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https://twitter.com/borges__vitor/status/1527436883093078029There are now over 300 confirmed and suspected cases globally and at least 15 viral genome sequences shared publicly. The extent and trajectory of the outbreak is still incredibly hazy. Here, I wanted to give a word of caution on genomic epidemiology of monkeypox. 2/9
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1467245887357210624Continuing previous methods, if we partition case counts from @OurWorldInData using sequence data from @GISAID and apply a modeling approach from @marlinfiggins we get rapid rises in Omicron cases in South Africa, Denmark, Germany, the UK and the US. 2/12
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1469157770716872708As before, we partition case counts from @OurWorldInData using sequences from @GISAID into estimated Omicron, Delta and other cases, and we use this partitioning to infer variant-specific Rt and epidemic growth rate r (methods and code here github.com/blab/rt-from-f…). 2/10
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1467245887357210624Because of significant travel connections (
https://twitter.com/MOUGK/status/1464141177226158094) and extremely strong genomic surveillance by @CovidGenomicsUK, we should have early data from the UK about rate of spread outside of South Africa. 2/21