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“…there is nothing new in Wall Street….Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.” - 1923 | not investment advice
Philippe Bustros Profile picture Emil Cramer Profile picture 2 subscribed
Mar 4, 2022 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
1/Following up on this thread from @ChrisBloomstran it seems like a good time to re-visit the metrics on how much investor value ARK's active ETFs have destroyed. Here's a quick 🧵 with some different metrics... 2/I've gone through how much dollar value has been destroyed in prior threads so I won't re-hash those here, as most of the numbers are still relatively consistent with my last update:
Jan 5, 2022 • 29 tweets • 8 min read
Don't Cry For Me Arkkgentina!! ARK ETFs lost investors a whopping $12.6 BILLION last year while netting ARK a massive management fee payday (yay?). Here’s a 🧵recapping a wild year for the primary family of ARK ETFs ($ARKK, $ARKG, $ARKW, $ARKQ, $ARKF, $ARKX). Let’s dig in… 2/With 2021 behind us, it’s a good time to re-visit our friends over at ARK Invest to take a look under the hood at what went down last year. Obviously, 2021 wasn’t so bueno for the ARK funds – the flagship $ARKK lost 24% in a year when Qs and Spoos were up 27%. #notgood
May 26, 2021 • 4 tweets • 6 min read
@INArteCarloDoss @funwithnumberz @OpenOutcrier @DW3p4c @TheMarketDog @acpandy It’s telling to go back & look at filings from 2015-2018. ARK was generating sub-$1 MILLION in fee revenue across their ETFs for the 1st 3 yrs of existence. FY18 was first “big” fee rev yr, and the 4 active ETFs only brought in $8m. That is literally nothing. You cannot... @INArteCarloDoss @funwithnumberz @OpenOutcrier @DW3p4c @TheMarketDog @acpandy ...run a legitimate fundamental actively managed group of funds on that kind of revenue (or lack thereof). You wind up with insanely poor, inexperienced talent bc you can’t pay anyone a real bonus...but they did this for 4+ years. Fee revenue this year (Fy21) will likely...
May 21, 2021 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
THREAD: $IOVA - An ARK Case Study in Illiquid Positions.
Per my prior threads on ARK, I'm very focused on how "the game" has changed for their ETFs as AUM has exploded.

This week we got a classic example of this w/the $IOVA blow-up. Let's dig in... 2/On 5/18 after the close, $IOVA issued a PR announcing a delay in its license application for the company's skin cancer drug to 1H22. The bad news hit the stock, and a raft of price targets & downgrades followed into the morning of 5/19. Then things got even crazier...
May 14, 2021 • 23 tweets • 5 min read
THREAD: ARK Update - How the Reflexivity Trade Works in Reverse. As ARK ETFs are ripping off the lows today, here's an update on how things have gone over the last few weeks. The first chart is the state of inflows/redemptions for the 6active ARK ETFs on a 5day/21d rolling basis: 2/As you can see, this is the worst it has ever been on a 21-day basis, having eclipsed $3billion in redemptions thru yesterday. Still, it's tip of the iceberg kind of stuff relative to the peak we saw in inflows late-2020/early'21...
May 6, 2021 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
THREAD: one thing I struggle w/re: ARK is whether what happened yesterday w/ $NVTA is just a defect of the actively managed ETF model (at their size) or something more sinister. Let's use the NVTA situation yesterday as an example, bc there 2 explanations for what's going on... 2/The first explanation is: $NVTA is a large holding, they love the fundamentals, etc etc, the stock is down big on earnings/$400m share placement headline, and they want to add to your position. Fine, makes sense. The problem is, if they're buying 1.2m shares...
Apr 28, 2021 • 55 tweets • 12 min read
THREAD - MOAR ARK: @EricBalchunas recently noted $PATH now shows up as being owned across ALL 6 ARK active ETFs:


This brings up a v important topic that I only touched on briefly in prior threads re: ARK ETF Position Overlap/Correlation. Let's dig in... 2/Buried deep in the last super long thread were 2 correlation tables showing ARK active ETFs from Jan'20 and Dec'20 thru this year:

Long story short: ARKK/G/F/Q/W are all highly correlated, esp in recent months post-massive '20 inflows/AUM explosion...
Apr 21, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
1 MORE THREAD: There are several more angles you cld attack here re: $ARK & the Brett Winton "scam" quote from my other thread. 1 very basic thing is to look at what is going on w/recent trading as @DougKass has recently pointed out, esp now given their massive AUM... 2/The 1st place I'd look is $PRNT, ARK's own 3D Printing ETF. I haven't included $PRNT in any of my analysis bc even tho ARK manages this ETF, it's not active (ie it's passively managed based on a 3rd party 3D Printing Index). ARK charges 66bps in fees for the ETF per their site.
Apr 20, 2021 • 70 tweets • 18 min read
LONG THREAD: my last thread started out as a discussion about gaining an edge in fundamental investing by better understanding a given company's business strategy...and ended up dissecting #ARK specifically. Let's face it, ARK is fascinating. So sit back & let's dig in some more. 2/This is super duper long but I promise there's some good data if you stick around to the end. In the prior thread I left out what was maybe the most startling quote from @tracyalloway & @TheStalwart 's Odd Lots Feb podcast w/ARK's Head of Research Brett Winton. Here it is:
Apr 9, 2021 • 31 tweets • 7 min read
Thread: I just went back to @TheStalwart & @tracyalloway 's "Odd Lots" podcast w/ARK Head of Research Brett Winton from Feb. All of their pods are great, but this interview was especially interesting in light of the stir ARK caused w/their last $TSLA report/price target in March 2/During the course of the interview, they got into a discussion about how ARK hires new analysts and how they train them to make modeling assumptions. Winton's commentary here was particularly enlightening re: the heart of why ARK is often so controversial.