides”:
▪️which is harming the world's transition to sustainable energy... @elonmusk

1/ ▪️𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟭: You got unfairly attacked & trolled by the Loud Leninist Left, via proxies like Warren, Sanders & Reich.
▪️𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟮: You took the bait, to the delight of special interests: UAW, law firms, fossil fuel interests & legacy auto afraid of the FSD competition.

How to miss the 20 trillion dollars investment story of the century: "There's no Tesla Bot, only a guy dancing in a suit!"

@elonmusk has hidden the ~70% complete Tesla Robot in plain sight:

▪️Robot "brain": FSD chip
▪️Robot "body": Tesla powertrain
▪️Robot "teacher": Dojo

1/ 2/

Business model:

▪ Analysts expecting Tesla Robotics to sell robots, "distracting" from selling EVs, are missing the big picture.
▪️Tesla will not sell Tesla Robots but 𝗵𝗶𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝘂𝘁 millions of robots to generate labor income
▪️The global labor market: 𝟰𝟰 trillion $ (!)

Why did TSLA swing by -6% yesterday?

Because this week TSLA got shorted heavily via put options (again):

▪️at yesterday's $1,065 close est. put-options MM hedging was -31m shares,
▪️plus -25.8m equity short interest.

Total: -56.8m shares shorted, or 7% of the float (!).

1/ 2/

You may ask: what about the 146m shares delta hedging by calls?

Most of those are deep in the money quarterly LEAP calls with near-100% delta, which don't cause much MM selling or buying. They are shares-equivalent options positions.

The big news is not that Nikola has dropped their $2b lawsuit against Tesla, but that Tesla has successfully utilized their "nuclear arsenal" of EV patents.

"But @elonmusk open-sourced Tesla's patents, right?"

Correct, but by suing, Nikola violated the "good faith" terms:

1/

https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1478625459789258759

2/

▪️"A party is 'acting in good faith' for so long as such party and its related or affiliated companies have not: asserted, helped others assert or had a financial stake in any assertion of (i) any patent or other intellectual property right against Tesla [...]"

A media story:

▪️Biggest tech influencer ever with 65m Twitter followers jokes about quitting his day job to become an influencer.
▪️Gets "I'll coach you" joke reply from Mr. Beast who has 84m followers on YouTube.
▪️Media: "BREAKING: @elonmusk CONSIDERING QUITTUNG HIS DAY JOB"

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1469153995428085762

Exhibit #1:

𝗡𝗘𝗪𝗦: The $4,500 "UAW" union EV credits might be dropped after Senate Parliamentarian review.

"Zach Moller, a budget expert at the think tank Third Way, said the union requirements and other stipulations appear to be in a gray area of the Byrd rule"

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Whether a product is made by union workers has only incidental effects on the budget & might be illegal under current Senate rules.

Leaks suggest "prevailing wage" requirements, under which Tesla could easily qualify, because Tesla pays its workers more than union factories.

Let's sum up JP Morgan's "lawsuit" against Tesla:

▪️JP Morgan 𝙨𝙝𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙚𝙙 TSLA by writing thousands of calls (warrants) to Tesla with a strike of ~$50 & buying ~$140 calls: a so-called "bearish spread".
▪️They issued fake analyst price targets for years to suppress TSLA

1/

https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1462946720535429120

2/

▪️When their TSLA short position went against JP Morgan, they unilaterally & without any right to do so lowered the strike of the $140 calls to ~$100...
▪️JP Morgan's excuse to steal from Tesla was that Elon once tweeted: "Am considering taking Tesla private at $420."

The black Tesla Model Y below was probably made in Giga Berlin 🎉:

▪️No license plate, because pre-production unit. Since there's no delivery center nearby, there's no reason to have a plate-less car here.
▪️They want to start with Performance/Dual Motor units.
▪️@elonmusk: 🤐?

https://twitter.com/tobilindh/status/1462025916893302785

I'd say it's possibly the black Model Y seen leaving the factory floor this week.

🎉

https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1461330989632868360

@AswathDamodaran Professor Damodaran, I'd like to thank you for your honesty, for admitting that you were wrong about Tesla & for your self-reflection. Not a common trait among Tesla bears. I'm a long-time fan of your "Musings on Markets" blog - while disagreeing with your Tesla thesis. 🙃

1/ @AswathDamodaran 2/

Here's a list of key points where I think you are mistaken in your Tesla valuation:

▪️Why cap (net) margins at 16%? The fact that Tesla already has 30.5% gross margins despite 70% YoY hyper-growth expenses is a strong signal that operational efficiency hasn't peaked yet.

Shameless: the infamous $4,500 "UAW bribe" in the "Build Back Better Act" (H.R. 5376) excludes employee-owned US car factories, such as Tesla, even if they form a union (!).

It defines "Domestic Assembly Qualifications" in a way that requires 50%+ non-shareholder employees...

https://twitter.com/cleantechnica/status/1454334559810727937

Sources:

▪️Latest House version of the bill:
congress.gov/bill/117th-con…
▪️IRS (26 U.S. Code § 7701) code it references:
law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26…

See 7701(a)(46), it excludes unions with 50%+ shareholder-members.

I.e. Tesla workers would be excluded even if they formed a union ...

@nealboudette @earcos @elonmusk For every robotaxi projection that turned out to be too optimistic (during a pandemic year...), there's a dozen improbable feats Musk already accomplished:

✅ landing rockets,
✅ a million Teslas,
✅ launching astronauts,
✅ Space Internet,
✅ fastest production car, etc.

1/ @nealboudette @earcos @elonmusk 2/

Musk is a self-admitted, incorrigible optimist about deadlines, but he always delivers.

As a NYT journalist, why are you defining Musk by his failed self-imposed deadlines, instead of by what matters: by his successful accomplishments? 🤔

Tesla's all-time record deliveries of 184.8k vehicles is extremely impressive, given the countless Q1 headwinds:

❌ Q1 seasonally weakest (winter) quarter for auto sales: a 10-20% headwind
❌ Tesla had no Model S/X production due to the Plaid refresh: ~15k units missing

1/

https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1377974251177844742

2/

❌ China: the quarter was 10 days shorter due to the Chinese New Year and the calendar quarter being 2 days shorter. That's 10 days of missing sales & production days.
❌ US: some buyers were possibly waiting for the new federal EV incentives
❌ Samsung Texas factory shutdown

Large convolutional neural networks are computing-intense, with two distinct modes of operation:

✅ "training" an NN: over 100,000 GPU hours
✅ "inference": running an NN in the car

Tesla has built supercomputer-performance chips for both workloads.

blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2016/08/2…

1/

https://twitter.com/antonkanerva/status/1377919523593015296

2/

Tesla has yet to disclose details about their "Dojo" training chip, here's the CPU die layout of their inference chip.

The large integrated SRAM cells & the single-clock 96x96 matrix multiplicators allow Tesla HW3 boards to run large NNs at unmatched power efficiency.

Why the leak of record Tesla Q1 European deliveries is authentic IMO:

✅ figures internally consistent
✅ record EU Q1 ships
✅ awkward April 1 timing
✅ fake leak would avoid typos in business email
✅ fake leak would leak global numbers
✅ reliable source of @RandyVegetables

https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1377541061040607236

2/

✅ "Tesla authentic" language & non-obvious internal details a fake one with typos wouldn't know to replicate
✅ Timing of April 1 and AM European time is correct for the final figures to be summarized, and a rushed congratulatory email by a clearly proud EMEA team lead.

Why many Tesla investors are frustrated over Tesla's Bitcoin experiment.

@elonmusk describing money as "avoiding the inconvenience of barter" is a rare case of him misunderstanding the first principles of something utterly important: the history & role of money.

A thread.

1/

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1363007438455074825

2/

I realize that I'll lose followers over this - but this had to be said.

It is a commonly told story to economics students all over the world: money and coinage was created to replace unwieldy barter. Instead of exchanging goods, people exchanged valuable gold coins.

I have Gbit fiber Internet, yet I pre-ordered Starlink:

✅ Planned speeds 1-10 GBit/sec
✅ Cells are valuable, limited real estate, 𝙚𝙨𝙥𝙚𝙘𝙞𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙮 in populated areas
✅ Independent
✅ Full constellation much lower latencies than terrestrial Internet
✅ To support SpaceX

https://twitter.com/mortenlund89/status/1362671645241016323

2/

Especially the "Starlink cells are a first-come-first-served limited resource" is poorly understood.

Starlink receiver's high-tech phased array antennas, consisting of ~600 ASICs, allow very tight radio beams - but beam size is still a few kilometers wide on the ground.

Effects on Tesla/TSLA of today's US Senate runoff elections in Georgia.

1/

Polls are showing razor thin margins and the results won't be known for days: initially Republican incumbents are likely to lead, because in-person votes are counted first, which votes lean Republican. 2/

But once mail-in votes are counted too we'll know the final result - possibly within the next 2-3 days. The election is still (way) too close to call.